Pittsburgh Pirates: Projecting a Potential 2023 Starting Rotation

The Pittsburgh Pirates farm system is quickly becoming one of the deepest in baseball. In terms of pitching, they have a lot of future options. So what could that starting five look like in a couple of years?

Any team that looks to compete usually has a strong starting five. The Pittsburgh Pirates back in 2013 to 2015 had some really strong rotations.

In 2013, Francisco Liriano, Gerrit Cole and A.J. Burnett, along with solid seasons from Charlie Morton and Jeff Locke led the Pittsburgh Pirates to the playoffs in the first time in 20 years. The same trio, plus J.A. Happ and Morton again, also helped the team make the playoffs again two years later. In 2014, the Pirates’ rotation might have been one of the more underrated parts of their game that year with unsung heroes like Vance Worley, and Edinson Volquez leading the way.

In a few years, the Bucs will probably be back in competition. Ben Cherington has built up a farm system that, according to FanGraphs, currently ranks 6th in baseball, but started the year at the 5th spot.

The team has a handful of starting pitching prospects who could be part of that starting five. Recently, I went over what the line-up could look like in 2023, but what could the rotation look like in the same year?

Mitch Keller

2023 Opening Day Age: 27

The first and foremost is Mitch Keller. Keller has now graduated prospect status, but started out the 2020 season as baseball’s 34th best prospect according to FanGraphs. Currently he’s probably the safest bet on who will become the team’s best starter when the Pittsburgh Pirates re-enter contention.

Keller had a solid showing in 2019. Despite his 7.19 ERA, the now 24-year-old right hander had a 3.19 FIP, 3.47 xFIP and 3.78 SIERA. He also struck out 28.6% of the batters he faced and walked only 7%. In the Majors, he also showed some really good movement with his curveball and slider. His slider is probably his best pitch with a 60 current/future grade, and had 35.9/4.1 inches of vertical and horizontal movement in 2019.

His curveball has elite drop with 56.9 inches, and 9.2 inches of horizontal movement. It and his mid-90’s fastball have a 55 future/current grade. Although his change-up is his weakest pitch, he did show a decent amount of improvement with it through his limited amount of innings in 2020.

Keller was also probably the best pitcher at Triple-A last season as he led the league in FIP (3.60), xFIP (3.87), strikeout rate (28.2%), HR/9 (0.78), was third in WHIP (1.24), and ERA (3.56) in at least 100 innings pitched..

Though Keller didn’t get off to the hottest of starts this season. But so have a lot of other good pitchers likely because of the lack of spring training and overall weirdness of the 2020 season. Plus he was recently placed on the injured list. Regardless, Keller still holds a lot of value with three pitches that are considered above average, and has the best shot at becoming the team’s next ace.

Tahnaj Thomas

2023 Opening Day Age: 24

The Pittsburgh Pirates have another top 100 pitching prospect according to FanGraphs. That prospect is Tahnaj Thomas. The Pirates had acquired Thomas alongside Erik Gonzalez in the 2018-2019 off season.

Thomas was great at Rookie Ball last season. Through 48.1 innings of work, Thomas had a 3.17 ERA, 3.67 FIP and 3.47 xFIP. The 21 year old has some really impressive strikeout numbers with a 29.5% strikeout rate and 11.00 K/9.

Thomas has a big fastball. He usually sits in the high-90s, but can crack back and get it into the triple digits. What’s even more impressive is that he can put an above average spin rate on it at 2300 RPM. But even though he can throw so hard, his control didn’t suffer. He allowed walks at a strong 7% and 2.61 BB/9 clip. To go with that he had a solid 0.93 HR/9 and 40.5% ground ball rate.

Along with his blazing fastball, Thomas throws a curveball that has a future of 60, which makes it one of the best curveballs in the Pirates’ farm system. His change up currently only has a 50 future grade, but it rounds out a solid three pitch mix. While two well above average pitches and a third average pitch makes for a solid combination Thomas still has time to develop a fourth pitch like a slider.

