Five Best Trade Partners for the Pittsburgh Pirates and Chris Archer

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DENVER, CO – SEPTEMBER 1: Chris Archer #24 of the Pittsburgh Pirates watches the game from the bench during a game against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on September 1, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images) /

One of the trade pieces the Pittsburgh Pirates currently has is starting pitcher Chris Archer. If he gets off to a hot start to the 2020 season, these teams could be checking in the former All-Star.

Pittsburgh Pirates right-handed starting pitcher Chris Archer is considered a bounce back candidate by many, and for a good reason. Although he has not been an ace level performer for a few years, 2019 was uncharacteristically poor for the former multiple time American League All-Star. In 119.2 innings, Archer had put up the worst ERA (5.19), FIP (5.02), DRA (4.42), SIERA (4.38) and WHIP (1.41) of his career. He also gave up 25 home runs, and walked 4.1 batters per 9 innings.

However, he was a fairly solid pitcher between 2016 and 2018. In these three seasons, Archer pitched to the tune of a 4.12 ERA, 3.64 FIP, and 1.28 WHIP. He had also posted a 3.54 SIERA, which was 14th best in the MLB across these three seasons. His 3.66 K/BB ratio was also one of the best in the MLB in these three years, ranking 23rd.

Before 2019, Archer was an extremely durable starter. From his 2014 breakout through 2018, he failed to reach 30 starts in a season just once, and regularly pitched around 200 innings a year. His 10 fWAR was tied with Zack Greinke for the 18th highest in the MLB during this three season stretch. In a weird way, Archer has kind of become underrated because of the amount of fans who consider him overrated.

If Archer gets off to a solid start to the season, his value will go way up, and by the All-Star break or even earlier, teams in need of pitching will definitely call the Pittsburgh Pirates about Archer. So, who are the best trade partners in the event of the Pirates trading the starting pitcher?

PEORIA, ARIZONA – MARCH 10: Shohei Ohtani #17 of the Los Angeles Angels gets ready in the batters box during a spring training game against the Seattle Mariners at Peoria Stadium on March 10, 2020 in Peoria, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images) /

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

One team that needs durability, and possibly another starting pitcher, is the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. When the 2020 season does start, the Angles will open the year with Shohei Ohtani leading the charge, but that’s about it.

They will hope that Griffin Canning can fully breakout, but he would have started the 2020 season on the injured list had the year went about as planned. The rest of the rotation is not too awe-inspiring. Andrew Heaney could be a very solid pitcher when he’s healthy, but the former top prospect has only reached 30+ starts in a single season once in his career, and 100+ innings just twice. Julio Teheran represents a solid, and durable option, but his peripherals leave more questions than answers. While he has had a solid 3.88 ERA in the past two seasons, he has also posted a 4.75 FIP, and his 4.89 SIERA has been the worst among NL pitchers (tied for the worst in the entire MLB with Reynaldo Lopez) in the past two seasons.

Dylan Bundy is another rotation option the Angels acquired this off-season, but he just hasn’t been good at all. The former top 3 prospect has given up 70 home runs in the past two years, including 41 in 2018. Overall, his numbers from his ERA (5.13) to his SIERA (4.22) leave much to be desired, especially for a pitcher who was ranked above guys like Gerrit Cole, Zack Wheeler, and current injured Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Jameson Taillon.

Archer would provide some stability to the Angels rotation, while some durability as well. If the Pirates were to trade Archer to the Angels, the team does have some interesting pieces. They should ask about two-way prospect Jared Walsh. The outfielder/first baseman/left-handed pitcher hit very well at Triple-A last season. In 454 plate appearances, he hit .325/.423/.686 with an outstanding extra base hit total, including 36 home runs and 30 doubles. Overall, he had a 161 wRC+.

He also pitched 13 innings, but did not do well. Walsh gave up 6 earned runs, and issued five walks to go with nine strikeouts. However, he did not give up a single home run. Walsh is getting up there in age for a prospect, turning 27 in July, so the Pittsburgh Pirates should also ask for a young, high upside player like 20-year-old left-handed pitcher Hector Yan.

New York Yankees

I’ve previously said the New York Yankees are a good partner in a trade for Chris Archer, and the uncertainty around their rotation supports that. Now, with the delayed start to the season, James Paxton will likely start the year on the active roster, but he is far from guaranteed to stay healthy through an entire year. Paxton has never started 30 games in a single season, and has passed 160 innings just once.

