Pittsburgh Pirates Boast Strong Farm System According to FanGraphs

FanGraphs, a very well respected baseball analytics website, released its annual report on the top 100 prospects in Major League Baseball. The Pittsburgh Pirates have six players that made FanGraphs’ top 100 list, which means they have a surprisingly strong farm system entering the 2020 season.

One of the most important tasks for new Pittsburgh Pirates general manager Ben Cherington when he took over the GM position  was to rebuild the team’s farm system. This rebuild started when he traded Starling Marte to the Arizona Diamondbacks for a pair of prospects that both now reside among the team’s top 10 prospects.

However, believe it or not, Cherington will have a good foundation to start with as the Pirates have a large amount of high end talent. While the Pirate farm system hit some rough patches in the latter years of the Neal Huntington Era, the long time GM did not leave the cupboard bare, either. According to FanGraphs 2020 BOARD, which ranks prospects based on advanced scouting and metrics, the Pirates have six prospects in the top 100 prospects in baseball. This article will systematically work thorough those six players, discussing their strengths, weaknesses, and how they can help the Pirates in the future.

#32 – Shortstop Oneil Cruz

Oneil Cruz is the 32nd ranked prospect on FanGraphs the BOARD and is a top five shortstop prospect in baseball. Cruz was traded to the Pirates in the Tony Watson deal and was the perfect example of a high-risk, high-ceiling prospect. At 6’7″, the young, intentionally signed shortstop is starting to put things together and is turning into one of the most exciting prospects in all of baseball.

Last season, Cruz slashed .298/.356/.475 in High-A and Double-A with 11 stolen bases, showing great contact hitting and speed. But, more importantly, Cruz started to fill in his 6’7” frame, hitting eight home runs with a .475 slugging percentage. You can tell that this was a natural adjustment compared to an intentional attempt to find more power as Cruz also decreased his strike out rate from the previous year. With almost every offensive metric trending upwards, Cruz has clearly not reached his ceiling yet and could develop into a pure five-tool player.

Defensively, Cruz is still at shortstop, but could be moved to virtually any position around the field. According to FanGraphs and other scouts, Cruz’s arm strength is currently keeping him at shortstop, but below average lateral agility could force him to an outfield position or even first base. With just a half season under his belt at Double-A Altoona, a good year for Cruz would see him promoted to Triple-A halfway through the 2020 season, positioning himself to be on the Big League roster in 2021. In addition, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Cruz played in the outfield during the 2020 season, as there is a current backlog of Pirates in the middle infield. Cruz’s bat is too good to keep down in the minors for any longer then it needs to be. That said, by the time he becomes a MLB regular, the National League will likely have the designated hitter.

#34 – Pitcher Mitch Keller 

Mitch Keller is technically still a prospect, even though he pitched 48 innings in the Majors last season for the Pirates. Ranked as the 34th prospect on the BOARD’s top 100, Keller is by far the Pirates’ best pitching prospect. Keller had one of the most unfortunate stretch of 48 innings I have ever seen for a pitcher, posting a 7.13 ERA and a 3.19 FIP, he was snake bitten by the third highest batting average on balls in play in MLB history of .475. With a minor league career 3.12 ERA, Keller projects to be much closer to his 2019 FIP than his 2019 ERA.

A four pitch power pitcher, Keller looks like he could occupy a spot in the top of the Pirates’ rotation for many years to come. Keller possesses a mid-90s fastball, an average changeup, and an above average slider and curveball. His effective use of three off-speed pitches has led to a career 9.4 strikeouts per 9 innings, which should hold up nicely in the majors. The only complaint against Keller’s stuff is the lack of movement on his fastball. From my (very untrained) eye-test alone, Keller’s fastball isn’t good enough to miss bats at the Big League level. While Keller has a lot of power behind his fastball, its lack of movement makes it necessary for Keller to maintain his stellar pitch-location command as he continues his career.

Keller will start the 2020 season in the rotation for the Pirates, and hopefully will continue to do so in future seasons. The best case scenario for Keller is that he locks down one of the top two rotation spots as the Pirates rebuild, which he certainly has the potential to do. If he is able to be an anchor for the rotation, the Pirates will find themselves in contention sooner rather than later since the top of the rotation continues to be a weak spot for the organization.

