Pittsburgh Pirates Projected Win Total With Potential Modified Divisions

MLB has discussed a plan to play the 2020 season entirely in Florida and Arizona with modified divisions. How do these potential divisions impact the Pittsburgh Pirates projected win total?

As everyone knows by now, if there is a 2020 MLB season, it will be unlike any the Pittsburgh Pirates or any other team have seen before. MLB has been at a standstill since the suspension of Spring Training back on March 12 due to the coronavirus pandemic. Due to the coronavirus pandemic, it is unknown if/when the 2020 MLB season will start.

In an effort to get a shortened season played, MLB has discussed multiple potential plans for games. According to reports, their most recent discussion would see teams play their games at their Spring Training homes in Florida and Arizona. This would create two different leagues for the season, with each state containing three divisions. Obviously, this would lead to different opponents than usual for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2020.

If this is the plan MLB goes with for the 2020 season, the Pirates will find themselves in one of the three divisions in the state of Florida. Each division would have five teams. In addition to the Pirates, the potential ‘North’ division would also include the Detroit Tigers, New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, and Toronto Blue Jays.

So, let’s say this comes to fruition. Let’s say this is the division the Pittsburgh Pirates play in during the 2020 season. What does this do for the team’s projected win total?

FanGraphs took a stab at projecting win totals for teams under the Cactus/Grapefruit League model. FanGraphs’ projections are assuming both leagues will use the designated hitter over the course of a 112 game season.

These projections have the Pittsburgh Pirates finishing with a 48-64 record. This would put the team 12th out of 15 teams in the Grapefruit League. In their potential division, it would put them 4th out of 5 teams, finishing ahead of just the Tigers.

Based on winning percentage, this would be a slight improve over 2019. Last season the Pirates finish 69-93, which was a .426 winning percentage. A 48-64 record would be good for a .429 winning percentage. Not exactly what Pirate fans are yearning for. But, hey, that’s an improvement!

What about the team’s playoff odds if they play under this format? Well, those increase by a small amount. Playing in the NL Central, FanGraphs gave the Pirates a 0.8% chance of making the postseason. Under the potential Grapefruit League format, the Pirates have a 1.1% shot of making the postseason.

Now, it needs to be said that no one knows how the postseason will work if there is a 2020 season. FanGraphs made these projections with the assumption the three division winners would make the postseason, while two teams play in a one game playoff. So, the same setup that MLB currently has.