Pittsburgh Pirates: Other Top College Names in 2021 Draft

Jack Leiter, Right-Handed Pitcher, Vanderbilt University

I said Kumar Rocker was one of Vanderbilt’s aces, that is because Jack Leiter is the other.  Like Rocker in 2018, Leiter could have been a first-round pick in 2019.  Instead, he once again made a strong commitment to be known and went to Vandy.  Next year he will be a draft-eligible sophomore.

Interestingly enough Leiter has actually surpassed Rocker on FanGraphs’ 2021 Draft Board rankings.  There are multiple reasons why; there are some questions about Rocker, meaning he is not necessarily a consensus number one pick.  One thing that is playing in Leiter’s favor is his age and pedigree.  First off, Leiter is about a half-year younger than Rocker, which in baseball currency matters.  Secondly, he is the son of World Series Champion Al Leiter, giving him that extra tool of growing up around the game which is valued to an extent as well.

Overall, Leiter does not have the frame one would expect in a number one overall pick.  He stands at 6’1” and only weighs around 200 pounds.  Still, 6’1” is not a terrible height and should not limit him much on the mound.  Overall, his value lies in his pitches.  Here is a little blurb from FanGraphs on his two best pitches:

At his best, Leiter was up to 98 mph and spotting a plus curveball with enough command to draw whiffs, but other times would be in the low-90’s with below average command. He’s sophomore eligible by age in 2021.

One thing is that in today’s game it is more about the pitches than it is about the pitcher.  So Leiter may not have the big build that traditional starters have, but he has two plus pitches that also have plus spin rates.  This spring he added a slider to his arsenal, something that most MLB teams want, and it is starting to show chances of being a plus pitch.  If that pitch shows progress into next spring and his command improves, Leiter could make a case for being the top pick.  If not, he will surely be off the board at number two or three.

Jud Fabian, Outfielder, University of Florida

You may not find Jud Fabian in any top five lists just yet, but he could be a prospect that rises up draft boards.  Although he is considered to be a top 10 pick right now, one thing is for sure, he is definitely a prospect that Ben Cherington and Steve Sanders like to draft.

Like Leiter, Fabian is one of the youngest college players in the draft.  He is actually the youngest college player ranked inside FanGraphs’ Top 10 right now as he will not turn 21 until after the 2021 draft.  This is something that always interests teams, a young player means more time to develop.  In general, this Front Office’s past suggests that they value younger draft prospects.

The second thing the Front Office seems to value are players who perform well in the Cape Cod League.  This makes sense as it’s basically a college All-Star league, but also the league makes the player use wooden bats.  Generally speaking, if a team is looking for numbers that will translate the best, the Cape is a good source of reference.

Fabian tore up the Cape Cod league at a very young age.  Because it is a summer league he only received 40 at-bats but hit .325 with three doubles and a home run.  He came out this spring relatively hot, posting an OPS just north of 1.000 and he hit five home runs in just 17 games.  Last year he hit seven in 57 games, so the power is starting to develop.

This makes sense as Fabian stands at 6’2” and weighs around 190 pounds.  Fabian has put up strong numbers at a very young age at the NCAA level and in the Cape Cod League.  Put his track record along with his projectability and his youth, and Fabian is a very intriguing prospect.  If he gets off to a strong start next spring look for him to climb the top 10 very quickly.

Jaden Hill, Right-Handed Pitcher, LSU

If the Pittsburgh Pirates are looking for a big starter but miss out on Kumar Rocker, Jaden Hill also fits the bill.  The LSU Tiger could be right in the conversation with Rocker and Leiter if he would have had a spring season this year.  Hill stands at 6’4” and weighs around 215 pounds, which unlike Rocker, gives him room to fill into.  Some teams may actually prefer this for development reasons, with concerns that Rocker does not really have any room to grow.

Hill got off to a great start with the Tigers as a freshmen.  He was the team’s best starter out of the gate pitching to a 1.80 ERA through his first two starts.  However, he was then shut down due to a strain in his UCL.  This is obviously the other concern with Hill.

UCL strains are never a good thing.  Usually, it suggests a pitcher is more prone to Tommy-John surgery eventually.  However, in today’s game, as the Pittsburgh Pirates are currently seeing, it is near impossible to predict who will or will not need Tommy-John eventually.

Hill bounced back with a strong spring before things were shut down.  He made four appearances, throwing 11.2 innings while not allowing a run and striking out 17.  Obviously he has big-time swing and miss stuff.  The swing and miss stuff is led by his fastball which has been clocked as high as 98 miles per hour this year.

Like Fabian, Hill will rely on having a spring baseball season.  He will need to come out and prove he is healthy.  Also, this past spring he did walk five batters, so command may be something to watch for Hill.  However, if he comes out and stays healthy for the season there is no reason Hill cannot position himself to be a potential top five pick as well.

For the Bucs, he would make sense.  He has top of the rotation type stuff and has the frame that any would want in a potential ace.  Hill was also a two-sport athlete coming out of high school.  This is something the new regime seemed to focus on in Toronto, selecting highly athletic players.  Hill also has only thrown a total of 21.2 NCAA innings, which while this could be concerning for scouting purposes, Cherington seemed to focus on drafting pitchers who had low mileage on their arms.  This past draft, the club took Carmen Mlodzinski with a history of missed time, so they could like that about Hill as well.

Overall these are likely the top college players that Ben Cherington will likely have his eyes on.  There are a few other college bats that could be in play such as Matt McLain of UCLA or Alex Binelas of Louisville, but after taking an infielder with their top pick in 2020 another would seem unlikely.

The same would go for Florida State outfielder Robby Martin, who has a plus bat but is already projected as a right-fielder.  This is something that Cherington normally stays away from, as he likes to take athletes up the middle.  If they were going to go outfielder, the younger and more athletic Fabian would make more sense.

I only looked at the college players because that is most likely what Ben Cherington would like to do with a top three pick next year.  College players are a lot easier to scout, find information on, and are just easier to project and therefore are safer picks when drafting that high. Just look at this past year’s draft, five college players to one prep player.  Combine that with the number of plus college players in the draft and it would be shocking for the Front Office to go toward a prep player.