Who Will be the Pittsburgh Pirates Key Players in 2020?

Pitchers

Starting pitcher Chris Archer

Projection: 4.10 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 3.5 K/BB ratio, 1.30 WHIP 180 IP

There is no way sugar coat Chris Archer’s 2019 season. He was awful. Not only did he miss a good chunk of time because of injury, but he was ineffective when he wasn’t hurt. In the 119.2 innings Archer pitched he gave up 69 earned runs and 25 home runs resulting in the highest HR/9 of his career (1.9), and he walked batters at a career high 4.1 per 9 rate.

There’s no way that Archer doesn’t see some sort of bounce back. While he hasn’t been an ace caliber starter in years, I don’t see why he couldn’t return to a solid back-end-rotation kind of arm. From 2016 to 2018, Archer had a 4.12 ERA, 3.64 FIP, and 1.28 WHIP with a 3.66 K/BB ratio. That made him an overall average starting pitcher. If Archer is healthy for a full season, you can get at least 180 innings out of him. He posted three straight 200+ inning seasons from 2015 to 2017.

Starting pitcher Mitch Keller

Projection: 3.50 ERA, 3.30 FIP, 4.00 K/BB ratio, 1.20 WHIP, 150 innings pitched

Many of Mitch Keller’s 2019 stats were reflective of some really good pitchers in baseball in the past few seasons. Keller’s FIP was similar to that of Lance Lynn and Zack Greinke. His SIERA was comparable to Clayton Kershaw and Jack Flaherty. His K/BB ratio was up there with Lucas Giolitio and Noah Syndergaard.

I think Keller will have a similar season to that of 2017 Jacob deGrom. In 2017, the now two-time Cy Young winner pitched to the tune of a 3.53 ERA, 3.50 FIP, and 1.19 WHIP with a 4.05 K/BB ratio in 201.1 innings pitched. I don’t see Keller keeping up a 12.2 K/9 rate, but expect something above 10 per 9. Keller’s control should be fine, as he walked 3.0 batters per 9 last year. He should also see a decrease in home runs, as the un-juiced ball will definitely help pitchers across the league. Basically, expect him to produce around or better than he did in Triple-A in 2019 before receiving his MLB call-up.

Relief pitcher Kyle Crick

Projection: 2.90 ERA, 3.20 FIP, 2.3 K/BB ratio, 1.20 WHIP, 55 innings pitched

Kyle Crick entered 2019 as someone who could become a top-tier late inning pitcher in all of MLB. After all, he was coming off a borderline dominant 2018 season. In 60.1 innings Crick put up a 2.39 ERA, 3.14 FIP, and 1.13 WHIP. He struck out a healthy amount of batters (65 K’s), and kept a decent BB/9 (3.4). He also induced way more soft contact than hard hit contact (25% to 22.5%).

But 2019 didn’t go so well. At least when the weather started to heat up. Through the first 30 innings of 2019, he looked like the relief ace we were expecting, having a 2.7 ERA, 36 K’s, and giving up just three home runs. Sure, he had given up a good amount of walks, having a 7.2 BB/9, but he kept opposing batters to a .190 batting average and a .314 slugging percentage. Basically, most of the base runners he was giving up were on his own account.

However, from July 7th onward, the season became a disaster. He gave up 18 earned runs in his final 19 innings of the season. After giving up just three home runs, he gave up seven more, and opponents slugged the ball off of him for a .590 slugging. Odds are, the clubhouse issues didn’t help Crick either.

Crick still sits in the 94th percentile of hard hit rate and exit velocity, while still being able to reach back for some heat (80th percentile in fastball velocity). With new guidance from new pitching coach Oscar Marin, the former Giant prospect should rebound. Expect him to be in consideration for comeback player of the year next season, and maybe even take over the closer role.