Projecting the Pittsburgh Pirates Opening Day Lineup

Catcher

Jacob Stallings will be the clear regular behind the dish for the Pittsburgh Pirates heading into 2020. Stallings did not do all that bad for a catcher in the hitting department, slashing .262/.325/.382 with an 87 OPS+, and 82 wRC+. Plus, with an xWOBA of .313, 96 deserved runs created, and xSlugging of .423, Stallings could be quite the underrated bat in the Pirates’ line up.

However. even if he doesn’t improve offensively, he’ll be just fine as the Pittsburgh Pirates regular catcher. After all, Stallings could be a legitimate National League Gold Glove Award candidate this year.

In 2019, Stallings had +14 DRS, caught 40% of the runners trying to steal on him and was an outstanding pitch framer. His 8.7 framing runs saved was the 11th highest mark in baseball, and that was in a limited 463.1 innings behind the plate. Across a whole 1000 innings, he could easily be the best framer in all of baseball. By the end of the season, Pirate starting pitchers were requesting that Stallings caught them for a reason.

While Stallings will start behind the plate, Luke Maile and John Ryan Murphy could see playing time as well. But this will be a big season for Stallings as he looks to prove he is a legitimate number one catcher at the MLB level.

First Base

Now, this one is a bit up in the air. Currently, the Pittsburgh Pirates have two players who are in the running for regular first base duties: Jose Osuna and Will Craig.

Osuna seems to be the front runner right now to take the field Opening Day. Last year, Osuna was roughly a league average bat last season, finishing the year with a .264/.310/.456 line, 100 OPS+ and 97 wRC+. He also hit 10 home runs to go with 20 doubles in 285 plate appearances. Osuna struck out just 16.8% of the time, which is a very good mark.

Defensively, at the worst, he’s a league average glove. Throughout his MLB career, Osuna has collected 461 innings at first base posting -1 DRS, -0.9 UZR, +1.1 range runs above average, and +1 total zone runs above average.

Craig is also a very similar player to Osuna. There are not any big questions about his glove. He’s at the worst an average defender at first with a 50 fielding grade per MLB Pipeline. But his bat will definitely carry a handful of questions.

For one, he only hit .249/.326/.435 with 23 home runs and doubles through 556 plate appearances. In such a hitter friendly environment, Craig had a 92 wRC+, making him about 8% worse than the league average. The Pirates’ front office also have questionable faith in the 25-year-old as they left him off their MLB squad on the 60-player pool, instead opting to leave him as a depth option on the taxi squad. But a strong Summer Camp might change the organization’s minds.

Second Base

Adam Frazier is penciled in as the team’s second baseman for Opening Day. But don’t be surprised if that changes at some point before the end of the 2020 season.

Frazier produced roughly league average results at the plate with a .278/.336/.417 line with a 97 wRC+ and 99 OPS+ through 608 plate appearances. He also posted an exact league average wOBA at .320. Frazier tied his career high in home runs at 10, and exceeded his career high doubles total at 33.

Fielding wise, Frazier was excellent. This was different from his career norms of being a below average defender. Despite his -1 DRS, he had +7 total zone runs above average, a 2.9 UZR, 1.6 range runs above average, and an impressive 11 outs above average, which places him within the top 97th percentile of OAA.

All of that said, the Pittsburgh Pirates long term plans at second base likely do not include Frazier. Due to this, it would not be a surprise to see the team trade him before the August 31 trade deadline. After all, the team did spend much of the offseason discussing him in trade talks with other clubs.

Shortstop

Like with second base, who is currently playing the position now could change very early on in the 2020 season. But, for now, the Pittsburgh Pirates have penciled in Kevin Newman as the team’s current shortstop.

Last year, Newman was a bit of an under the radar rookie, seeing as he batted .308/.353/.446, hit a dozen home runs to go with 16 stolen bases, had a 110 wRC+, but didn’t receive a single National League Rookie of the Year vote. Defensively, Newman was one of the worst shortstops in baseball with -7 DRS, -4 range runs above average and -5.2 UZR. All of these ranked as the 5th worst mark among shortstops last year with at least 800 innings at the position. Regardless, he’ll open the season as the team’s starting shortstop.

But if either Newman or Frazier get off to a slow start, then the defensively gifted Cole Tucker will likely get the opportunity to take over at short. Tucker had +2 DRS, 0.3 range runs above average and a 4.6 UZR/150 in the short amount of time he was in the Majors. Plus, after getting off to a slow start offensively to his MLB career, Tucker was improving in the home stretch of the 2019 season. His final 51 plate appearances saw him hit .267/.353/.511. Plus with an above average hard hit rate Tucker’s bat isn’t a big worry for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Newman is also a better defender at second base. In fact, he rates out as an above average defender at second. So, it would not be a surprise to see Tucker at shortstop and Newman at second base by the end of the season.

Third Base

While it’s not what most fans of the Pittsburgh Pirates wanted to hear, new manager Derek Shelton stated Colin Moran will get the majority of the nods at third base for the team in 2020. That means he’ll be the Opening Day third baseman unless an injury occurs.

This is a bit of a disappointing statement. Moran only batted .277/.322/.429 with 13 home runs and 30 doubles in 2019. He also had a 23.3% strikeout rate to go with a weak 6% walk rate. All told, he had a 97 OPS+ and 94 wRC+. That might have been passable production at the plate if Moran was a good fielder, which he isn’t.

