Pittsburgh Pirates: Six Potential Joe Musgrove Trade Partners

Joe Musgrove is the most valuable trade piece that the Pittsburgh Pirates have. There are always teams looking for good starting pitching, and these six might be the most active when it comes to acquiring a starter.

One of the most valuable trade pieces that the Pittsburgh Pirates have is starting pitcher Joe Musgrove. Since arriving in Pittsburgh in the Gerrit Cole trade, Musgrove has established himself as a solid starting pitcher with improving numbers.

Between 2018 and 2019, the right hander posted a 4.28 ERA, but a 3.72 FIP, 1.20 WHIP, he walked just 5.1% of the batters he faced, allowed home runs at a solid 1.04 per 9 rate, and has posted a deserved run average (DRA) below 4.00 in both seasons. In 2018, his DRA was 3.43 and his DRA the following year was 3.59.

In this past year, Musgrove was limited to just 39.2 innings, but was excellent when he was healthy. He put up a 3.86 ERA, 3.19 FIP and 1.24 WHIP. Though his walk rate increased to 9.4%, his strikeout rate skyrocketed to above 30% at 33.1%, and his HR/9 remained relatively similar to his 2018-2019 numbers at 1.13. ERA estimators loved Musgrove as he put up a 3.19 xFIP, 3.54 SIERA and 3.64 DRA.

Impressively, opponents could only muster an 85.1 MPH exit velocity on Big Joe, which ranked in the top 91st percentile of all pitchers in 2020. In comparison, his opponent exit velo was 88.5 MPH in the two years prior. Combined with a hard hit rate of just 32.3% and career high ground ball rate of 48.4% and you have a really good pitcher on your hands. He was also above average in terms of xWOBA, fastball and curveball spin rates, and xSlugging.

Musgrove is controlled through 2022. If the Pittsburgh Pirates don’t feel they need to extend him, Musgrove could become a very valuable trade piece. He’s already garnered some attention in trade talks as he was almost dealt at the 2020 trade deadline. This off-season, there shouldn’t be a shortage of rumors surrounding the quality starting pitcher and the Pittsburgh Pirates. But who could we expect to see show some interest in Musgrove?

Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays were actually the team that made the hard push for Musgrove and nearly acquired him at the deadline this year, and also were the team to draft him with the 46th selection in the 2011 MLB Draft. Toronto currently has a very good number one starter in Korean southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu, and a very promising prospect in Nate Pearson, but the rest of the rotation leaves much to be desired. This makes the Blue Jays and Pittsburgh Pirates potential trade partners

Currently, Matt Shoemaker and Tanner Roark make up the next two spots in their rotation. While neither are awful backend starters, they would be their number three and number four starters. Their number five spot would be completely up for grabs.

The Jays acquired Ross Stripling from the LA Dodgers at the deadline, but he looks to be more of a swingman than their regular number five . Prospect Anthony Kay could also be another option for the numer five spot as he was a starting pitching prospect, but moved to the pen when he made the Majors. Sean Reid-Foley is in the same boat as Kay. T.J. Zeuch, Ryan Borucki, Trent Thorton, Tom Hatch, and Shun Yamaguchi all were long relief or swingmen for the Jays in 2020 and all have experience as starting pitchers.

Still, even if they opt to go with one of their multiple answer for the last three spots, none are ones you would want to enter a season with, especially if you are trying to compete. The Jays have a strong, young hitting core consisting of Vlad Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Rowdy Tellez, Teoscar Hernandez, Danny Jansen or Alejandro Kirk with more on the way. They also have a solid bullpen, but the lack of good starting pitching will hurt the Jays. They’ll definitely be in the market for starting pitchers which makes Big Joe a prime candidate for them to target. The Ben Cherington connection could also be a factor here for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

New York Yankees

Former Pittsburgh Pirates ace Gerrit Cole will lead the charge for the New York Yankees’ starting rotation in 2021 with a supporting cast of prospects like Deivi Garcia and Clarke Schmidt. However, they, like the Jays, also will have a few questions about their starting five.

For one, how will Luis Severino fare after his return from Tommy John surgery? After establishing himself as an ace-level pitcher in 2017 and 2018, Severino missed nearly all of 2019, and was forced to undergo TJ surgery at the beginning of 2020. A trio of veterans in Masahiro Tanaka, James Paxton and J.A. Happ will hit free agency.

Tanaka has been a solid pitcher for the Yankees, but hasn’t had an ace-like season since 2016. James Paxton has shown ace ability, but is a very big injury risk. Happ was extremely inconsistent in 2020, and put up poor numbers in 2019.

The Yankees are going to be relying on a handful of young pitchers to hold down the fort in the starting rotation. Garcia and Schmidt have yet to graduate prospect status. The uncertainty surrounding Severino doesn’t help either. With three veteran starters hitting free agency, and the Yankees already having a loaded payroll with two monstrous contracts on it, they’re likely not going to be heavily chasing top flight arms in free agency.

Atlanta Braves

The fruits of the Atlanta Braves’ rebuild are starting to pay off. Many of the young players they acquired through drafting, signing internationally, and trading for when they were prospects are now core pieces of the Braves’ roster. But their starting rotation could use a bit of a boost.

Their ace, Mike Soroka, suffered an achilles tear in the early weeks of the 2020 season. However, Max Fried helped fill the hole Soroka left behind becoming a dominant lefty with a 2.25 ERA, 3.10 FIP and 1.08 WHIP. The Braves added more reinforcements when they promoted top prospect Ian Anderson who had a 1.95 ERA, 2.54 FIP and 1.08 WHIP in his first 32.1 career innings.

