Pittsburgh Pirates Prospects: Best Pitching Tools

Fastball – Tahnaj Thomas

MLB Pipeline: 60

FanGraphs: 60, future 70

Acquired by the Pittsburgh Pirates from the Indians in the Jordan Luplow trade, Tahnaj Thomas has the best fastball in the Pirates minor league system. Although, Thomas usually does not throw it for an overwhelming amount of velocity, with it averaging out in the mid-90s, he can crank it into the high-90s when he needs to. Thomas can give the pitch some movement as well, especially up high.

Thomas’ fastball helped him breakout last season. The top prospect (ranked as the 77th best prospect by FanGraphs) pitched in 48.1 innings in Bristol Rookie Ball. The former Indians prospect struck out 59 batters and walked just 14, resulting in a strong 4.21 K/BB ratio and a 7% walk rate. That walk rate is nearly half of what it was in previous seasons. He also posted strong overall numbers including a 3.17 ERA and a 3.67 FIP. Thomas already possesses a plus curveball as part of his arsenal, and he is working on his change up. However, his change up does not grade nearly as high.

Currently, Thomas is a starter, but could eventually end up in the bullpen if his change up doesn’t develop.

Curveball – Santiago Florez

MLB Pipeline: 55

FanGraphs: 50, future 60

Santiago Florez was an international free agent signing by the Pittsburgh Pirates out of Colombia. Florez has shown potential to be a good pitcher, but just has not seemed to put it all together yet. Florez has a fastball, change up, and curveball, but the curve is his best pitch.

MLB Pipeline states Florez can throw the pitch with tons of spin rate, giving the ball a good amount of movement. Right now, FanGraphs gives it an average grade, and MLB Pipeline says it’s above average. But both see the pitch as above average in the future.

Last season in Bristol, Florez put up some middling numbers. Despite his 3.46 ERA, the right hander walked batters at a 4.54 BB/9 and 11% rate, and struck them out at a sub-par 7.78 K/9 and 19.9% rate. In 41.2 innings, his K/BB ration was a weak 1.71. However, home runs are not an issue for the 19 year old. He gave up just four last season, and gave up zero across 43.1 innings in 2018. His lowest single season ground ball rate was still a strong 44.3% in 2017.

Michael Burrows came in a close second here, but since Florez was a starter as of right now, I weighed him a bit more heavily.

Slider – Mitch Keller

MLB Pipeline: 50

FanGraphs: 60, future 60

Now, yes, Cody Bolton has a better grade according to MLB Pipeline, but we can make it easier to judge Mitch Keller because we can see the movement and results on the pitch in the Majors through Baseball Savant.

Keller’s slider sits with 35.9 inches of vertical movement and 4.1 inches of horizontal break. Both of which are better than the MLB average. Keller also has a fastball, change up, and curveball to complement the slider. At the MLB level, it was his best pitch as he put away 29.5% of all batters he faced with it, and opponents slugged just .235 against the pitch.

Keller was one of the best, if not the best, pitcher at the Triple-A level last season. In 103.2 innings, Keller held batters to a 3.56 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and a 3.60 FIP. That also includes a strong 28.2% strikeout rate and just an 8% walk rate. He also allowed just nine home runs, and induced ground balls at a solid 44.7% rate. Among Triple-A pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched, Keller was top three in ERA (3rd), FIP (1st), WHIP (3rd), strikeout rate (1st), HR/9 (1st), K/BB rate (tied for 1st), and batting average against (3rd).

Despite not putting up as good of run prevention numbers at the Major League level, he was really hurt by bad defense and a .475 batting average on balls in play. However, he still struck out 65 of the 227 batters he faced, and walked only 16. He also gave up only six home runs, resulting in a solid 1.1 HR/9. Keller still carried strong ERA predictors including a 3.19 FIP, 3.78 SIERA, 3.47 xFIP, and 4.13 DRA. He also sat in the top 69th percentile in exit velocity and top 59th percentile of hard hit rate. Overall, opponents were projected to have a .265 batting average against, but, in reality, they hit for a .343 average impart due to that BAbip.

Change Up – Quinn Priester

MLB Pipeline: 50

FanGraphs: 45, Future 55

Quinn Priester was drafted by the Pittsburgh Pirates in the 1st round of the 2019 draft. The 19-year-old only threw 36.2 innings (32.2 innings from Rookie Ball Bristol, 4 at short-season West Virginia), but did pretty good in those few innings.

He surrendered just 13 earned runs, and issued just 14 walks to go with 41 strikeouts. Four of those walks, however, came in the very short amount of time he spent at short-season West Virginia last year. However, the most impressive part was his home run rate. Of the 32 hits he gave up, only one left the ballpark. Overall, he carried a strong 2.83 FIP.

Although he has the best change up among Pirate prospects, it’s not his best pitch. That would be his fastball. He carries a four-seamer and two-seamer. His four-seam fastball sits in the mid-90s, and can reel back for more heat. His two-seam fastball sits in the low-90s, which is what got most of his ground balls on. His curveball is also very strong, having a 60 grade by MLB Pipeline and 55 future grade by FanGraphs.

For more info on Priester, make sure to check out Cody’s ‘A Day in a the Life of a Minor Leaguer’ piece about Priester. It is a terrific read, and Priester is a very interesting person to get to know better.

Control and Command – Steve Jennings

MLB Pipeline: 55

FanGraphs (Command): 45, future 60

Right-handed pitcher Steve Jennings was drafted by the Pittsburgh Pirates in the 2nd round of the 2017 MLB Draft. The 21-year-old Jennings is ranked as the team’s 17th best prospect on MLB Pipeline and 23rd best prospect according to FanGraphs.

Jennings has not done anything all that impressive yet in the minors, but 2019 was his best season so far. At Low-A Greensboro, Jennings accumulated 130 innings, and posted a 4.71 ERA, 4.23 FIP and a 1.33 WHIP. Both his FIP and WHIP are career bests so far in his young career.

Jennings has a four pitch mix that includes a fastball, curveball, slider and change up. His best pitch is his slider, grading out as a 50 with a future of 55, but the other three pitches grade as average to below average according to both MLB Pipeline and FanGraphs. While he is not projected to be any sort of ace, he will provide solid results as a durable workhorse kind of pitcher. Akin to something of an Ivan Nova or Mike Leake.

In terms of overall control, he hasn’t really flashed that yet. Last year, he posted a 7.1% walk rate and a 2.7 BB/9. While those are still solid numbers, and career bests, they are not super impressive. Guys like J.T. Brubaker and Pedro Vasquez have posted overall similar control numbers, but with better results.