Rum Bunter Staff 2020 Pittsburgh Pirates Predictions: Marty Leap

As the Rum Bunter staff continues their predictions for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2020, site co-expert Marty Leap takes his stab at the prediction game

The Pittsburgh Pirates are about to embark of their 2020 season. Without a doubt, the 2020 season will be unlike any other before it in the history of the Pittsburgh Baseball Club. Not only will the team be playing an abbreviated 60-game schedule, they will be attempting to do so in the middle of global viral pandemic.

In 2020, the Pittsburgh Pirates will also being breaking in a brand new coaching staff led by manager Derek Shelton and front office led by general manager Ben Cherington. Furthermore, it will be a rebuilding season that could see plenty of young players get an opportunity to flash what they can do.

Any season that will feature uncertainty is tough to predict, but nothing compares to the uncertainty surrounding the 2020 MLB season. That said, the staff here at Rum Bunter has still been doing our best to predict things such as the MVP, Cy Young, rookie of the year, breakout player, and team record, among other things, for the 2020 Pittsburgh Pirates. Now it’s my turn to join in the shenanigans!

Other Staff Previews:

• Noah Wright
• Stephen Strosko

2020 Pirate MVP – Bryan Reynolds

With how well he performed as a rookie in 2019 it may sound odd, but many people truly do not appreciate how good of a player Bryan Reynolds is. Yes, trading away Andrew McCutchen hurt. However, getting Reynolds in that deal made the trade more than worth it.

As a rookie, Reynolds accumulated 546 plate appearances in 134 games. He hit for a healthy .314/.377/.503 slash line to go with a 131 wRC+, .189 ISO, 8.4% walk rate, and an 11.6% extra base hit rate. This extra base hit rate included a Pirate rookie record 37 doubles. When it was all said and done, the Pirate left fielder owned a 3.2 fWAR.

Reynolds was such a pure hitter in 2019, and it was a joy to watch. He recorded hard contact 40.2% of the time and his average exit velocity was 89.5 MPH, both of which were above league average. He also hit the ball to all fields pulling the ball 38.6% of the time, going to center field 35.1% of the time and recording opposite field hits at a 26.3% rate.

Despite being an average defender in left field, Reynolds easily projects as a 4+ WAR player over the course of a full 162 game season. Unfortunately, fans of the Pittsburgh Pirates will have to wait until 2021 to enjoy their first full 162 game season from Reynolds, who will be the team’s MVP in 2020.

2020 Pirate Cy Young – Joe Musgrove

With the amount of question marks surrounding the pitching staff for the Pittsburgh Pirates, this was not the easiest of choices. But, the favorite would appear to be the man who will take the ball on Opening Day for the Bucs – Joe Musgrove.

With injuries to Jameson Taillon and Chris Archer, Musgrove enters 2020 as the team’s number one starting pitcher.  While Mitch Keller will look to change this during the course of the season, to start the season at least Musgrove is the guy.

Musgrove is coming off a 2019 season in which he set a career high in appearances (32), starts (31), innings pitched (170.1), strikeout rate (21.9%), and 3.3 fWAR. While his 4.44 ERA was not the best, 3.82 FIP painted a better picture. His Deserved Run Average of 3.59 also painted an optimistic picture.

In his final seven starts, Musgrove appeared to be taking a step forward. Leaning on his slider more as you would expect him to do in 2020, he posted a 3.57 ERA, 2.69 FIP, 4.2% walk rate, 25.4% strikeout rate, and allowing just three home runs in 40.1 innings of work.

Has Musgrove started to turn a corner? It looks possible. If he has, he will be the Pirate Cy Young in 2020.

2020 Pirate Rookie of the Year – Nick Burdi

For a second consecutive season I am going with reliever Nick Burdi as my pick for rookie of the year. Had he not contracted the coronaviurs causing him to miss the start of the season, my pick would likely be Ke’Bryan Hayes. But with Hayes set to miss the start of the season, Burdi gets the nod for a second consecutive season.

Last season, Burdi only logged 8.2 innings before a nerve issue abruptly ended his season. In these 8.2 innings of work, he struck out 17 batters while flashing a power fastball and a wipe out slider.

Still possessing rookie status due to time missed, as well as Rule 5 status, this will be Burdi’s year. His fastball averaged 96.9 MPH last season, and routinely touches 100 MPH. His slider, which averaged 87.8 MPH, generated swings-and-misses at a strong 49% rate.

With the fate of Keone Kela to start the season up in the air, the Pittsburgh Pirates find themselves in need of a closer. While closer should never be considered a position, if the Pirates are going to use one it should be Burdi.

The Pirate bullpen could be a real adventure in 2020. But the one pitcher that appears capable of being a reliable reliever throughout the season for the Bucs is Burdi.

2020 Pirate breakout player – Jacob Stallings

For some reason, many fans of the Pittsburgh Pirates fail to realize how good Jacob Stallings was in 2019. While his .262/.325/.382 slash line and 82 wRC+ are nothing to write home about, they are not terrible for a catcher, either.

