Evaluating Five Pittsburgh Pirates Pitchers Using Deserved Run Average

These five Pittsburgh Pirates pitchers have the potential to have good 2020 seasons, and improve from their 2019 seasons, according to the stat deserved run average

Deserved run average, or DRA for short, is a metric formulated by Baseball Prospectus to evaluate a pitcher’s ability. It is an alternative to earned run average, or ERA. ERA has many flaws that can make it extremely unreliable. It does not take into account things such as the defense behind the pitcher, who is catching the pitcher, the pitcher’s ability to strikeout batters, prevent walks, and home runs, the park factors the pitcher is tossing in, the quality of contact they give up, and the batter or line-up they are facing. DRA takes into account these factors, plus many more such as base running activity, run differential, wild pitches or passed balls, the runners on base, and the role the pitcher is in.

It, like skill-interactive earned run average, or SIERA, is one of the very best ways to determine the underlying skill of the pitcher. It’s job is to isolate how good the pitcher is at their job of getting outs, and preventing runs. Many things can be working against the pitcher that they have no control over, which isn’t fair to count that against the pitcher. If the pitcher’s ERA is much better than their DRA, they’re probably getting fairly lucky. If they’re DRA is much lower than their bottom line ERA, then you’re probably looking at a pitcher who’s getting a few tough breaks or playing in front of a poor defense. Today, we will evaluate some of the Pittsburgh Pirates’ pitchers based on deserved run average (DRA).

Starting Pitcher Trevor Williams

In 2018, Trevor Williams was one of the Pittsburgh Pirates best starting pitchers. He finished the campaign with a 3.11 ERA, 3.86 FIP, and 1.18 WHIP in 170.2 innings. Although he wasn’t striking out too many batters, finishing with a 6.6 K/9 and 18% strikeout rate, he was decent at limiting walks. He let up a 2.9 BB/9 and 8.8% walk rate. Plus, he kept the ball in the ballpark. Williams gave up just 15 long balls, resulting in a 0.8 HR/9

Now, regression should have been expected. Williams had posted a 4.68 SIERA, and 4.28 DRA. Plus, his batting average on balls in play had dropped 30 points from 2017 to 2018. But Williams fell off a cliff in 2019.

Through an injury limited 145.2 innings, Williams posted a 5.38 ERA, 5.12 FIP, and 1.41 WHIP. Home runs were Williams’ biggest issue. He surrendered 27, resulting in a 1.70 HR/9 rate. He did improve his walk (2.7 BB/9, 6.9% walk rate) and strikeout (7.0 K/9, 17.8% strikeout rate) from 2018, so at least there was that.

Going forward, I don’t think you’re going to see too many more seasons where his ERA is in the low-3’s. Williams just isn’t that pitcher, and most of the ERA estimators point toward that. However, I think you’ll still see something more akin to his 2017 ERA of 4.07 or his 2018 FIP of 3.86. His DRA didn’t drop by that much from 2017 (4.49) to 2018 (4.28) despite the major drop in ERA. Williams should become less prone to the home run once again, which definitely will help.

Starting Pitcher Joe Musgrove

Joe Musgrove out-pitches what every bottom line number says. Last year, Musgrove pitched in 170.1 innings to the tune of a 4.44 ERA, 3.82 FIP, and 1.22 WHIP. He only gave up 21 home runs, and was very good at limiting walks. He carried a walk percentage of just 5.4%, and had a K/BB ratio of 4.03.

2018 Musgrove was very similar to 2019 Musgrove. During ‘18, the right hander had a 4.06 ERA, but 3.58 FIP and 1.18 WHIP through 115.1 innings of work. While he did have a lower strikeout rate in 2018 (20.6% to 21.9%), he also walked fewer batters, this time at a 4.7% rate. Plus he only had a 0.9 HR/9 rate.

Deserved run average loves Musgrove. In 2018, he was given a 3.43 for his efforts. Then in 2019, DRA placed him at 3.59. It is understandable why Musgrove’s ERA far under performs his DRA. Musgrove is a control/ground ball pitcher. In the past two seasons owning a 44.9% ground ball rate. That’s good for 37th among the 90 pitchers with at least 250 innings pitched the past two years. Musgrove has easily been hurt by the Pirates bad defense. In 2020, I’d expect Joe Musgrove’s ERA to go down a fair amount compared to 2019. The Pirates have made very good strides to improve their defense, and look to continue to improve it throughout the 2020 season, whenever that starts.

Starting Pitcher Chris Archer

Chris Archer was awful in 2019, but the metrics point to a better future for the former All-Star. He posted a 5.19 ERA, 5.09 FIP, and 1.41 WHIP in 119.2 innings of work. He did maintain a strong strikeout rate of 10.8 per 9, and 27.2% strikeout rate, but other than that, Archer struggled mightily. He walked 4.1 batters per 9 innings, and gave up 25 home runs. 2019 was, by far, the worst season of his career.

His ground ball percentage also took a sharp downturn going from the mid-40’s in seasons past to just 36.3%. Archer’s hard hit rate rose to a career high 40.1%, and so did his line drive percentage (24.2%). However, in years past, ERA estimators have been fairly kind to the right hander. Archer’s highest SIERA before 2019 was 3.88 in 2013, and his highest FIP was 4.07, which also came in 2013. However, 2019 was the first time he posted a FIP over 4 since that year.

DRA has also been fairly nice to Archer, even since his arrival in Pittsburgh. Last season, DRA put him at 4.42 which might not seem too good, but it was about 10% better than the league average. Archer should bounce back in 2020 to some degree. I’m not saying we’ll see the 2015 version of Chris Archer, who finished 5th in Cy Young voting, but I’d expect something closer to his 2016-2017 numbers. As his DRA says, that’s fairly plausible.

Relief Pitcher Richard Rodriguez

Richard Rodriguez had an outstanding 2018, and he didn’t need his defense’s help to help him throughout the season. In 69.1 innings, Rodriguez posted a 2.41 ERA, 2.60 FIP, and a 1.07 WHIP. He gave up just five home runs and issued just 19 walks. He also struck out an astounding number of batters. Rodriguez struck out 31.5% of all the batters he faced, while walking only 8.1% of them.

ERA estimators said that Rodriguez wasn’t using luck to get outs, nor was he struggling because of factors beyond his control. His SIERA was 2.73, while his DRA was 2.82. Overall, those are very similar to his ERA.

But in 2019, Rodriguez took a huge step back. In 65.1 innings, the right hander only struck out 63 of the 285 batters he faced. His walk rate went up as well, but the home runs are what killed him. He gave up nearly triple the amount of home runs from 2018 to 2019, surrendering 14 long balls. His DRA also shot up to over 4 at 4.70. Clearly, he was really relying on his defense this time around.

Rodriguez’s 2019 just should not have been a failure. His BAbip dropped to .271, while his ground ball percentage actually went up to 41.8%. Rodriguez was effective in 2018 because he wasn’t relying on his defense like he was in 2019. Hopefully, we can see the return of his effectiveness going forward.