Pittsburgh Pirates: Three Prospects Running Out of Time

Utility Man Kevin Kramer

The Pittsburgh Pirates selected Kevin Kramer in the second-round of the 2015 draft, but he has yet to breakout into an MLB capable player. The UCLA product played his first full professional season in 2016 at High-A where he batted a solid .277/.352/.378 with a 12.3% strikeout rate, and 116 wRC+.

Although not a big power threat, Kramer was seen to have an above average hit tool, a decent, but not overwhelmingly fast base runner, and solid fielder with a weak arm. Kramer played second base in all of 2016, but had seen a little bit of time at shortstop in his professional debut season a year prior.

In 2017, Kramer would miss most of the year, only playing in 57 games and receiving 251 plate appearances because of a hand fracture. The lefty batter further built up his prospect stock as when he was healthy, hit .290/.371/.479 with 17 doubles, three home runs, stealing eight bases, and having a 141 wRC+ in Double-A. He played across three different levels in 2017, but most of his playing time came from Altoona where 234 of his 251 plate appearances came from.

By now, Kramer was seriously making a name for himself in the Pirates’ minor league system. He entered 2018 as the team’s 9th best prospect per MLB Pipeline. Kramer would only get better as in 2018, the middle infielder batted .311/.365/.492 with 15 long balls, 35 doubles, 13 stolen bases, and a 141 wRC+ through 527 plate appearances at Triple-A.

Although his strikeout rate nearly doubled from 2016, now sitting at 24.1%, Kramer would end the year as the Pirates’ 7th best prospect. He did receive a few MLB plate appearances in the Majors, but struggled in the small sample size of 40. Plus he also saw some time in left field, further widening his versatility.

But going into 2019, Kramer would see his value fall a decent amount. He followed up his outstanding 2018 Triple-A season with a subpar season at the same minor league level. This time through 448 plate appearances, Kramer hit just .260/.335/.417 with 10 home runs, and 30 doubles. All coming to a 92 wRC+. Kramer’s future with the Pittsburgh Pirates is now in serious limbo.

Not only has the awful season at Triple-A really brought down his value, but he has also struggled at the major league level. Although he has only 90 MLB plate appearances under his belt, Kramer is hitting for a .387 OPS and 7 OPS+. While I don’t think he’d hit that way for an entire season, and below average offense is passable for a super-utility guy, Kramer doesn’t really provide all that much defensive value. FanGraphs only gives him a 45 future fielding grade with a 50 future throwing grade. He also isn’t an asset on the base paths either with a 40 current and future run grade and a sprint speed in the bottom 31st percentile of baseball.

Kramer’s primary position of second base has many other prospects blocking him now. Many of the Pirates’ current shortstop prospects like Ji-Hwan Bae, Liover Peguero, and Nick Gonzalez could move over to second base to accommodate each other. Plus, with third base taken by Ke’Bryan Hayes, and Kramer is left positionless. Now he’ll miss any chance at playing in 2020 because of hip surgery. Kramer could eventually become a solid utility man somewhere, but he needs to improve his defense dramatically to do so.

Outfielder Jason Martin

The Pirates acquired Jason Martin in the Gerrit Cole trade along with Joe Musgrove and Michael Feliz. Martin, at the time, had risen through the Astros’ system showing a strong combination of power and speed. Drafted in the 8th round of the 2013 MLB draft, Martin really broke out in 2016. Through 416 plate appearances at the Astros’ High-A level affiliate, the lefty batter hit .270/.357/.533 with 23 home runs and 20 stolen bases. All told, he had a 134 wRC+ and .386 wOBA. Although not that much of a fielder, Martin did show a decent amount of potential with the bat, and on the basepaths.

Martin followed up his 2016 season with solid 2017 season. He split the season between Double-A and High-A ball, and batted .278/.332/.487 with 18 home runs and 16 stolen bases. Martin did see his plate discipline take a pretty big hit though. After walking 12% of the time in ‘16, he recorded a walk rate of just 7.5%. Still, he came in with a 136 wRC+ at High-A and 121 wRC+ at Double-A.

After the trade to the Pittsburgh Pirates, Martin started out the 2018 season on a strong note. His first 289 plate appearances at Double-A saw him hit for an outstanding .325/.392/.522 line, hitting 9 home runs, and recording a 152 wRC+. He did see his walk rate go up a bit, now at 9.2%. But the outstanding output at the plate didn’t carry over when he was moved to Triple-A. In his last 234 plate appearances of the year, Martin only hit .211/.270/.319 with a 65 wRC+. His walk rate dipped back down to it’s 2017 levels, now at 7.3%.