Former Japanese superstar Masahiro Tanaka has not been an ace level pitcher since 2016. In the past three seasons, he has posted a 4.34 ERA, 3.81 SIERA, 4.22 FIP, and 1.21 WHIP. The rest of the rotation posts many uncertainties as J.A. Happ, former Tommy John Surgery victim Jordan Montgomery, and unproven arms such as Jonathan Loaisiga, Michael King and Deivi Garcia all are candidates for the final spot in the rotation.

In an Archer trade, the Pittsburgh Pirates could be asking for outfielder Clint Frazier. Frazier batted a solid .267/.317/.489 with 12 home runs and a 108 wRC+ in 246 plate appearances during the 2019 season. However, his defense left much to be desired. In the outfield, Frazier had -8 DRS (-2 in left field, -6 in right field), a -5.2 UZR (1.2 in left field, -6.4 in right field), and -4.7 range runs (-0.7 in left field, -4 in right field). The Pirates should also ask the Yanks about pitcher Albert Abreu. The team’s #11 prospect not long ago was a top 100 prospect across the MLB. Although he struggled last season, with an ERA and FIP in the 4’s, the 23-year-old still has above average grades per FanGraphs on his fastball, slider, curveball, and change up.

New York Mets

The other New York team, the Mets, had one of the best 1-2 combos atop their rotation in back-to-back Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom, and the flame throwing Noah Syndergaard leading it off. They also have a solid number three in 2019 deadline acquisition Marcus Stroman. However, Syndegaard will now miss all of 2020 because of Tommy John Surgery. After these three, the questions arise.

Lefty Steven Matz has not panned out as the Mets would have hoped and injuries have been a major bugaboo. The team did sign two other starters this off-season, but neither are anything special. They signed the durable, but inconsistent, Rick Porcello and one time Cardinals top prospect Michael Wacha. Porcello’s Cy Young season has become an outlier in an otherwise solid, but unspectacular career, and Wacha has only started 30 games in a single season twice.

If the Pittsburgh Pirates were to engage in trade talks with the Mets over Archer, they should definitely ask about the team’s 11th best prospect, Kevin Smith. Smith spent his 2019 season between High-A ball, and Double-A. In 117 innings, the left-handed prospect pitched to the tune of a 3.15 ERA, 2.68 FIP, and 1.26 WHIP. He struck out a grand total of 130 batters, and walked just 39. When he did give up hits, only six of them were home runs.

Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves’ starting rotation is one that could be very good, or very bad. Mike Foltynewicz could have a very good bounce back season, and former top prospects like Sean Newcomb and Kyle Wright are in the running for the fifth rotation spot.

The team signed former Cy Young award winner Felix Hernandez to a minor league deal, and he was off to a great start in Spring Training before it was shut down, but he is far from a sure thing. King Felix hasn’t posted an ERA below 4 since 2016, nor has had a DRA under 5 since 2015. They also signed veteran lefty Cole Hamels, but given his injury that would have made him miss the first few weeks of the season had it started as planned, and his sub-par peripherals like a 4.09 FIP and 4.87 DRA, and struggles in the second half of 2019 leave the Braves with some uncertainty.

If Archer gets off to a good start, and if both Hernandez and Hamels struggle, or the young prospects also struggle to hold their own, then the Braves could turn to the Pirates. The Braves still have a top-tier farm system. Even their lowest ranked prospect, that being catcher Logan Brown, is still an intriguing piece. However, the Pirates could probably ask for one of the team’s top 20 prospects, which isn’t unreasonable if Archer is doing well.

Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies have a very top-heavy rotation. 2018 Cy Young candidate Aaron Nola has a very good chance of reproducing numbers closer to 2018 than to 2019, and off-season signee Zack Wheeler are two very good starters. However, past that, the Phillies are left with many question marks.

Former Cubs ace and Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta pitched poorly last year, and his velocity on all his pitches are trending in the wrong direction. He has been on a decline since 2017. Zach Eflin, Vince Velasquez, and Nick Pivetta are also in the running for another rotation spot, but none of them are very good options. None of the three produced league average results last season, and do not exactly have a good history, either.

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The Phillies do not have nearly as deep of a farm system as the Braves, however, but that doesn’t mean they are devoid of any talent. One name that might be brought up is their 24th best prospect, Deivy Grullon. Grullon is a slugging catching prospect. He hit very well at Triple-A last season, slashing .283/.354/.496 with 21 home runs, and 115 wRC+. According to MLB Pipeline, his best tool is his arm at a 65 grade, but overall he isn’t a great fielder, coming in at a 45 grade with the leather. Regardless, he still has a career 29% caught stealing percentage. However, Grullon is a bit on the older side, as he will be 24 in 2020, so the Pittsburgh Pirates may also want to ask for another high upside player in the deal.

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