Pittsburgh Pirates Opening Day Roster Prediction, Start of Spring Training Edition

The pitching staff

There are few position groups, if any, in all of baseball that underachieved more in 2019 than the Pirate pitching staff. A staff that was expected to be among the best in the NL, posted a 5.18 ERA which was 26th out of 30 MLB teams.

Despite their struggles, the starting rotation is almost set in stone. Chris Archer, Joe Musgrove, Trevor Williams, and Mitch Keller are locked into the Opening Day group. This is a group with a lot of boom or bust potential.

Archer and Williams are both coming off the worst seasons of their careers, but prior to 2019 Archer was a multiple time American League All-Star and one of the best strikeout starters in the game. Meanwhile, Williams had quietly turned into one of the 10-12 best right-handed starters in the NL.

Both Musgrove and Keller pitched much better than their 2019 ERAs, and Musgrove took a big step forward next year. With both pitchers now being able to lean on their best pitch – their slider – more under new pitching coach Oscar Marin, both seem primed for big 2020 seasons.

The fifth and final rotation spot will be a battle between three pitchers – Chad Kuhl, Derek Holland and Steven Brault. Kuhl has not pitched in the Major since June 2018 due to Tommy John Surgery, Holland was signed on a minor league contract after a tumultuous 2019 season, and Brault is coming off an inconsistent 2019 season spent between the bullpen and the rotation. So, all three pitchers have different stories entering 2020.

Like the rotation, the bullpen has a lot of boom or bust potential. Keone Kela is one of the best relievers in the NL, but after that it is a bunch of question marks. After a dominant 2018, Kyle Crick was un able to throw strikes in 2019. However, a lot of this may have been due to off the field issues that are no long there. Edgar Santana missed 2019 due to Tommy John Surgery, Nick Burdi‘s season was cut short after less than 7 innings due to injury, Michael Feliz and Clay Holmes were maddeningly inconsistent, Chris Stratton is out of minor league options, and Geoff Hartlieb has all the talent in the world but needs to harness it. Richard Rodriguez is looking for a bounce back season after allowing entirely too much hard contact and too many home runs in 2019, and lefty Sam Howard is in the mix as well.

Whoever does not make the rotation between Kuhl, Holland, and Brault will be in contention for a bullpen spot, too. So will another veteran left-handed minor league free agent signing – Robbie Erlin, who, due to his past results and plus pitches, has to be close to a lock for the ‘pen.

Kela and Crick are locks for the ‘pen, so is Santana if he is healthy. With Stratton out of options and Burdi still carrying Rule 5 status, combined with their elite stuff, they are also both safe bets to crack the Opening Day bullpen. That leaves three spots and creates a heck of a battle in camp.

Rotation prediction: Chris Archer, Joe Musgrove, Trevor Williams, Mitch Keller, Chad Kuhl

Bullpen prediction: Keone Kela, Kyle Crick, Michael Feliz, Edgar Santana, Richard Rodriguez, Chris Stratton, Nick Burdi, Robbie Erlin