Three Bold Predictions For The Pittsburgh Pirates 2020 Season

While some of these Pittsburgh Pirates predictions might seem extreme, there is enough evidence to back them up to support plausibility

We all make predictions that seem out of the blue before the season starts. While it’s easy to follow most of the predictions, I wanted to make my bold predictions for the Pittsburgh Pirates 2020 season. Based on 2019, you probably aren’t expecting some of these, but I hope by the end of this, you’ll understand why these predictions are 100% plausible for the Pirates.

Also, if these predictions come to fruition it will bode well for the long term health of the Pirate organization. Especially the first two predictions. So, hopefully, this is one time I’ll be right when trying to predict what will happen in baseball.

Travis Swaggerty finishes as a top 60 prospect

Last season, Travis Swaggerty fell off the top 100 list. This was because of a rough start to the season. Swaggerty’s first few months in Bradenton saw his OPS dip below .700 (.646), but it seemed the 21-year-old just needed a bit of time to get used to the league. His second half gave renewed hope in the former first round pick, as he hit for a .306/.375/.430 line, with 20 extra base hits. I see him carrying this second half production into next season.

I like to say Swaggerty is a poor-man’s Cristian Pache. Although their hit tool doesn’t make them stand out, their speed and overall fielding skill make them notable. Pache is the Braves best prospect in their organization, ranking as the 13th top prospect in all of baseball. Now yes, Pache is a better fielder and faster than Swaggerty, but that doesn’t mean the Bucs’ prospect isn’t an elite defender in his own right. Fangraphs gives Swaggerty a 55 fielding rating with a future of 60, and an arm grade of 60. Pache is given 70 grades for both fielding and arm ability. They also give both Pache and Swaggerty a 65 run grade.

But it seems FanGraphs feels Swaggerty has a higher ceiling with the bat, as he is given a 40/50 hit grade, and 30/50 power grade, and Pache is given a 35/45 hit grade and 30/45 power grade. It’s understandable when you look at their numbers. Despite Swaggerty’s slow start to 2019, he still finished off the year with a strong 120 wRC+. Pache, who spent most of the time in AA, wasn’t too far ahead at 134 wRC+. Swaggerty has much better plate discipline with a 10.9% walk rate and 22.1% K rate, while Pache walked less and struck out at a similar rate last season (7.9%/22.6%).

If Swaggerty continues to show the Gold Glove level fielding prowess he has his entire career, and hits somewhere in the .280/.360/.440 range during 2020, I could see him easily cracking the top 100 list once again, and even possibly getting up in the 60+ range of top prospects.

Michael Feliz takes over as the closer

It’s pretty much certain that recently named closer Keone Kela will be traded sometime during the 2020 season. So, when he is traded, who takes over as closer? I’d say one of the next in line is Michael Feliz.

Don’t let Feliz’s subpar surface numbers fool you. He showed much improvement in 2019, and, with a new, and likely better, pitching coach helping the entire team he will likely continue to improve.

His 3.99 ERA might not look pretty but it’s bloated by one game, if you even want to call it one game. The Bucs tried the opener strategy in 2019 a couple of times. It had mixed results, but throwing Feliz into the opener role who was just finally finding some footing into a new role wasn’t the greatest idea. He gave up 5 earned runs to the Los Angeles Dodgers and only recorded one out. Without that one game Feliz’s ERA drops to 3.21. Regardless after that one game, Feliz went on a tear. In his next 44.1 innings, the right hander posted a 2.84 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and .698 opponent OPS. Baseball Savant puts his average exit velo in the 83rd percentile with his hard hit rate in the 79th percentile.

While his walk rate in the 4’s isn’t great, you can live with it speaking that he is in the 87th percentile of strikeout rate. Just one thing kept Feliz from being an elite level relief pitcher last season: the home run. 25% of all the hits Feliz gave up last season were home runs. While he gave up 11 long balls, he only gave up seven doubles, and one triple all last season.

But with the baseball likely going to become un-juiced, and new guidance in coaching, things are pointing in the right direction for Michael Feliz. His pitches have had more movement each of the last two seasons, and I honestly think he could take over the 9th inning role by the end of the 2020 season.