Who Will be the Pittsburgh Pirates Key Players in 2020?

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PITTSBURGH, PA – SEPTEMBER 18: Bryan Reynolds #10 of the Pittsburgh Pirates in action during the game against the Seattle Mariners at PNC Park on September 18, 2019 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images) /

After reviewing the stats, peripherals, and previous performances of these key players, these are my projections for some of the Pittsburgh Pirates’ players.

Many sites, especially this time of year, project players throughout the Majors. Some are often times accurate, while others could do a better job.

Today, I wanted to go through some of the key players will be for the Pittsburgh Pirates this upcoming season and try to project their 2020 seasons. For this, we will only taking position players who will likely receive at least 500 plate appearances, starters who will throw 120 innings, and relief pitchers who will throw 50 innings at the minimum.

Obviously, there can be players that emerge out of nowhere. Every season, that happens around baseball for all 30 clubs. Just look at Bryan Reynolds and Kevin Newman in 2019 as examples for the Pirates.

However, projecting breakout players and key players are two different things. So for today, we will stick to the key players for 2020 and stay away from breakout players.

PITTSBURGH, PA – MAY 23: Gregory Polanco #25 of the Pittsburgh Pirates reacts after hitting a two run home run in the first inning against the Colorado Rockies at PNC Park on May 23, 2019 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images) /

Position players

First baseman Josh Bell

Projection: .270/.370/.500, 30 home runs, 130 wRC+

Josh Bell had a great 2019 breakout season. He batted for a 277/.367/.569 line, including 37 home runs. Bell posted an impressive 135 wRC+. That is comparable to Mookie Betts (135), and J.D. Martinez (136) last season. Only three other first basemen posted a better wRC+ than Bell: National League Rookie of the Year Pete Alonso, Cubs’ perennial All-Star Anthony Rizzo, and top-10 MVP finisher the past two seasons Freddie Freeman. Pretty good company. Josh has extremely good plate discipline as well. His 12.1% walk percentage ranked top 30 in the league, while he struck out just 19.2% of the time.

Bell’s projection is based on his monthly splits. Bell started the season off blazing hot with a .343/.405/.704, faltered in June and July, but came back to hit for a strong .258/.377/.516 line from August onward. Bell is going to fall into a median of his two most productive parts of 2019, but with more consistency throughout the season. A consistent .870+ OPS throughout the season is All-Star level. Hopefully, his defense can improve, as he was one of the worst defensive first baseman last season. So, you could say the only direction is up for his fielding.

Outfielder Bryan Reynolds

Projection: .290/.360/.450, 15 home runs, 125 wRC+

Bryan Reynolds was one of the top rookies in all of baseball in 2019. He batted .314/.377/.503 with 16 long balls and a Pirate rookie record 37 doubles. In total, he had 57 extra base hits. His rookie season was one of the best in Pirate history. His 131 wRC+ ranked 4th among rookies with at least 300 plate appearances. Some of the names that passed him included Fernando Tatis Jr., and Rookie of the Year winners Yordan Alvarez and the aforementioned Alonso. Among rookie seasons in Pirates’ history, his 3.2 fWAR ranked 22nd, and his wRC+ ranked 16th (min. 300 plate appearances).

Reynolds’ .387 batting average on balls in play was the third highest in the MLB, which can point toward regression. But don’t expect too much regression. He has always had a .360+ BAbip throughout all the minors, yet his lowest wRC+ at one level was 122 in 2018. Reynolds hits to all fields, although he pulls the ball most often, he only pulled the ball 38.8%. League average was 41%. But I wouldn’t expect his home runs to go above 15, or 16. The ball becoming un-juiced is going to affect players throughout the league, but Reynolds should still be a good bet for 35 doubles.

Infielder Kevin Newman

Projection: .290/.330/.420, 10 home runs, 105 wRC+

Newman was another breakout rookie the Pirates got to watch in 2019. But I wouldn’t expect him to produce the same in 2020 as to ‘19. Last year, Newman batted .308/.353/.446., which on paper is a solid line. Good for an .800 OPS and 111 OPS+/110 wRC+. He showed good prowess on the base paths, swiping 16 bags while driving 12 balls out of the park.

Newman doesn’t strikeout often. His 11.7% strikeout rate sits well below the league average of 23%, and he had the 5th lowest K% in the Majors last season. However, Newman doesn’t walk much either. He carried just a 5% walk rate in 2019. Plus, he doesn’t make much loud contact either. Both his exit velocity and hard hit rate rank in the bottom 5th percentile of baseball. Newman does have the speed to make long singles into doubles, but he needs to start driving the gap more. However, until then, I don’t see him being much better than 5-8% above league average.

If he transitions to the easier infield position of second base after mainly playing shortstop last season, it’s 100% plausible his offense improves as he already graded as an above average fielder at second base (1.9 UZR, +2 DRS), and could put more focus into improving his bat. If the team is committed to giving Cole Tucker a look at shortstop or Adam Frazier is eventually traded, this move could come for Newman.