Cody Bolton

Opening Day Age: 25

One prospect that we probably will see in the next year or so is Cody Bolton. Though not as high of a ranking prospect as Keller, Thomas, or Malone, Bolton still ranks as the team’s 10th best prospect. Plus if he keeps putting up numbers like he did at High-A ball last season, he’ll quickly be a top-5 organizational prospect and potentially be knocking on the door of being a top 100.

Bolton was better than outstanding at Bradenton in 2019. Through 61.1 innings, Bolton had a 1.61 ERA, 1.91 FIP and a sparkling 0.86 WHIP. He struck out 28.9% of the batters he faced, had a 5.9% walk rate and allowed just one long ball. One long ball in an era of baseball where the homer is king is very impressive.

However, when he was moved to Double-A, the prospect struggled. Through the 40 innings at Altoona, Bolton had a 5.85 ERA, 4.67 FIP and 1.32 WHIP. But it isn’t uncommon for pitchers to struggle when they’re moved to the next level of ball. Keller also struggled when he was moved to Triple-A in 2018, and I’m sure you could find many other examples of really good pitchers struggling when they get promoted to the next level of the minors.

Regardless, Bolton has two above average pitches, that being his fastball with a 55 future and current grade Though not a blazing fast pitch like Thomas’ fastball, Bolton can still get it into the high-90’s when he needs to.

According to FanGraphs, it usually sits in the 92-95 range. What’s more impressive is the amount of spin he can put on it. It was clocked with 2450 RPM, which in comparison to the 2019 MLB average that was in the low-2000’s, it’s a pitch that will get a lot of swings and misses. His slider comes in with a 55 current and 60 future grade, and it’s the best slider out of any starting pitching prospect the Pittsburgh Pirates currently have in their system. He also has a solid third pitch, that being a change-up with a 50 future grade. That gives this young right hander three average or better pitches.

Quinn Priester

2023 Opening Day Age: 22

Right handed pitcher Quinn Priester was another top prep arm, and was selected by the Pittsburgh Pirates as the 18th pick in the 2019 draft. Currently, FanGraphs pins him as the team’s 7th best prospect, and the 135th best prospect in baseball. That just outranks the aforementioned Malone.

Priester is only 19, so it’ll be a few years until we see him in the majors, but it won’t be nearly as long until we might see him on some top 100 boards. Last year, Priester only pitched 36.2 professional innings, but was quite effective at Rookie Ball and Low-A. All told, he had a 3.19 ERA, 2.83 FIP and 1.22 WHIP. The most impressive part of Priester’s game was his ability to limit home runs. He only gave up 1 home run, and through 32.2 innings at Rookie Ball, had a 55.4% ground ball rate. In today’s game with everyone going for the home run, having a guy who can suppress those is really valuable.

Priester has three pitches, all of which are above average. His fastball has a 50 current and 60 future grade. In terms of velocity, it’s very similar to Bolton’s sitting in the 92-95 range, and maxing out in the higher-90’s. It just has less spin. Priester’s next best pitch is his curveball with a 55 future grade. His change up also has a 55 future grade.

Carmen Mlodzinski

2023 Opening Day Age: 24

The Pittsburgh Pirates selected right hander Carmen Mlodzinski out of the University of South Carolina. Mlodzinski doesn’t have the best college numbers with a 4.74 ERA, 4.06 FIP and 1.53 WHIP through 81.2 innings at the NCAA level, but he did end his college career on a good note. In 2019 in the Cape Cod league, Mlodzinski had a 2.15 ERA, a minuscule 1.69 FIP, and  0.65 WHIP through 29.1 innings. In his final year at college, the right hander had a 2.84 ERA, 3.91 FIP and 1.30 WHIP in 25.1 innings.

Mlodzinski works with three pitches. His best is his fastball. It sits in the 93-97 range, but tops out at 98 MPH. It currently has a 55 grade, but a future of 60. Mlodzinski also throws a plus slider. It sits in the low-80’s and has a 50 current/future grade. According to MLB Pipeline, it sometimes has cutter-like action. His sinking change up is also a solid pitch. Though it only has a 45 future grade, many think he could develop all three into above average pitches.