Moran had -21 DRS, a -8.8 UZR and -5.2 range runs above average. Among players with at least 800 innings at the hot corner, he ranked last in DRS, second to last in UZR and third to last in range runs.

Like with Newman, Moran might open the season as the team’s primary answer at third base for now, but I say for now because it’s more than likely that they’ll only stick with Moran until Ke’Bryan Hayes can be called up. For now, Hayes will probably be optioned for service time reasons. However, Hayes could easily replace Moran’s offensive work, and is already one of the best professional third basemen defensively.

Left Field

2019 rookie standout Bryan Reynolds is the lock to be in left field for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Reynolds’s rookie campaign was simply outstanding. In 546 plate appearances, Reynolds put up a .314/.377/.503 line with 16 home runs and 37 doubles. These 37 doubles were a new Pirate rookie record.

Among rookies in baseball with at least 300 plate appearances, the switch hitter was 5th in wRC+ (131), wOBA (.371), fWAR (3.2), and OPS (.880). Although there have been some questions about his bat as he had a high batting average on balls in play at .387, it shouldn’t majorly affect him as he can hit to all fields, and makes hard contact quite often.

In left field, Reynolds wasn’t awful defensively, but he isn’t going to be a Gold Glove Award finalist, either. Overall at the position, he had +1 DRS, but -3.8 UZR and -0.2 range runs above average. All told in the outfield, he had +2 outs above average. Look for Reynolds to be among the team’s best players not just in 2020, but for the foreseeable future as he continues to be one of the main building blocks in the team’s new core. A long term extension with Reynolds may simply be a question of when, not if.

Center Field

The Pittsburgh Pirates appear to be going all in on run prevention this year. This will include getting a lot of defense out of their new center fielder, veteran speedster Jarrod Dyson.

Although now into his mid-30s, Dyson is still a top tier outfield defender. Through 879 innings coming from all three outfield spots, but mainly center field, Dyson had +14 DRS, +7.9 UZR, +1.3 range runs above average, and +5.7 outfield arm runs above average. Despite not reaching the 1000 innings mark, Dyson was still top 10 in DRS, UZR and arm runs. This is a big upgrade over Starling Marte who, surprisingly, ranked next to last in DRS, and UZR, and last in range runs among center fielders with at least 800 innings.

But while it is a major upgrade defensively, it’s going to be a major downgrade offensively. In the past three seasons, Dyson has only hit .229/.310/.317 with a 68 OPS+ and 71 wRC+. Dyson can still swipe bags at a good rate, stealing 30 in 34 attempts last year, but his overall offense obviously is not good. Regardless, his defense has made up for it as he still has a positive fWAR in those three years.

Right Field

If you look up the definition of inconsistency in the dictionary, Gregory Polanco’s picture is right beside it. Sometimes, Polanco will go on month-long streaks where he looks like the player we all expected him to be. Other times, he looks completely lost at the plate.

Polanco seemed to put it all together in 2018 when he hit .254/.340/.499 with 23 homers, 32 doubles and a dozen stolen bases in 535 plate appearances. He also had a 128 OPS+ and 123 wRC+. Polanco really hit his stride June onward when he hit .281/.354/.547 with 15 long balls in 81 games/318 plate appearances. He also wasn’t awful defensively with -3 DRS, but +1.5 arm runs above average.

But a hard slide took him out of most of September 2018, and most of the 2019 season as a whole. It’s clear that he wasn’t fully healthy in 2019 as he sporadically played 42 games throughout the season and put up a .726 OPS and 90 OPS+ in 167 plate appearances.

If his Spring Training is any indication, Polanco is back to full health. In the 27 plate appearances he got before training was ended, Polanco had 8 hits, half of which went for extra bases (one home run, three doubles), and walked six times to oppose seven strikeouts. Hopefully, the injury didn’t set back the outfielder too much, as he will open the year as the Pirates primary right fielder.

Designated Hitter

For the 2020 season, all MLB teams will have a designated hitter. And nobody on the Pirates’ roster is more perfect for that than Josh Bell.

The switch hitting slugger had an outstanding breakout year in 2019. Through 613 plate appearances, Bell blasted 37 home runs to go with 37 doubles. He also hit .277/.367/.569 with a 135 wRC+. His wRC+ ranked 4th among all first basemen, and his wOBA of .378 ranked 5th.

Bell seemed to be suffering from a bit of fatigue in the second half of 2019. Although he still hit for a strong .258/.377/.516 line and hit 10 home runs in his final 154 plate appearances of the season, it was nothing like his first half numbers of .301/.376/.625 with 22 home runs from the beginning of the year to the end of June. Playing less of the field will give Bell the rest he needs to stay energized and healthy through a whole season. A shortened season may also help him in the future as well.

But defensively, Bell was about as bad at first base as Moran was at third base. Bell clocked in with -8 DRS, -1.3 range runs above average, and -7.5 UZR. Bell tied with White Sox Jose Abreu for last place in DRS, and was nearly twice as bad compared to the next to last player in UZR, Braves Freddie Freeman, -4.5 (Freeman) to -7.5 (Bell).