Outfielder Gregory Polanco

Projection: .260/.350/.500, 30 home runs, 115 wRC+

Gregory Polanco missed most of the 2019 season recovering from surgery, but his 2018 gave many fans hope for a breakout. From June to the end of 2018, Polanco batted for a strong .281/.354/.547 line and blasted 15 home runs. Polanco has always shown the ability to be a great ballplayer. After all, his 6’5, 235 pound frame should generate a good amount of power. But so far, it just hasn’t.

This year could be the season Polanco finally gets to see that boost in power. His 2018 output shows he can do it, all he needs to do is start doing it more consistently, which has always been one of Polanco’s biggest downfalls throughout his career. You should also see him rack up a good amount of doubles as well. His 162 game average is 34, and I don’t see why he couldn’t reach that if he stays healthy.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – JULY 28: Chris Archer #24 of the Pittsburgh Pirates in action against the New York Mets at Citi Field on July 28, 2019 in New York City. The Mets defeated the Pirates 8-7. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) /

Pitchers

Starting pitcher Chris Archer

Projection: 4.10 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 3.5 K/BB ratio, 1.30 WHIP 180 IP

There is no way sugar coat Chris Archer’s 2019 season. He was awful. Not only did he miss a good chunk of time because of injury, but he was ineffective when he wasn’t hurt. In the 119.2 innings Archer pitched he gave up 69 earned runs and 25 home runs resulting in the highest HR/9 of his career (1.9), and he walked batters at a career high 4.1 per 9 rate.

There’s no way that Archer doesn’t see some sort of bounce back. While he hasn’t been an ace caliber starter in years, I don’t see why he couldn’t return to a solid back-end-rotation kind of arm. From 2016 to 2018, Archer had a 4.12 ERA, 3.64 FIP, and 1.28 WHIP with a 3.66 K/BB ratio. That made him an overall average starting pitcher. If Archer is healthy for a full season, you can get at least 180 innings out of him. He posted three straight 200+ inning seasons from 2015 to 2017.

Starting pitcher Mitch Keller

Projection: 3.50 ERA, 3.30 FIP, 4.00 K/BB ratio, 1.20 WHIP, 150 innings pitched

Many of Mitch Keller’s 2019 stats were reflective of some really good pitchers in baseball in the past few seasons. Keller’s FIP was similar to that of Lance Lynn and Zack Greinke. His SIERA was comparable to Clayton Kershaw and Jack Flaherty. His K/BB ratio was up there with Lucas Giolitio and Noah Syndergaard.

I think Keller will have a similar season to that of 2017 Jacob deGrom. In 2017, the now two-time Cy Young winner pitched to the tune of a 3.53 ERA, 3.50 FIP, and 1.19 WHIP with a 4.05 K/BB ratio in 201.1 innings pitched. I don’t see Keller keeping up a 12.2 K/9 rate, but expect something above 10 per 9. Keller’s control should be fine, as he walked 3.0 batters per 9 last year. He should also see a decrease in home runs, as the un-juiced ball will definitely help pitchers across the league. Basically, expect him to produce around or better than he did in Triple-A in 2019 before receiving his MLB call-up.

Relief pitcher Kyle Crick

Projection: 2.90 ERA, 3.20 FIP, 2.3 K/BB ratio, 1.20 WHIP, 55 innings pitched

Kyle Crick entered 2019 as someone who could become a top-tier late inning pitcher in all of MLB. After all, he was coming off a borderline dominant 2018 season. In 60.1 innings Crick put up a 2.39 ERA, 3.14 FIP, and 1.13 WHIP. He struck out a healthy amount of batters (65 K’s), and kept a decent BB/9 (3.4). He also induced way more soft contact than hard hit contact (25% to 22.5%).

But 2019 didn’t go so well. At least when the weather started to heat up. Through the first 30 innings of 2019, he looked like the relief ace we were expecting, having a 2.7 ERA, 36 K’s, and giving up just three home runs. Sure, he had given up a good amount of walks, having a 7.2 BB/9, but he kept opposing batters to a .190 batting average and a .314 slugging percentage. Basically, most of the base runners he was giving up were on his own account.

However, from July 7th onward, the season became a disaster. He gave up 18 earned runs in his final 19 innings of the season. After giving up just three home runs, he gave up seven more, and opponents slugged the ball off of him for a .590 slugging. Odds are, the clubhouse issues didn’t help Crick either.

Crick still sits in the 94th percentile of hard hit rate and exit velocity, while still being able to reach back for some heat (80th percentile in fastball velocity). With new guidance from new pitching coach Oscar Marin, the former Giant prospect should rebound. Expect him to be in consideration for comeback player of the year next season, and maybe even take over the closer role.

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