Rum Bunter’s 2020 Pittsburgh Pirates Staff Predictions: Stephen Strosko

Team MVP – Kevin Newman

I am a huge fan of Kevin Newman, for many different reasons. Newman had an insane rookie season last year, slashing .308/.353/.446 while also adding 12 home runs and 16 stolen bases. Was it as good as Bryan Reynolds’s rookie season or Josh Bell’s first half? No. But I think that Newman has the tools to repeat his 2019 performance year after year, making him the future most valuable player on the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2020.

While some people may be underwhelmed by Newman’s 2.4 WAR (they shouldn’t be), Newman’s value rises far beyond what WAR tracks. Newman stepped into the lead off position for the Pirates last year and performed better and more consistently than any lead off batter for the Pirates in a long time. Two statistics that stuck out to me were a low 11.7% strikeout rate and a solid .353 on-base percentage. Looking at Newman’s minor league numbers and taking into consideration that player’s typically improve in their second full season, both of these are sustainable.

In addition, Newman posted fantastic consistency throughout 2019, posting a .280+ BA and .310+ OBP every month – which is a relatively rare trait in among baseball players. All of this paired with the inevitable pressure to perform well with the continued and future promotions of Cole Tucker and Oneil Cruz should lead to a stellar season from Newman.

Team Cy Young – Joe Musgrove

This is an easy one for me. Joe Musgrove combines a relatively high ceiling with years of solid performances. Musgrove was virtually viewed as the team’s ace with Jameson Taillon’s early departure last season, and I believe he fully steps into that role this season. Musgrove’s 4.44 ERA is 2019 is relatively deceptive due to the Pittsburgh Pirates extremely poor defense. Because of this, FIP is a better metric (which takes fielding into consideration) and in 2018 and 2019 Musgrove posted solid FIPs of 3.59 and 3.82.

I would go even a step further and say that the pitching staff injuries, the catching woes, and the pitching staff drama of last season also had a negative effect on Musgrove’s metrics. Taking 2019 out of the picture, Musgrove has shown year to year improvements since joining the MLB. The eye-test also checks out positive for Musgrove.

Musgrove is a true five-pitch pitcher (fastball, cutter, change up, slider, and curveball) that has shown streaks where he completely dominates opposing teams. If the Pirates do not completely fall apart this season, I can see Musgrove post a respectable 3.40 ERA and go 7-3.

Rookie of the Year – Ke’Bryan Hayes

A few opposing forces will make 2020 an interesting season for rookies. With the shortened season, there will be less time for rookies to earn a promotion. On the other hand, rosters are one player larger at 26 instead of 25, teams may opt to give development time to star prospects if minor league teams fail to play games, and if players choose to or are forced to sit out, rookies may need to get promoted.

With all of that being said, I am putting my money on Ke’Bryan Hayes. Hayes may not have a starting job on day one, but, if healthy, he could make the Opening Day roster. Unless fellow third baseman Colin Moran is an absolute monster this year at the plate, Hayes will be the every day third baseman by the end of the season. Hayes is a heralded prospect in the Pirates system and across the MLB. Known for his world class defense and average to above-average bat, there is a lot to like.

Since Ben Cherington took over the front office of the Pittsburgh Pirates, the organization has made it a priority to solidify the Pirates’ abysmal defense. With the defensive skill difference between Hayes and Moran, I am sure Cherington will push to pivot to the rookie sooner rather than later.

Best Position Group – Bullpen

Even with the turmoil and unfortunate events that transpired at the end of 2019, the Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen remains extremely formidable. Keone Kela, Richard Rodriguez and Kyle Crick are all extremely solid arms that have posted recent seasons of sub-2.50 ERAs. All three of these pitchers have the ability to close games and perform at an elite level. In fact, drama free seasons from Kela and Crick would potentially lead to all-star level performances (sadly there is no All-Star Game this year).

Outside of the above three arms, the Pirates have a few relievers with massive upside. Nick Burdi has an insane spin rate on his slider and has flashed the ability to be an elite reliever. With a shot at a healthy season, Burdi will be throwing his hat in the ring of relievers competing for the job of closer in 2021.

Michael Feliz and Clay Holmes may not have the upside of Burdi, but both of these pitchers could put together solid seasons as back of the bullpen arms. Feliz had a solid half season with the Pirates last year posting a 3.99 ERA. No one doubts his ability to strike his batters out, but his control issues have always haunted him. Holmes falls into a similar category as Feliz, but has been burdened by even larger control issues.

Worst Position Group – Outfield

Sadly, there are multiple position groups that could be competing for the “worst position group” title in 2020. The starting rotation has many question marks with low upside, third base could prove to be disastrous offensively or defensively, and there is a chance that Pirate catchers combine for a batting average that barely surpasses .200. However, my main concerns are in the outfield. While a position like catcher can afford to be focused on defense first, most teams, and especially the Pirates, need offensive support from their outfielders.

We will start in right field. Gregory Polanco has been nothing but inconsistent over six seasons with the Pirates. Arguably, only one of his seasons has been above replacement level – 2018 when he hit 23 home runs and had a 123 wRC+. Since 2017, Polanco’s strikeout rate has increased from 14.6% to 21.9% to 29.3% in 2019. During this same stretch, his ISO has seen large fluctuations, he has posted below average defensive metrics, and has dealt with multiple injuries. No one doubts the upside, but ZiPs and other projection metrics are projecting another below average season.

All of that said, it remains to be seen if Polanco will be ready for Opening Day. He has not participated in any team activities the last three days, and no information on why he has not participated has been released.

In center field, a collection of players will be keeping the seat warm for 2021 or 2022 main stay Travis Swaggerty.  Jarrod Dyson and Guillermo Heredia are the two players that are most likely to man center field for the Pirates in 2020.

Dyson is the more experienced of the two players and is a defensive specialist. I have no doubt that Dyson will provide the Pirates with stellar defense, but Dyson has posted OPSs of .674, .539, and .633 over his last three seasons and posted below replacement level offensive WARs over that stretch. Heredia is truly Triple-A depth on most MLB rosters, never posting above a .700 OPS or .250 batting average in his four MLB seasons.

Bryan Reynolds may be the Pirates’ only hope in the outfield. Slashing .314/.377/.503 last season, he was a legitimate National League Rookie of the Year candidate. While I believe Reynolds is an outstanding player that will be in the Pirate outfield for many years to come, it would not surprise me if regression struck in 2020.

While I don’t agree with the stark regression being predicted by many website (due to Reynolds high BAbip in 2019 lining up with his minor league BAbips), I do think that a batting average of .290-.305 and a OPS of .800 is a bit more realistic. Even with a solid year from Reynolds though, the Pirate’s outfield will be far out-classed by the majority of their opponents.

Well there you have it – my 2020 Pittsburgh Pirate projections! Wait, actually, one last piece of business. I think a 32-28 record is what the Pittsburgh Pirates finish with this season. The new management and young blood of Reynolds, Newman, Hayes, and Tucker will boost the team’s spirits. I also think that the upgrades on defense and pitching staff make a noticeable difference in all the starters’ morale this season, leading to better numbers across the board.

Let’s Go Bucs!