What Pittsburgh Pirates Fans Can Expect From Josh Bell’s Bat Next Season

Pittsburgh Pirates first baseman Josh Bell’s breakout season had it’s very high peaks and very low valleys. So what should you expect from him in 2020?

Pittsburgh Pirates slugger Josh Bell’s breakout 2019 season was outstanding. In 613 plate appearances, Bell hit for a .277/.367/.569 line. He blasted 37 home runs, while racking up 37 doubles. The switch hitting slugger had posted a 135 wRC+ and a 143 OPS+, which represents an elite level hitter. That OPS+ ranked just behind Jeff McNeil (144), who ranked 10th in the MLB. At first base, Bell ranked 4th among qualified players at the position. Bell also posted a 131 DRC+, which nearly tied him with Atlanta’s former third baseman Josh Donaldson (130).

Bell is one of baseball’s best hard hit ball experts. Josh ranked in the 96th percentile of exit velocity at 92.3 MPH, and at the top 90th percentile of hard hit % (45.4%). These are massive upgrades from 2018. He gained 2.3 MPH on his exit velocity, and hit the ball harder more than 10% more often from the previous season.

One of the slugger’s best calling cards is his plate discipline, which has gotten better over the years. Although he struck out at a career high 19.2% rate in 2019, that still represents a better than average percentage. He also walked 12.1% of the time, and ranked 22nd in the MLB.

Although he was more of a free swinger last season, going after pitches outside the zone 30.2% of the time, he made contact with outside pitches 66.5% of the time. That’s a 1.5% upgrade from 2018. He also swung at more pitches inside the zone at a 77.8% rate.

Bell was also one of the Pittsburgh Pirates most clutch batters in 2019. With runners in scoring position, Bell had a 1.119 OPS and 171 wRC+, both being career highs. With runners on base in general, the first time All-Star had a 1.066 OPS and 163 wRC+. Although he did not rack up as many hits in high leverage situations, when he did get a hit, it was for extra bases. 13 of his 23 hits in high leverage moments went for extra bases, with six doubles and seven home runs.

However, we should mention that Bell suffered a summer slump. Bell did great through the season’s first two months, batting .343/.405/.704 with 18 home runs. He was on pace to hit 53 out of the park. But through June and July, Bell hit just .213/.318/.448. Then he rebounded to hit a much better .258/.377/.516 line and 10 home runs through his final 154 plate appearances.

Bell got both lucky and unlucky throughout 2019. In the first two months, he had a .368 batting average on balls in play, which was well above his career average, but then it suddenly dropped to .241 from the All-Star break onward. Well .241 is just plain unlucky considering the MLB average in 2019 was .298 and his career average was .290. He even walked more and struck out less on average in the second half as well.

Now, you should not expect Bell to come back whenever the next MLB season is and hit like he did in April/May 2019 for a full season. However, his BAbip suggests that his June/July 2019 was more of a fluke than the expectation. Bell had a .283 xBA, much closer to his season .277 BA, and his exit velocity numbers support that claim as well.

Next season, Bell should continue to hit around .270-.280, and post his usually strong walk numbers, consistently. He has never walked less than 10% of the time in a single season, and his average walk rate since 2018 is 12.6%.

In terms of power,  odds are, his 2018 days are behind him when he posted a .411 slugging percentage and hit only a dozen home runs across an entire season. However, his 37 home runs may not continue. With the baseball becoming un-juiced for lack of a better term of the baseballs becoming less home run prone, power numbers across the entire MLB will likely fall. Bell should reach the 30 double and .500 slugging mark once again, but fans should expect closer to 30 home runs instead of nearly 40.

Next season, you should expect Bell to hit around .275/.370/.510 with 30 home runs/doubles. That’s still an extremely productive batter, and would put him on par with 2019 seasons from Ronald Acuna Jr., Bryce Harper, Justin Turner, and Max Muncy.