Three Bold Predictions For The Pittsburgh Pirates 2020 Season

While some of these Pittsburgh Pirates predictions might seem extreme, there is enough evidence to back them up to support plausibility

We all make predictions that seem out of the blue before the season starts. While it’s easy to follow most of the predictions, I wanted to make my bold predictions for the Pittsburgh Pirates 2020 season. Based on 2019, you probably aren’t expecting some of these, but I hope by the end of this, you’ll understand why these predictions are 100% plausible for the Pirates.

Also, if these predictions come to fruition it will bode well for the long term health of the Pirate organization. Especially the first two predictions. So, hopefully, this is one time I’ll be right when trying to predict what will happen in baseball.

Mitch Keller not only wins National League Rookie of the Year, but receives some Cy Young votes

I’m going to list numbers from Mitch Keller’s, Lance Lynn’s, and Jack Flahety’s 2019 season, and I want you to guess who is who.

Player 1:

FIP: 3.13

SIERA: 3.83

Hard hit rate: 39%

K/9: 10.6

BB/9: 2.55

HR/9: .91

Player 2:

FIP: 3.46

SIERA: 3.68

Hard hit rate: 37.2%

K/9: 10.59

BB/9: 2.52

HR/9: 1.15

Player 3:

FIP: 3.19

SIERA: 3.78

Hard hit rate: 35.9%

K/9: 12.2

BB/9: 3.00

HR/9: 1.13

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, you can’t get more unlucky than Mitch Keller did in 2019. Somehow, Keller had a .475 batting average on balls in play. That was almost double of Flaherty’s BAbip, and over .100 more than Lynn’s BAbip. A .475 BAbip is the last thing from sustainable. Plus, with above average exit velo numbers, and ranking in the 83rd+ percentile in fastball spin, fastball velo, and curve spin, Keller is certainly going to see a good amount of improvement next season.

So much so I think he will win National League Rookie of the Year. Most are pinning the award to players Dodgers’ rookies Gavin Lux, or Dustin May, or Cardinals outfielder Dylan Carlson, and rightfully so. But Keller, despite being a top 40 prospect, is flying under the radar of ROY candidates. If Keller produces anything like his 2019 numbers indicate, Lynn is the floor of his performance while Flaherty is the ceiling of his performance. Both Lynn and Flaherty finished in the top-5 of Cy Young voting last season. Only one pitcher passed Lynn in fWAR in ‘19, that being former Pirate Gerrit Cole (who we all know was so good the past two seasons, he became the highest paid pitcher in MLB history). By the way, Player 1 is Lynn, Player 2 is Flaherty and Player 3 is Keller.

Travis Swaggerty finishes as a top 60 prospect

Last season, Travis Swaggerty fell off the top 100 list. This was because of a rough start to the season. Swaggerty’s first few months in Bradenton saw his OPS dip below .700 (.646), but it seemed the 21-year-old just needed a bit of time to get used to the league. His second half gave renewed hope in the former first round pick, as he hit for a .306/.375/.430 line, with 20 extra base hits. I see him carrying this second half production into next season.

I like to say Swaggerty is a poor-man’s Cristian Pache. Although their hit tool doesn’t make them stand out, their speed and overall fielding skill make them notable. Pache is the Braves best prospect in their organization, ranking as the 13th top prospect in all of baseball. Now yes, Pache is a better fielder and faster than Swaggerty, but that doesn’t mean the Bucs’ prospect isn’t an elite defender in his own right. Fangraphs gives Swaggerty a 55 fielding rating with a future of 60, and an arm grade of 60. Pache is given 70 grades for both fielding and arm ability. They also give both Pache and Swaggerty a 65 run grade.

But it seems FanGraphs feels Swaggerty has a higher ceiling with the bat, as he is given a 40/50 hit grade, and 30/50 power grade, and Pache is given a 35/45 hit grade and 30/45 power grade. It’s understandable when you look at their numbers. Despite Swaggerty’s slow start to 2019, he still finished off the year with a strong 120 wRC+. Pache, who spent most of the time in AA, wasn’t too far ahead at 134 wRC+. Swaggerty has much better plate discipline with a 10.9% walk rate and 22.1% K rate, while Pache walked less and struck out at a similar rate last season (7.9%/22.6%).

If Swaggerty continues to show the Gold Glove level fielding prowess he has his entire career, and hits somewhere in the .280/.360/.440 range during 2020, I could see him easily cracking the top 100 list once again, and even possibly getting up in the 60+ range of top prospects.