Pittsburgh Pirates: Three Bold Predictions for 2020

Joe Musgrove will lead Pirate starting pitchers in ERA… again

If you watched the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2019, then you know their pitching staff struggled. Jameson Taillon, who made just seven starts before having to undergo a second Tommy John Surgey, aside, righty Joe Musgrove led Pirate starting pitchers in ERA in 2019.

The problem is Musgrove’s ERA was 4.44. This, however, does not properly represent the season Musgrove had. Musgrove posted a 3.82 FIP, which was the second-lowest of his career, while his 31 starts, 170.1 innings pitched and 21.9% strikeout rate were all career highs.

Big Joe also finished the season strong. In his final seven starts, he posted a 3.57 ERA, 2.69 FIP, 4.2% walk rate, and a 25.4% strikeout rate to go with a 0.67 HR/9 in 40.1 innings of work. This helped push Musgrove to finishing the season with a career best 3.3 fWAR.

In 2020, Musgrove will once again lead the Pittsburgh Pirates in ERA. However, it will be better than his 4.44 ERA. It will be well below that, in fact, checking in at no worse than 3.50.

Musgrove’s Deserved Run Average, which determines how many runs a pitcher deserved to allow, was just 3.59 in 2019. He also leaned on his slider, which is his best pitch, more in his final seven starts. Doing that for a full season will help to improve Musgrove’s results in 2020 as he leads all Pirate starting pitchers in ERA for a second consecutive season.