Pittsburgh Pirates: Other Top College Names in 2021 Draft

The Pittsburgh Pirates are most definitely going to end up with one of the top picks in the 2021 MLB Draft.  So who are some to pay attention too?

One thing that has come out of the Pittsburgh Pirates 2020 season so far is that there are some fans understanding where this team stands.  They know that the current roster is devoid of talent due to the previous regime.  Furthermore, this is not something that can be fixed overnight and the main way for a team like the Pittsburgh Pirates to fix it is through drafting and developing.

Enter Ben Cherington and Steve Sanders.  Cherington and Sanders were both hired away from the Toronto Blue Jays organization where they focused on the draft and player development.  Cherington has rebuilt the Red Sox farm system and the Toronto Blue Jays system through targeting the right players in the draft and having the right pieces in place to develop them.

The new Front office got off to a really strong start in terms of drafting with this year’s draft class. Their class overall was ranked in the top five by most publications.  Furthermore, they landed an elite hitter in Nick Gonzales with the seventh overall pick.  Gonzales was a consensus top five ranked prospect, so it was good to see the Bucs get plus value at number seven.

After the team took Gonzales, they went on to select five straight pitchers.  Pitching was a huge need in the organization and Cherington, knowing he got an elite bat already, knew he could be aggressive towards arms.  Hopefully, the strategy pays off, as they selected a lot of power arms with plus spin rates.

With the team having a really poor start to the season, the phrase “Tank for Kumar”, or like we have started to say “Krash for Kumar”, has become popular among Pirates fans.  Kumar Rocker is one of the aces for the Vanderbilt Commodores.  Rocker was viewed as a potential first-round pick in 2018, but let teams know he planned on sticking to his college commitment.  It has worked out; Rocker took home the College World Series Most Outstanding Player award in his freshmen year.

However, Rocker is not necessarily even considered the sure-fire number one pick next year just yet, and if the MLB implements a lottery of sorts, then the team will likely only be really guaranteed a top three pick, although if they have the worst record they would still have the best odds at number one.  Who are some of the prospects to keep in mind as the Pittsburgh Pirates continue on their 2020 season?

Jack Leiter, Right-Handed Pitcher, Vanderbilt University

I said Kumar Rocker was one of Vanderbilt’s aces, that is because Jack Leiter is the other.  Like Rocker in 2018, Leiter could have been a first-round pick in 2019.  Instead, he once again made a strong commitment to be known and went to Vandy.  Next year he will be a draft-eligible sophomore.

Interestingly enough Leiter has actually surpassed Rocker on FanGraphs’ 2021 Draft Board rankings.  There are multiple reasons why; there are some questions about Rocker, meaning he is not necessarily a consensus number one pick.  One thing that is playing in Leiter’s favor is his age and pedigree.  First off, Leiter is about a half-year younger than Rocker, which in baseball currency matters.  Secondly, he is the son of World Series Champion Al Leiter, giving him that extra tool of growing up around the game which is valued to an extent as well.

Overall, Leiter does not have the frame one would expect in a number one overall pick.  He stands at 6’1” and only weighs around 200 pounds.  Still, 6’1” is not a terrible height and should not limit him much on the mound.  Overall, his value lies in his pitches.  Here is a little blurb from FanGraphs on his two best pitches:

At his best, Leiter was up to 98 mph and spotting a plus curveball with enough command to draw whiffs, but other times would be in the low-90’s with below average command. He’s sophomore eligible by age in 2021.

One thing is that in today’s game it is more about the pitches than it is about the pitcher.  So Leiter may not have the big build that traditional starters have, but he has two plus pitches that also have plus spin rates.  This spring he added a slider to his arsenal, something that most MLB teams want, and it is starting to show chances of being a plus pitch.  If that pitch shows progress into next spring and his command improves, Leiter could make a case for being the top pick.  If not, he will surely be off the board at number two or three.

Jaden Hill, Right-Handed Pitcher, LSU

If the Pittsburgh Pirates are looking for a big starter but miss out on Kumar Rocker, Jaden Hill also fits the bill.  The LSU Tiger could be right in the conversation with Rocker and Leiter if he would have had a spring season this year.  Hill stands at 6’4” and weighs around 215 pounds, which unlike Rocker, gives him room to fill into.  Some teams may actually prefer this for development reasons, with concerns that Rocker does not really have any room to grow.

Hill got off to a great start with the Tigers as a freshmen.  He was the team’s best starter out of the gate pitching to a 1.80 ERA through his first two starts.  However, he was then shut down due to a strain in his UCL.  This is obviously the other concern with Hill.

UCL strains are never a good thing.  Usually, it suggests a pitcher is more prone to Tommy-John surgery eventually.  However, in today’s game, as the Pittsburgh Pirates are currently seeing, it is near impossible to predict who will or will not need Tommy-John eventually.

Hill bounced back with a strong spring before things were shut down.  He made four appearances, throwing 11.2 innings while not allowing a run and striking out 17.  Obviously he has big-time swing and miss stuff.  The swing and miss stuff is led by his fastball which has been clocked as high as 98 miles per hour this year.

Like Fabian, Hill will rely on having a spring baseball season.  He will need to come out and prove he is healthy.  Also, this past spring he did walk five batters, so command may be something to watch for Hill.  However, if he comes out and stays healthy for the season there is no reason Hill cannot position himself to be a potential top five pick as well.

For the Bucs, he would make sense.  He has top of the rotation type stuff and has the frame that any would want in a potential ace.  Hill was also a two-sport athlete coming out of high school.  This is something the new regime seemed to focus on in Toronto, selecting highly athletic players.  Hill also has only thrown a total of 21.2 NCAA innings, which while this could be concerning for scouting purposes, Cherington seemed to focus on drafting pitchers who had low mileage on their arms.  This past draft, the club took Carmen Mlodzinski with a history of missed time, so they could like that about Hill as well.

Overall these are likely the top college players that Ben Cherington will likely have his eyes on.  There are a few other college bats that could be in play such as Matt McLain of UCLA or Alex Binelas of Louisville, but after taking an infielder with their top pick in 2020 another would seem unlikely.

The same would go for Florida State outfielder Robby Martin, who has a plus bat but is already projected as a right-fielder.  This is something that Cherington normally stays away from, as he likes to take athletes up the middle.  If they were going to go outfielder, the younger and more athletic Fabian would make more sense.

I only looked at the college players because that is most likely what Ben Cherington would like to do with a top three pick next year.  College players are a lot easier to scout, find information on, and are just easier to project and therefore are safer picks when drafting that high. Just look at this past year’s draft, five college players to one prep player.  Combine that with the number of plus college players in the draft and it would be shocking for the Front Office to go toward a prep player.