Although Martin didn’t continue to struggle in 2019 as bad as he did at Triple-A as to 2018, he still wasn’t all that great. Through 406 plate appearances, Martin had a .259/.312/.419 line, all coming to a 83 wRC+. He also made his major league debut in 2019, but only had 9 hits, 4 walks, and 10 strikeouts in 40 plate appearances.

Martin was originally not amount the players working out in Pittsburgh during summer camp. However, thanks to Gregory Polanco battling COVID-19, he was able to crack the opening day roster for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Martin only has an average future grade of 50 for his hit, and raw power tools. Defensively, FanGraphs puts him at a future of 50, and the same for his throwing grade. He only had -3 DRS, -0.3 range runs above average, -1 outfield arm runs above average, and -1.4 UZR in his short major league stint last year.

He does provide some value as a base runner as he ranks in the top 76th percentile of sprint speed, but now with fellow 2017-2018 off season acquisition Bryan Reynolds, top prospects Jared Oliva, and Travis Swaggerty, the Pirates needing to find a place for Oneil Cruz, which will probably be right field, along with Jarod Dyson and Gregory Polanco on the 60-man, Martin doesn’t have a really good shot at regular playing time, even if an injury occurs. Though he may never be nothing more than a fourth outfielder, his poor defense, combined with his uninspiring numbers at Triple-A put that into question as well.

First Baseman Will Craig

Will Craig was drafted in the 1st round out of Wake Forest by the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2016. He’s shown flashes of what he could be, but has yet to put it all together. Though he was drafted as a power hitting third base prospect, Craig was moved over to first base, but didn’t show much power in his first two professional seasons.

Between 2016 and 2017, Craig had a solid .273 batting average, .386 on-base percentage, 12.6% walk rate, and 17.5% strikeout rate. But he totaled just eight home runs, 38 doubles, and one triple, all coming to a weak .355 slugging percentage and isolated slugging percentage of just .082. By the end of 2017, Craig ranked as the team’s 9th best prospect per MLB Pipeline, and by FanGraphs as well. In 2017, Craig’s first full pro season, he had a 123 wRC+.

After being moved up to Double-A, Craig did see a rise in power. Through 549 plate appearances, he hit 30 doubles, 20 home runs, had a much better .448 slugging percentage and .200 isolated slugging percentage. Impressively, he brought his ground ball percentage all the way from 45.8% in 2017 to just 29.7% the following season.

Just for reference, the MLB average in 2018 was 43%. But both his batting average, on base percentage and plate discipline went in the wrong directions. Craig got a lot more swing happy, striking out 23.3% of the time, and walking just 7.7% of the time. His batting average dropped to .248. Craig got a lot more pull happy to, as his pull percentage rose from 41% in 2017 to 47.3% in 2018. But it was still an overall decent season as Craig posted a 110 wRC+.  He also showed a clutch factor. Despite striking out 58 times with runners in scoring position, he had a .270 average and .497 slugging percentage.

But 2019 has so far been the worst year of Craig’s career. Craig saw his strikeout rate rise to 26.3%, while his walk rate remained at a weak 7.9%. His batting average also remained relatively the same to 2018, but his power took a major hit. Craig only hit 23 home runs and doubles, coming to a .435 slugging percentage and .183 isolated slugging, not very good numbers for a league that saw 55 players have at least 300 plate appearances and a .450 or higher slugging percentage.

Although he still had a strong ground ball rate, it rose to 36.8%. Part of Craig’s struggles have been because he has become very predictable. Craig pulled the ball 51.4% of the time while going the opposite way just 26.7% of the time. This is the first time his opposite field percentage has dropped below 30. After showing some pretty good numbers with RISP, did walk more with RISP, but saw his batting average drop to .257 and slugging drop to .421.

Craig still has solid power grades with a future 55 raw and game power grade. Since arriving on the scene, Craig has always been given good reviews for his arm strength and has a 60 current/future throw grade. With such a strong arm, the Pirates tried Craig out in right field, but lacks the range to play an outfield spot with just a speed grade of 30. Since he was a two-way prospect in college, and still possessing a strong arm, I’ve previously discussed the possibility of making him a two way prospect, which if the Pittsburgh Pirates want to try anything out of the ordinary, this is the year to do it. Defensively, he grades out as an overall average to above average first baseman.

MLB Pipeline now has Will as the team’s 19th best prospect, but many other sources like FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, do not list him in their top 20, with FanGraphs leaving him out of their top 50. Craig has since been passed by Mason Martin on prospect charts, and could soon be passed by Alexander Mojica. First base in the major leagues is a really, really deep position. Many batters can do what Craig does at the major league level, and then some as 29 first basemen finished with a wRC+ of at least 95 in 300 or more plate appearances. Craig might get a shot at some playing time in 2020 with Josh Bell and Colin Moran seeing time at DH this year, but it will still be a challenge for Craig as he was not one of the players who worked out at PNC Park during summer camp.