Pittsburgh Pirates: Russell Martin Should Have Bat Leadoff in 2014

The Pittsburgh Pirates failed to capatalize on an opportunity that could have led to many more runs being scored in 2014 by not batting Russell Martin leadoff.

In 2014, the Pittsburgh Pirates finished with an 88-74 record. The winner of the National League Central came down to the final day of the season. Had the Pirates won against the Cincinnati Reds in the final game, and the St. Louis Cardinals lost, then they could have pushed a game 163, and possibly have avoided a Wild Card game.

Sadly, the Pittsburgh Pirates lost, and the Cardinals won giving the Pirates the top National League Wild Card seed for a second consecutive season. Unlike 2013 when the Pirates overwhelmed the cincinnati Reds in the NL Wild Card Game, in 2014 they ran into the buzzsaw that was Madison Bumgarner’s 2014 postseason dominance.

A few things led to the Pirates getting just the Wild Card. One was the trade for Ernesto Frieri. But the other was their leadoff hitter.

In 2014, the Pittsburgh Pirates used three players in the leadoff hitter quite often. Those three were Josh Harrison, Gregory Polanco and Starling Marte. Harrison was used as the leadoff man quite often with 376 of his 550 plate appearances coming from the leadoff spot. Marte played 142 of his plate appearances, and Polanco had 178 plate appearances in his 2014 season. They all fit the mold of a prototypical leadoff hitter, that being a fast base runner.

However, there is one issue with batting them leadoff. Both Polanco and Marte had a wRC+ below 100, or the league average mark, when they hit leadoff. Harrison had hit .328/.359/.535 with a 153 wRC+ in the leadoff spot, which is pretty solid. But when we focus on a leadoff hitter, we really should just be looking at on base percentage. After all, a leadoff hitter’s job is to get on base and set the table for the rest of the line up. Harrison got on base a solid amount as a leadoff guy, but the Pirates’ .332 OBP out of the leadoff spot ranked just 12th in MLB.

The Pittsburgh Pirates could have used someone else in the leadoff spot in 2014. Someone who had mastered the art of getting on base during the 2014 season. That someone was catcher Russell Martin.

Martin was signed prior to the 2013 season mainly for his glove, but the Pirates also got a decent bat out of Martin. In 2014, Martin was outstanding through 460 plate appearances. He hit .290/.402/.430 with a 140 wRC+ and .370 wOBA. Only four players in 2014 had both 400+ plate appearances and an OBP above .400. Those four were Victor Martinez, the runner up in AL MVP voting, at .409, fellow Pirate Andrew McCutchen who finished third in NL MVP voting at .410, Jose Bautista who finished 6th in AL MVP voting with a .403 OBP, and Martin. When you reach an OBP above .400, you’re reaching into elite territory.

Instead of batting leadoff, 343 of Martin’s 460 plate appearances from the number five spot. Martin was great with runners in scoring position in 2014 hitting .360/.477/.500 in those situations. But after the 5th spot, the Pirates were mainly giving plate appearances to Jordy Mercer, Pedro Alvarez and Ike Davis. While Davis and Alvarez were above average hitters, none of them were outstanding when it came to getting hits with men on. The highest wRC+ with men on base among the trio was Alvarez at 107.

Getting a .400+ OBP guy in the leadoff spot would have been huge for the Pirates that year. Imagine just how many more chances guys like McCutchen or Harrison might have had to drive in multiple runs, or how many times a solo home would have been a two run long ball had Martin led off?

Now yes, Martin was fantastic when it came time to hit with men on base and with RISP. I showed just how good he was with RISP, but he also hit .320/.423/.438 with men on base in general. But it’s not like the Pirates were devoid of any capable hitters of hitting when it mattered. A total of six Pirate batters had a wRC+ of 120 or higher with men on, and 100+ plate appearances.

One of the other large reasons the Pittsburgh Pirates should have batted Martin leadoff is by batting Harrison leadoff instead they gave potentially their best hitter with men on the least amount of plate appearances to drive in multiple runners. With runners on in general, Harison hit .370/.392/.549 with a 166 wRC+. With RISP, he hit .372/.404/.500 with a 155 wRC+. In high leverage moments, the utility man had a .442/.468/.628 line with a 207 wRC+.

Yes, Harrison was 107% better than the average hitter when it came to high leverage moments. But while he was absolutely mashing the ball, he only had 173 plate appearances with men on base because he batted leadoff almost all the time. In comparison, McCutchen had 288 plate appearances with men on base. Imagine how many more chances Harrison would have had if Martin and his .402 on base percentage was hitting leadoff, or how many times Andrew McCutchen, a 163 wRC+ batter with men on base in 2014, would have stepped to the plate with RISP.

There’s no doubt in my mind that the Pirates would have scored a notable amount of more runs. How many of those 1 run games the Pirates lost in 2014 might have been prevented if Martin had led off? How many solo home runs against division rivals would have been two or three run long balls if the Pirates had someone with a .400+ OBP starting things off? I don’t think it’s absurd to say that if the Pirates had batted Martin leadoff, they might have won the division, and in turn avoided the Wild Card Game.