#61 – Outfielder Travis Swaggerty

Travis Swaggerty is the 61st player on the BOARD’s top 100 and is just outside the top 10 prospects in the MLB for the center field position. Swaggerty was drafted with the 10th overall pick in the 2018 draft and certainly has high expectations in Pirates system. So far though, Swaggerty hasn’t quite lived up to those expectations.

Swaggerty’s rookie season was rough, as he slashed .239/.322/.383. This was a stark difference from the .500+ slugging numbers Swaggerty posted throughout his collegiate career. I’m not suggesting that Swaggerty’s .963 OPS was sustainable when he moved to Low-A, but the drop off was harsh.

Swaggerty spent 2019 with High-A Bradenton and from the outside, his numbers look equally unpromising. Over 524 plate appearances, Swaggerty’s line was .265/.347/.381. But, a closer look at 2019 reveals that Swaggerty posted two incredible months of play in July (.822 OPS) and August (.906 OPS). These two months clearly impressed the scouts for the BOARD and that is the only reason why Swaggerty is on the top 100 list.

Swaggerty is regarded as a plus defender and has the speed needed to be a threat when on base. If he can find offensive consistency in his 2020 season that will most likely start at Double-A Altoona,  Swaggerty will be well on his way to fulfilling the Pirates’ draft expectations. If all goes well, we will see Swaggerty in center field by mid-2021.

#78 – Pitcher Tahnaj Thomas

Signed from the Bahamas and acquired from the Cleveland Indians via trade, Tahnaj Thomas is the 78th best prospect on FanGraphs BOARD. Thomas is an extremely interesting prospect that is most similar to the previously discussed Oneil Cruz (in regards to prospect ceiling). Thomas has a fastball that touches 100 MPH on the radar and is already developing multiple off-speed pitches including a curveball and a changeup. For a 20 year old player who has only played rookie ball – this is no small feat.

In 2019, Thomas started 12 games and posted a 3.17 ERA with decent command and an awesome 11.0 strikeouts per nine innings. These are truly impressive numbers for a young guy who is a starting pitcher, is learning on the go, and can throw 100+. Normally, those three things combine to equal a lot of walks and no control.

FanGraphs is most excited about Thomas’ ceiling as a prospect. This is mostly due to his obvious athleticism and large build at 6’4″ that may allow for Thomas to continue to improve his command and remain a starter. It will be extremely interesting to see how Thomas does this season, as it is completely imaginable to see him drop off of this list or sky-rocket up this list with relative ease.

#98 – Shortstop Liover Peguero 

Liover Peguero is the 98th best prospect on the BOARD and was acquired in the recent Starling Marte trade. First off, I have to own up to my previous article on the Starling Marte trade. Ben Cherington did get a top 100 (or at least close to it) prospect in the trade, which I thought he had failed to do.

Peguero, a young 19 year old, was signed out of the Dominican Republic by the Diamondbacks. Drawing early comparisons to Jean Segura, Peguero absolutely killed it during his 2019 season. Between rookie ball and Low-A play, Peguero slashed .326/.382/.485 over a decent sample size of 249 plate appearances. Peguero also showed good speed with 11 stolen bases and is project to be a plus defender at the shortstop position.

Scouts are most excited about Peguero’s bat speed, as he apparently gets the barrel through the strike zone with extreme quickness – in an Andrew McCutchen like manner. This high bat speed will actually make Peguero a decent power hitter despite his smaller frame. While the Pirates don’t have a place for Peguero on the roster now, he still has a long way to go and will most likely start the year at either Low-A Greensboro or High-A Bradenton.

Reading about these six prospects should certainly give Pirates’ fans hope for the future of the organization. While a few of these prospects are years away from the Majors, prospects like Keller and Hayes will help the team this season. For me, something that stands out as unique is the potential of some of the Pirates’ better prospects. Tahnaj Thomas, Travis Swaggerty, and especially Oneil Cruz could all turn into top 25 prospects with strong seasons. Hopefully, Cherington will take this strong foundation of prospects and build a winner over time.