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Projecting the Pittsburgh Pirates Opening Day Bullpen
With the start of the shortened 60-game 2020 season less than three weeks away, what could the Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen look like when the season starts?
Even though the coronavirus continues to wreak havoc on the United States, Major League Baseball still plans to start their 2020 regular season on July 23 and/or 24. Last week, the Pittsburgh Pirates, along with the rest of baseball, began training for the season at their home ballparks. Fingers are crossed, and people remain cautiously optimistic that baseball will be played this summer.
As we forge forward into the unknown, although, hopefully, it will be an unknown that includes baseball, predictions can start to be made about the 2020 season. Well, at least the best predictions that can be made for a 60-game season during a global virus pandemic.
One of the types of predictions fans will start to see the next few weeks will be about what each team’s Opening Day roster will look like. What will be there starting lineup? Who will be in each starting rotation? What about each team’s bench and bullpen?
Well, today, we will take our first such stab at making a prediction for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Today, we will take a stab at predicting the team’s Opening Day bullpen.
Since MLB teams will be permitted to start the season with a 30-man roster, my guess is there will be a lot of 10-man bullpens. This prediction for the Pittsburgh Pirates will be under the assumption that they will roll with a 10-man bullpen to start the season.
The Opening Day locks
For one reason or another, there are likely four pitchers who are a lock to be in the Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen on Opening Day. For some of these pitchers it is a lack of minor league options, for some it’s due to their pedigree and track record. While for others, it’s a combination of the two.
The five pitchers that appear to be locks, or close to, for the Opening Day bullpen are Keone Kela, Kyle Crick, Nick Burdi, and Michael Feliz.
Kela’s is self explanatory, he is the Pirates’ closer. End of discussion. As for Crick, his is rather cut and dry as well. Despite struggling in the final three months of the 2019 season, Crick was still lights out in 2018 and will likely begin the season as one of Kela’s main set up men. Also, a lot of Crick’s struggles in 2019 could likely be contributed to pitching in what became a toxic environment for him in Pittsburgh’s clubhouse. Look for a bounce back season from Crick in 2020.
As for Burdi, there may not be a single pitcher in the bullpen with a higher ceiling. The former Rule 5 Draft pick has a triple digits fastball and a wipe out slider. However, he has never been able to stay healthy in his career.
Because of a nerve issue that required surgery, Burdi pitched in just 8.2 innings for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2019. Due to this, he still carries Rule 5 status and must make the team’s Opening Day roster or else they will have to return him to the Minnesota Twins. Burdi will be in the ‘pen on Opening Day.
As for Feliz, he is out of minor league options. Additionally, he quietly had a strong season for the Pirates in 2019. Taking away his disaster of an outing when he was used as an opener against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Feliz owned a 3.21 ERA, 31.3% strikeout rate and he limited opposing batters to a .384 slugging percentage in 56 innings as a reliever. While his 11.2% walk rate and 1.61 HR/9 were both higher than you would like to see, Feliz has the stuff to be a quality MLB reliever. New pitching coach Oscar Marin will be looking to help Feliz tap into that potential this season.
Three pitchers who are out of minor league options
Every spring you see it throughout baseball. Players making an Opening Day roster, largely due to being out of minor league options, and fans of that team being upset. Well, for fans of the Pittsburgh Pirates, this applies as much as it does to every other team.
There are three relief pitchers the Pirates have in camp who are out of minor league options, who, as a result of being out of options, will likely find themselves with a spot in the Opening Day bullpen. These three pitchers are Clay Holmes, Chris Stratton and Dovydas Neverauskas.
Earlier in the offseaosn, Noah wrote about Holmes as a potential breakout candidate in 2020. Holmes has some nasty stuff out of the bullpen, and with refined pitch usage could be a solid reliever. During Grapefruit League play, Holmes appeared to be turning a corner as he did not allow a hit, a run, did not walk a batter, and struck a batter out in 2.1 innings of work before breaking his foot. Fortunately for Holmes, due to the delayed start to the season he will not have to start the season on the injured list now.
As for Stratton and Neverauskas, the arguments to keep them around may not be as warm to some fans. Especially Stratton who struggled in Grapefruit League play. However, he, like Feliz, had a better season in 2019 than most realize outside of one poor outing. Additionally, his fastball spin rate ranked in the 93rd percentile in all of baseball while his curveball spin rate was in the 99th percentile. Lack of stuff is not an issue for Stratton.
As for Neverauskas, Pirate fans have seen plenty of him in recent seasons and I’m sure most fans would like to forget about it. But this is a new regime which gives Neverasukas a fresh start. Prior to Grapefruit League play being suspended, Neverauskas had allowed a pair of runs on five hits, no home runs, two walks, and seven strikeouts in 5.2 innings of work. Combine this strong showing with a lack of options, and there is a good shot he gets one last opportunity in Pittsburgh.
The other three bullpen spots
There are a few different names that could be in play here. Maybe young, talented arms such as Blake Cederlind, if he has recovered from the coronavirus, or Geoff Hartlieb should get the nod. But the safer bet would appear to be veteran minor league free agent signee Robbie Erlin, as well as righties Chad Kuhl and Richard Rodriguez.
Starting with Erlin, he can opt out of his contract if he is not on the Opening Day roster and the bullpen needs a lefty. Combine that with a 3.86 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 0.94 HR/9, 3.9% walk rate, and 21.1% strikeout rate in 114.1 career relief innings, and Erlin is a safe bet to make the cut.
Kuhl could still be competing for the final spot in the team’s starting rotation, but it appears that will go to Steven Brault, at least to start the season. But as Kuhl continues to work his way back from Tommy John Surgery, the team will want him pitching in games. With the minor leagues not being an option for that, look for Kuhl to be a long/swing man out of the bullpen to start the season. It would not be a surprise to see him starting games before the season ends.
Finally, there is Rodriguez. The last two seasons Rodriguez has pitched 135 games for the Pittsburgh Pirates logging 134.2 innings of work. After a spectacular season in 2018, Rodriguez struggled in 2019 as his FIP rose from 2.60 to 5.22, HR/9 from 0.65 to an alarming 1.93, walk rate from 6.8% to 8.1%, and his strikeout rate dropped from 31.5% to 22.1%. These struggles even led to him seeing some time at the Triple-A level.
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Without expanded rosters, Rodriguez making the Opening Day bullpen likely was not a lock. Especially since he still has minor league options remaining. But with the expanded rosters to start the season, look for him to sneak into the Pirate ‘pen.