Do Not Forget About JT Brubaker This Spring

With Spring Training hands underway, this one pitcher could be a dark horse for the fifth and final rotation spot.

The fifth spot of the Pittsburgh Pirates rotation is still up for grabs. Chad Kuhl and Steven Brault seem to be the front-runners of the race for the spot, but that doesn’t mean they’ll be the ones to grab the spot. Veteran lefty Derek Holland will make Kuhl and Brault work for the spot. One of the dark horses for the spot is right-handed prospect JT Brubaker.

Had it not been for an injury that kept Brubaker to just 27.2 innings in the minors in 2019, the prospect would have already made his debut. Brubaker had a great season in Triple-A in 2018. In 154 innings (119 innings from Triple-A, 35 from Double-A), he had a 3.27 ERA, 3.20 FIP, and 1.26 WHIP. Brubaker was great at keeping balls in the park, indicated by his strong 50% groundball rate in Indianapolis and his 0.5 HR/9 rate throughout all of 2018. While he doesn’t strikeout too many batters, as his career K/9 is just 7.6, he is great at preventing free passes with his 2.7 BB/9.

Brubaker got off to a great start in Triple-A. In 21 innings, he gave up just six earned runs, two home runs, four walks, and struck out 20. But a forearm strain kept Brubaker from coming back to Indianapolis. Currently, the 26-year-old is ranked as the team’s 28th best prospect according MLB.com, and entered 2019 as the Bucs’ 22nd best prospect according to FanGraphs.

Brubaker has four pitches in his arsenal. His most effective are his fastball, slider and curveball. FanGraphs puts his fastball at a 60 grade, as does MLB.com. The pitch sits in the mid-90’s most of the time, but he has been able to reach back for more gas.

Brubaker’s slider is graded out as slightly above average with a 50 FanGraphs grade, and 55 MLB.com grade. This pitch usually sits in the high-80’s. Most of the soft contact he gets is on this pitch. His curve is also similar to his slider as it’s given a 50 grade by mlb.com and 55 grade by FanGraphs. Brubaker’s worst pitch is his change-up. While it is a pitch he can control, it isn’t one with enough movement right now to be a reliable one.

Even if Brubaker doesn’t get the fifth spot in the rotation, some project him to be more effective as a relief pitcher. He hasn’t ever really served primarily as a relief pitcher except for the 2017 Arizona Fall League. Although it was a 13.2 inning sample size, Brubaker struck out 16 batters, walked just two, and gave up one home run. In total, he only gave up four earned runs. Regardless, JT Brubaker will play an impactful role in 2020. Even if he does not claim the fifth spot in the rotation, he still should be an effective swing man, or relief pitcher out of the bullpen. Pirate fans should see Brubaker in Pittsburgh at some point in 2020.