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Evaluating 4 Pittsburgh Pirates Batters And Predicting Their Future Performance Through DRC+
By Noah Wright
Bryan Reynolds
Bryan Reynolds was one of the top rookies in baseball last season. In 546 plate appearances, the breakout rookie hit .314/.377/.503 with 37 doubles and 16 home runs. He finished the year at a 131 wRC+ mark. Among all rookies with at least 300 plate appearances, his wRC+, fWAR (3.2), and .880 OPS all ranked 5th in the MLB.
Now Reynolds 110 DRC+ is a large drop off from his wRC+, however, you can see why. Reynolds had a .387 batting average on balls in play last year. That’s a major sign of regression. His overall batted ball profile is good, but not great. Although he was still effective in PNC Park, his OPS increases from .818 at home to .938 on the road.
However, a 110 DRC+ is still decent. Ryan Braun, who batted .285/.343/.505 with 22 home runs had a 111 DRC+. Whit Merrifield, who tied with Reynolds in DRC+, was also an extremely productive batter. Because he’ll see a downturn in production doesn’t mean he won’t all of a sudden become ineffective. After all, Reynolds’ lowest single-season BABIP is .362, so I don’t think you should worry about regression from Reynolds.