Going Full Run Prevention with the Pittsburgh Pirates

After having one of the worst defenses in baseball in 2019, the Pittsburgh Pirates could possesses one of the best defenses in baseball in 2020

The Pittsburgh Pirates were a woeful defense team in 2019. In total, they had -46 DRS, -54 UZR, -33.5 range runs above average, and -6.7 arm runs above average. They ranked near the bottom, or were at the bottom, of all defensive ratings last season. In 2020, however, it appears that the Pirates may be going full run prevention. This is a tactic they should stick to this year.

The first way they’ll be adding value through defense is with the designated hitter. Because of the DH in the National League in 2020, Josh Bell will see a significant amount of time off the field. Bell might have been worth nearly 4+ WAR offensively, he was only worth about 2.5 WAR in total because of his atrocious defense. Bell had -8 DRS, -1.3 range runs and -7.5 UZR. Worst of all was his -16.4 UZR/150 and -5 outs above average. Replacing him would be Jose Osuna and Will Craig. Two guys who even if they aren’t the best defenders in baseball, are overall average fielders to slightly below average fielders at the worst. Still though, improvements over Bell.

Not only will they be taking out one bad defender off the field more often, but likely a second one in Colin Moran. It appears Moran will see a lot less time at third base, a position where he had -21 DRS, -5.2 range runs, and a -8.8 UZR. He also had a UZR/150 in the negative double digits at -16.

Replacing Moran would be what is probably already one of the best defensive third basemen in pro ball, one of the Pittsburgh Pirates top position player prospects Ke’Bryan Hayes. According to FanGraphs, Hayes has a current fielding grade of 60, but a future of 70. Along with that, he also has a 60 current and future arm grade. He is the only infielder with a current grade of at least 60 for both his fielding ability and his arm, while being one of 4 infielders with 70/60 future fielding/arm grades.

Another position where defense might be added is shortstop. Last year, Kevin Newman was the Pittsburgh Pirates primary shortstop. But he was a poor fielder at the position with -7 DRS, -4.0 range runs above average and -5.2 UZR. He was pretty bad in terms of UZR/150, nearly touching double digits with -9.8. Cole Tucker, even if he is never that great of a batter, will definitely make it up with his defensive ability. In the short amount of time he played last season, the switch hitter had +2 DRS, 0.3 range runs and +4.6 UZR/150. The question then becomes if the Pirates will roll with Tucker at shortstop on an every day basis.

In the outfield, the Pittsburgh Pirates will see a handful of innings from Jarrod Dyson. While Starling Marte might have been a bad defensive/good offensive center fielder, Dyson is on the other end of the spectrum. Dyson only has a career 78 OPS+/80 wRC+, but despite entering his mid-30s, Dyson is still one of the best outfield defenders in all of baseball.

Last year, Dyson was 6th in DRS (+14), 2nd in arm runs above average (5.6), 8th in UZR (7.9), and was in the top 90th percentile of outs above average even though he had less than 900 innings in the field. Dyson also covers plenty of ground with 1.3 range runs above average. In comparison, Marte only had +9 DRS, -9.5 range runs above average and -7.6 UZR.

Now are there going to be some offensive questions if they’re going with an all-defense squad? Absolutely. The Pittsburgh Pirates trading Marte means they lost a guy who hit .295/.342/.503 with 23 home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a 119 OPS+/120 wRC+. If you are moving Adam Frazier to a utility role, that might be taking away plate appearances from a better offensive player to give to Cole Tucker.

Plus, Frazier hit .303/.361/.474 from July onward last year. Are  Osuna and Craig going to be good enough defensively to offset their bat? However, the overall defensive contributions should make up for that. Plus they might even see some potential offensive upgrades at some positions.

Not only is Hayes a top tier defensive infielder, but he can also run and could easily replace Moran’s offensive value. Hayes has a 60 current and 55 future speed grade, and has stolen at least a dozen bases three straight seasons. While he did struggle offensively last year at Triple-A, he was injured, and has a 55 future hit grade. Hayes was doing great in spring training before it ended in March. He also owned an exit velocity of 92 MPH, the 9th highest among all top 100 prospects on FanGraphs’ list.

In the past two years, Moran has only hit for a .749 OPS and 101 OPS+/98 wRC+, which is very replaceable, and easy to surpass. One prospect could eventually replace Dyson this season in Jared Oliva. In the past two seasons, Oliva has put up a 124 wRC+ and 123 wRC+. Although he isn’t much of a power hitter, he does get some base hits, and puts up a solid OBP, with a .275 and .277 BA and .354 and .352 OBP in the past two years. That’s pretty valuable considering he has stolen 69 bases in 87 attempts and has a 60 current and future speed grade. He might not be the defensive outfielder Dyson is, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t bad. After all, it’s pretty hard to be as good at defense as Dyson is. Oliva still has a 55 future fielding grade and 50 future arm grade. Plus, with his speed, he can cover some ground.

The Pittsburgh Pirates going full run prevention will definitely help them add runs in ways they didn’t last year. They’ll be replacing many below average defenders with well above average defenders, and moving players to positions they are better at with the glove. Defense is one of the many things that killed the Pirates last year, so hopefully with a much better defensive team they might find a way to win more games.