Rum Bunter 2020 Pittsburgh Pirates Staff Predictions: Noah

Bold Prediction: Pirates Have Two Players Get Cy Young Votes

If you want bold, this is it. The Pittsburgh Pirates haven’t had a player finish with any Cy Young votes since 2015 with Gerrit Cole finishing 4th in voting. You know you have a good pitching staff when your team gets two players with Cy Young votes, but I think the Pirates can do it. The first one being Keller. I’ve already said why I think Keller will be an outstanding player. But the other player, Joe Musgrove, has the potential to be just as good.

Since coming over from Houston in the Cole trade, Musgrove has a 4.28 ERA, but really strong peripherals. For one, in those two seasons, the right hander has a 3.72 FIP. He has also been a control artist, walking just 1.95 batters per 9 innings, and having a 5.1% walk rate.

Those are almost identical control numbers to the two-time Cy Young winner, Jacob deGrom (1.92 BB/9, 5.5% walk rate). Musgrove has also allowed just a HR/9 of 1.04 since the beginning of 2018, which actually ties him with Corey Kluber. Despite being a control-heavy pitcher, he still can get some strikeouts with a 21.4% strikeout rate the past two years.

In terms of deserved run average, Musgrove has excelled in that too. In 2018, he had a 3.43 DRA, and last year he had a 3.59 DRA. Clearly, it’s been bad batted ball luck that has hurt Musgrove. In both years, his opponent xBA has been lower than their actual BA. He also had a strong 3.35 xERA in 2018. Despite inducing soft contact at a 20.2% rate in 2018 and 19.2% rate in 2019 while posting a ground ball rate above 40% in both seasons with runners on base, Musgrove still has a sub-70% left on base rate. If the baseball is truly unjucied, and the defense holds up, Musgrove could get a Cy Young vote or two. After all, he has the potential to be the Pirates’ co-ace with Keller.