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Pittsburgh Pirates: Three Breakout Candidates for 2020
If/when the 2020 Major League Baseball season begins, who are three candidates to have a breakout season for the Pittsburgh Pirates?
A week ago yesterday, Major League Baseball suspended Spring Training games and announced the regular season would not start on time due to the spread of COVID-19. Since then, MLB has gone on to announce that the start of the regular season will be later than the original two week delayed date. Additionally, multiple teams, including the Pittsburgh Pirates, have attempted to remain in their spring homes to keep working out. Although, as we learned on Thursday, that is not going as originally planned either.
While the belief is now that any sort of baseball season will not start until at least June, there are still topics that can be discussed by baseball fans. For fans of the Pittsburgh Pirates, one topic that can be discussed is who are breakout candidates for a potential 2020 season?
Every MLB season there are breakout players across the sport. Each team has multiple breakout players each season. For the 2019 Pirates, there were outfielder Bryan Reynolds and infielder Kevin Newman. So, if/when the 2020 MLB season begins, who are three potential breakout candidates for the Pirates?
Starting Pitcher Mitch Keller
Last season, highly touted pitching prospect Mitch Keller made his MLB debut for the Pirates. Unfortunately for Keller and the Pirates, things did not go as planned.
In 11 starts Keller posted a 7.13 ERA in 48 innings of work. However, you have to dive much deeper than that to truly examine his season. Keller was burnt by a .475 batting average on balls in play. This was the third highest single season BAbip posted by a pitcher in MLB history. A BAbip that high is a sign of poor defense and/or luck for the pitcher.
Despite posting an ERA over 7, Keller still had a 1.3 fWAR. This was largely due to his 3.19 FIP, 7.0% walk rate, 28.6% strikeout rate, and 1.13 HR/9. All of these were better than league average.
Keller’s top of the rotation quality stuff also flashed in 2019. His fastball velocity was in the 83rd percentile in all of baseball, his curveball spin rate was in the 85th percentile, and his fastball spin rate was in the 91st percentile.
If Keller can repeat the stuff he flashed in 2019, then he will be in line for a breakout 2020 campaign. While he may not be the top of the rotation pitcher the Pirate envision him being one day, he should take steps toward becoming that. This is why Keller was highlighted as a potential extension candidate for the Pirates.
Shortstop Cole Tucker
Like Keller, Cole Tucker made his MLB debut for the Pirates in 2019. After a hot start, Tucker started to struggle which led to him being optioned back to Triple-A after losing the starting shortstop job to Newman. Tucker then finished the season with a strong September.
All in all, Tucker accumulated 159 plate appearances for the Pirates in 2019. He slashed .211/.266/.361 with a .150 ISO and a wRC+ of 61. Mix in some strong defense, and despite his offensive woes Tucker posted a 0.0 fWAR.
Not long after arriving in Pittsburgh, it became clear that new general manager Ben Cherington and his staff thought highly of Tucker. The team spent much of the off-season attempting to trade second baseman Adam Frazier, with the main reasoning behind it being to create a spot in the starting lineup for Tucker. Some in Cherington’s front office even view Tucker as a future star.
Despite his struggles, there was reason to believe Tucker can breakout offensively in 2020. His .150 ISO was strong and his 36.5% hard hit rate was more than 2% above league average. His 10.2% extra base hit rate was also above league average.
Tucker’s .276 BAbip was below league average (.300). That combined with Tucker’s above average hard hit rate indicates that he was burnt by some tough luck in 2019.
In the off-season Tucker worked on his launch angle and hitting more line drives. In Grapefruit League play, this appeared to be making a difference. In 31 plate appearances he was slashing .296/.387/.667 with three home runs and a double.
If Tucker can become even league average offensively, and there is plenty of evidence that he could be even better than that, then he can be one of the better shortstops in the National League. Tucker is already one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball, if he can improve his offense he will be a big time breakout candidate in 2020.
Reliever Nick Burdi
At the MLB Winter Meetings in December of 2018, the Philadelphia Phillies selected reliever Nick Burdi from the Minnesota Twins. The Phillies then traded him to the Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for international free agency money.
After turning heads in Spring Training 2019, Burdi appeared to be well on his way to breaking out for the Pirates in 2019. Well, injuries had other ideas. A nerve issue that required surgery limited Burdi to just 8.2 innings in 2019. In these 8.2 innings, however, he did strikeout 17 batters.
Prior to the suspension of play, Burdi looked healthy as can be this spring. He had allowed a run on a solo home run, a walk, and eight strikeouts in 4.2 innings of work. His fastball topped 100 MPH on multiple occasion and his slider looked as wicked as ever.
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While some of this is in flux depending on if/when the 2020 season starts, current closer Keone Kela is slated to hit free agency following the season. Due to this, odds are, the Pirates will look to trade him whenever the trade deadline rolls around. If Burdi is healthy and pitching to his potential, it would not be a surprise to see him be the front runner to replace Kela as the team’s closer.