Pittsburgh Pirates 2020 X-Factor: A Defensive Face Lift

Last year the Pittsburgh Pirates had one of the  worst defenses in the league. With a determined face lift though, the organization has the tools to be one of the league’s best defenses. Will this x-factor propel the Pirates to a successful 2020?

Even though there are a lot of reasons to be optimistic about the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2020, many fans may think that the Pirates defense is not one of them. In case you missed it, the Pirates were a hot mess on defense in 2019. No matter what website you look at or what set of statistics you pull, the Pirates were a bottom three defensive team last year. In fact, many statistics would argue that they were dead last. It is no surprise then that when new general manager Ben Cherington took over in the Pittsburgh Pirates front office he implied that improving the team’s defense would be a high priority.

But how realistic is it to think that the Pittsburgh Pirates can meaningfully improve their defense in only one off-season? Well let’s start by looking at specific players on the 2019 team and by focusing on one of my favorite defensive metrics, UZR/150.

UZR/150 attempts to do something very similar to wRC, but strictly for defense. The metric stands for Ulitmate Zone Rate per 150 Games.  In summary, this metric calculates how many runs a player would give up or save over the league average player at a position over 150 games. UZR takes into consideration a range of different metrics, including: the amount of runs a fielder saves with their arm, how efficient a fielder is a turning double plays, errors committed while fielder, among others.

A few final notes before we look at how the Pirates graded out in UZR/150. UZR/150 is a league average metric, meaning that a player with a UZR/150 of 0 is exactly league average at that position. UZR/150 does have some downside as it can be a bit funky with small sample sizes. It is actually recommended to look at multiple year’s worth of UZR data points for any given player to get a truly accurate reading. While some of my analysis will look at smaller sample sizes, the important take away will be the relative difference in one player’s defense over another player’s defense and a player’s potential at specific positions.

The Pittsburgh Pirates finished dead last in the MLB with a UZR/150 of -8.4 in 2019. The next closest team was the Orioles with a UZR/150 of -5.9. Below is a breakdown of every position in 2019 for the Pirates, with the player that played the most at that position.

Statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.

Let’s break this down some. First, there were some major positions of weakness in the Pirates defense. Starling Marte, Josh Bell, Colin Moran, Kevin Newman, and Melky Cabrera were each either the worst defensive player at their position last year, or extremely close to it.  On top of this, while catchers do not get UZR metrics, many other metrics showed that Elias Diaz was one of the worst defensive catchers in the league. There were a few bright spots though, Adam Frazier was a Gold Glove finalist last year and Jacob Stallings unexpectedly graded out as a fantastic defensive catcher.

Now let’s look at 2020’s projected defense (which seems to be changing almost every day).

Statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.

Let’s state the obvious, the UZR/150s for the players who are most likely to have the most plate appearances at the position for 2020 look considerably better than 2019. Jarrod Dyson, Ke’Bryan Hayes, and Jose Osuna are three major upgrades that the Pirates can take advantage of at center field, third base, and first base, respectively. Of course, this is contingent upon Hayes recovering the coronavirus and being able to join the team as soon as he is healthy.

Gregory Polanco, while not the best fielder, is an upgrade over Cabrera. Diaz was released by the Pirates and Stallings will be the primary catcher behind home plate. That accounts for five immediate positional improvements.

Returning to our list of players that under-performed defensively at their positions in 2019, there are two players that are unaccounted for, Reynolds and Newman. According to Reynolds prospect card, he rated out as a 45/50 FV fielder and a 40/40 FV arm talent. Newman rated out as a 40/45 FV fielder and a 50/50/ FV arm talent.

FV stands for Future Value and is a metric used to rate prospects with 50 being MLB average level talent and 80 being the upper limit. Typically, 80 is never used and is reserved for perennial all-star prospects. Right now, only one prospect, Wander Franco, has an overall 80 FV, and two prospect have overall FVs of 70. For comparison, Hayes is graded as 60/70 FV fielder and an overall 55 FV prospect. Hayes line would read that he is one standard deviation above the MLB average third baseman and two to four standard deviations above the average MLB third baseman in fielding. Cole Tucker grades out as a 50/55 fielder and a 70/70 arm.

Anyway, this is a really long way of saying that while Reynolds did not have the best season defensively, I think that he will end up being close to league average at fielding and will have a better season in 2020. As far as Newman goes, I think his UZI/150 is accurate for SS, but as we will discuss in a second, shortstop may not be Newman’s long term home.

Statistics courtesy of FanGraphs

The above chart takes into consideration some bench players and secondary positions for some potential starting players. This is especially useful since there will be extreme flux this year with which players are healthy and playing. Once again note that small sample sizes can lead to inaccurate UZR/150s, but they still give us a general idea of whether or not a player can be an above average defender at a position.

As expected, Newman grades out as a plus defender at second base, which is expected from a player who is slightly below average at shortstop. Tucker, meanwhile, is a plus defender at shortstop. While not shown above, Erik Gonzalez, also grades out as a plus defender at shortstop. A player we haven’t talked about yet, Guillermo Heredia, who figures to play right field while Polanco recovers, grades out as an exceptional defender over a very large sample size. Also, note that Frazier would be a decent option over Polanco, in terms of defense, in right field.

Now I am not naive. Obviously, the Pittsburgh Pirates may sacrifice some offensive prowess if they decide to focus solely on defense. But, unlike 2019, there is an opportunity for this team to be an average to elite defensive unit.

In fact, I would argue that the lineup as is, is already an above average defensive unit with the permanent additions of Stallings, Dyson, and Osuna. With very minor adjustments, specifically subbing Hayes in for Moran, moving Newman to second, and splitting right field between Frazier and Heredia, this team quickly becomes elite. A lineup of Newman (2B), Dyson (CF), Reynolds (LF), Bell (DH), Osuna (1B), Frazier (RF), Tucker (SS), Hayes (3B), Stallings (C)   contains only two negative UZR/150 players, Frazier at -0.6 UZR/150 and Reynolds whom we have discussed at length.

I am sure that both Cherington and manager Derek Shelton are aware of the defensive potential of this club. It will be interesting to see how much they prioritize the realization of that potential throughout this shortened season. It may be the stabilizing x-factor that the Pirates need to sneak their way into the post-season.

Let’s go Bucs!!!