Mlodzinski is still a very raw talent. But Ben Cherington has a very good eye for talent. He wouldn’t have picked Mlodzinski when he did if he didn’t think he would be a good selection. Despite his overall lackluster stats, the young right hander could be a very talented starter in a few years.

Other Notable Names

The Pittsburgh Pirates have so many more starting pitching prospects. They could add even more talented arms like Kumar Rocker, Brady House or Jack Leiter if they get a really high draft pick in 2021 like they’re on pace to.

There will be a handful of interesting free agents the Pirates might pursue and the team has stated before they might explore contract extension with current players. Let’s also not forget that they could get some interesting prospects back in trades involving their biggest trade pieces like Adam Frazier and Josh Bell. But for now, let’s go over four other names that might stand out as other potential rotation arms in a couple of seasons.

Logan Hofmann

2023 Opening Day Age: 23

One of the more under the radar selections the Pirates’ made was when they selected right handed pitcher Logan Hofmann out of Northwestern State University of Louisiana. But despite being selected in the 5th and final round of the 2020 draft, Hofmann might be one of, if not the most talented pitchers the Pirates selected this year. In his first year at the NCAA level, Hofmann had tossed 28 innings, allowed 14 hits, just 5 walks, struck out 28 of the 105 batters he faced, and allowed no earned runs. He had a 0.00 ERA. There’s not much scouting report to go off of, but based on numbers alone, Hofmann might end up being the best pitcher of the Pirates’ 2020 draft class.

JT Brubaker

2023 Opening Day Age: 29

JT Brubaker made his long awaited debut this year. The right hander has so far shown fantastic swing and miss stuff. So far, he has a 36.4% swing and miss percentage of pitches outside of the zone. In 2019, the league average was just 32%. He also sits in the top 95th percentile of whiff rate. His fastball, slider and curveball all have average or better grades by FanGraphs, and all have above average spin rates. Brubaker at the Triple-A level has a 3.02 ERA, 1.286 WHIP, and 3.43 FIP through 140 innings all as a starting pitcher. However, he showed really good stuff as a relief pitcher as well in the major leagues. His role could really be decided depending on how other arms in the system pan out.

Steven Jennings

2023 Opening Day Age: 24

Now, Steven Jennings isn’t really all that flashy of a prospect, nor high ranking. He only comes in as the team’s 26th best prospect. He’s a control specialist who only throws in the high-80s, low-90s. He’s a control specialist who will rack up innings. But what makes this right hander really interesting is the fact he has so much spin on his pitches. His fastball clocks in with 2500 RPM. That would already place him at or around the 95th percentile in all of baseball in 2019. But his breaking pitches have an RPM of 3000, which would place him with the elite of the elite in terms of spin rate there as well. Any pitcher with that much spin on their fastball and slider will get some attention.

Santiago Florez

2023 Opening Day Age: 23

Santiago Florez is another spin rate darling. The Colombian born product has a 2400 RPM on his fastball, and 2800 RPM on his curveball. Florez is the team’s 19th best prospect according to FanGraphs. So far, the results haven’t been all that great. Through 138.1 innings across three different levels of pro ball, Florez has a 4.10 ERA, 4.32 FIP and 1.42 WHIP. He’s only given up 6 home runs for a .4 HR/9, but walks and control have been a massive issue for the right hander.

He currently has a 13.3% walk rate and 5.8 BB/9 to go against a strikeout rate of just 16.4% and 6.6 per 9. Last year, he had a 3.46 ERA, but 5.10 FIP at Rookie Ball Bristol because of his sub-par strikeout rate, poor walk rate and the highest HR/9 of his career.

Florez has three pitches. His fastball sits in the 92-94 range, and has a future grade of 60. His curveball also has a 60 future grade, and a lot of spin. Florez’s change up is another pitch that grades out at average at 50. Overall, if Florez can just control the walks, he might be one of the more intriguing prospects in the Pirates’ system, and become a solid starter.