But where Stallings shined in 2019 was behind the dish. He was responsible for a +14 DRS and he was responsible for 6.0 framing runs saved. Additionally, 50.5% of the pitches he received went for strikes, which is a huge testament to his pitch framing. In fact, according to Baseball Savant, he ranked 16th in the MLB in pitch framing. His defense is why he was worth 1.3 fWAR in just 79 games played, this comes out to being a 3 WAR catcher over the course of a full season.

Stallings is primed for a big season in 2020. His defense will only continue to improve, and there is reason to believe his offense will improve. His 35.8% hard contact rate and 89.2 MPH average exit velocity in 2019 were both better than league average. If he does this again in 2020, his offensive output will improve.

Fans may not respect Stallings now, but when the 2020 season ends he will be viewed as one of the best catchers in the National League.

Best position group in 2020 – the outfield

Well, unfortunately, this one was a tough call. Any time determining a team’s best position group for a season, that is never a good thing. In the end, we’ll go with the outfield here.

In left field, the Pittsburgh Pirates have Reynolds who is one of the best hitters in baseball. Center field will be manned by Jarrod Dyson. While Dyson is a below average hitter, he is one of the best defensive center fielders in all of baseball. While right field will be Guillermo Heredia to start the season, Gregory Polanco should be in right field before long.

Even with Heredia in right field, the Pirates are in great hands defensively. Other than Dyson, Heredia is the best defensive outfielder on the team and one of the best in the National League. He’s also flashed a good bat in exhibition play, including a home run.

When Polanco returns, the Pittsburgh Pirates will be gaining a 25-30 home run hitter when healthy. Polanco looked as healthy as ever in spring training and summer camp and was crushing the ball accordingly. When healthy in 2016 and 2018, Polanco posted a 106 and 123 wRC+. Once he is cleared to return from the coronavirus, he looks primed to put together this type of season.

The bats of Reynolds and Polanco, combined with the gloves of Dyson and Heredia will make the Pirate outfield a strong group.

Worst position group in 2020 – the bullpen

While the best position group was a tough decision make, the worst position group is not. That is because it appears the Pittsburgh Pirates will have a hot mess of a bullpen during the 2020 season.

Entering the season the team’s two most proven, reliable relievers were Keone Kela and Edgar Santana. Well, Kela has not worked out with the team at all during summer camp and is one the 10-day injured list while Santana will miss the season due to an 80-game PED suspension. These are two big blows to the bullpen.

Nick Burdi appears to have endless potential at the back end of the bullpen, but he needs to prove he can stay healthy. After outstanding 2018 seasons, Kyle Crick saw his walk rate spike to 15.5% in 2019 and Richard Rodriguez saw his home run rate grow to nearly 2.0 HR/9. Neither pitcher pitched well in the Grapefruit League or in exhibition games against the Indians, making their 2018 seasons look like flash in the pan type seasons.

Clay Holmes and Michael Feliz both have quality stuff, but neither have found consistent success at the MLB level. Chris Stratton, like Holmes and Feliz, has the stuff, but not the track record. Geoff Hartlieb had an ERA of 9.00 and a FIP of 5.56 last season, and Dovydas Neverauskas owns a career 6.71 ERA and 5.99 FIP. Robbie Erlin was a minor league free agent signing for a reason, and JT Brubaker has never pitched at the MLB level. Oh, and top relief prospect Blake Cederlind has the coronavirus.

Did I miss anything?

Last season the Pittsburgh Pirates went to battle with a bullpen that finished 21st in the Majors in home run rate (1.47 HR/9), 22nd n FIP (4.80), 23rd in ERA (4.91), 25th in fWAR (0.6), and 27th in walk rate 10.9%. The only thing that has changed between last year’s bullpen and this year’s is the loss of Kela, as well as a former dominant closer who is now in prison. So, two moves that make the bullpen worse.

When Shelton goes to the bullpen this season… grab the rosaries, take your heart pills, chug some whiskey, say a prayer, and buckle up, because it’s going to be a bumpy ride.

How will the Pittsburgh Pirates finish?

The Pittsburgh Pirates are probably not as bad as a lot of fans think they are. That said, this team is very much so rebuilding and the 2020 season should include plenty of ups and downs, highs and lows, and hair pulling out moments.

In a 60 game season one or two hot streaks will be a enough for any team to compete in 2020. Do the Pirates have one or two hot stretches in them? We will have to wait and see. It is tough to envision it due to the pitching staff, especially the bullpen, but, hey, it’s baseball, anything can happen.

The top of the Pirate line up, especially once Polanco returns, can be strong. But after the fifth or sixth spot in the line up, it goes off a cliff. The starting rotation has potential, but there are a ton of question marks. The bullpen, as we have covered, might be an epic dumpster fire. All of that is the recipe for a rocky, interesting season for any baseball team.

When the dust settles, 26-34 is what I am projecting for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2020. Agree? Disagree? Sound off in the comments below!