Soroka, Fried and Anderson make a formidable three, but the last two spots are not set in stone. Another one of the Braves’ former elite pitching prospects Kyle Wright had an extremely inconsistent 2020. He got off to an ice cold start, but ended the year on a high note. He’s likely the frontrunner for the number four spot.

The Braves saw four other pitchers make at least five starts, and none of them did well. The lowest ERA out of Touki Toussaint, Robbie Erlin, Huscar Ynoa, and Josh Tomlin was Tomlin’s 4.76 mark. Their 2018 ace Mike Foltywenicz was designated for assignment after giving up six earned runs, including three home runs in 3.1 innings. Former prospect Sean Newcomb also struggled out of the rotation, and was demoted to the club’s alternative site as well.

They’re likely not going to rush a talented arm like Soroka back after missing so much time to such a big injury, and the rest of the options for the last spot in the rotation aren’t the most awe inspiring. Trading for Musgrove not only would provide some stability in their rotation, but also save them some money so they could pursue extensions with MVP candidate Freddie Freeman, catcher Travis d’Arnaud and DH/outfielder Marcell Ozuna.

Washington Nationals

The 2019 World Series winning Washington Nationals took home the trophy after nobody expected them to thanks in large part to a rotation featuring four aces in Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin, and Anibal Sanchez.

With all four returning with the Nats for the 2020 season, their rotation was clearly the strongest part of their roster, but after such a dominant showing in 2019, their rotation completely fell apart.

Their two-time Cy Young Winner, Scherzer, missed a chunk of the season, and didn’t put up Scherzer-like numbers when he was healthy. Strasburg pitched just 5 innings in the entire season. Corbin struggled posting an ERA and FIP above 4. Sanchez was just downright awful, allowing 39 earned runs on 11 long balls, and 70 hits in 53 innings. Sanchez also has a contract option for 2021 for $18 million, or a buyout for $6 million. After the season he had, there’s a good chance they buy him out.

Their other starters who filled in for injuries struggled as well. Former top prospect Erick Fedde has yet to find his footing in the big leagues. After a solid 2019 season serving as the Nationals’ fifth starter, Austin Voth struggled even more than Anibal did. Prospect Will Crowe gave up 5 home runs in 8.1 innings.

Even if their big three in Scherzer, Strasburg and Corbin do bounceback, they do not have an answer for their last two spots. With such a powerful 1-3, they’re likely not going to pursue another ace like Trevor Bauer, the top free agent starter available. However, Fedde, Voth, and Crowe all had FIP’s above six, with Crowe sitting at 12.31. None of that trio should be a 4th and 5th starter for a team looking to compete.

Houston Astros

The team Musgrove first reached the Majors with could once again be interested in the right hander. The ‘Stros faced many issues, both on and off the field, and were impeided by many injuries that threw their season into the trash. Now, they may be interested in getting a former pitcher of theirs back from the Pittsburgh Pirates.

They’re going to be without Justin Verlander for most, if not all of 2021 as he had to undergo Tommy John surgery early this year. He pitched just 6 innings in 2020 before having to go under the knife.

Zack Greinke put up pretty good results, but not the ace level numbers you’d expect from a pitcher of his caliber with a 4.03 ERA, 2.80 FIP and 1.13 WHIP. Framber Valdez was their ace this year as he put up a 3.57 ERA, 2.85 FIP and 1.11 WHIP in 70.2 innings. Lance McCullers Jr. made a nice return from his own Tommy John procedure as he had a 3.93 ERA, 3.70 FIP and 1.16 in 55 innings.

That trio will return to the rotation for the Astros in 2021, but the rest of the starting staff leaves some to be desired. Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy put up solid ERAs and WHIPs, but both of their FIPs and xFIPs were approaching 5, with Urquidy having a 5.36 xFIP. They could also turn to top prospect Forest Whitley, but after surrendering 9 long balls in 24.1 innings at Triple-A in 2019, the Astros might not want to rush him to the majors just yet.

Other Potential Teams

While the Jays, Yankees, Angels, Braves, Nationals and Astros are all likely going to be the most active in looking for some rotation arms, they’re not going to be the only ones in the market. I could see these teams looking into Musgrove and contacting the Pittsburgh Pirates as well.

Chicago White Sox

Like the Nationals, the White Sox have a strong 1-3 in Lucas Giolito, Dallas Keuchel and Dane Dunning. They’ll also be joined by top 20 prospect Michael Kopech who sat out 2020 because of concerns with COVID-19. However, they do have a deep farm system with many young arms. Dunning, Kopech, Dylan Cease, Jonathan Stiever and Matt Foster all could round out their rotation.

Though someone like Musgrove would be a solid piece, and a pitcher they might kick the tires on, they have enough young arms and experienced arms that they don’t need to heavily pursue more pitching at this moment.

San Francisco Giants

The Giants had an outstanding offense last year, finishing with a team .785 OPS and 114 wRC+. Both of which ranked in the top-8 of MLB teams. However they could use some help on the pitching side of things. They had a team 4.64 ERA, 4.45 FIP and 1.32 WHIP. They got good performances out of starters like Drew Smyly, Kevin Gausman, and Trevor Cahill, but veterans Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzjia struggled throughout the year, and prospect Logan Webb also didn’t do great.

Gausman, Smyly and Cahill will be free agents, which could leave the Giants pretty barren in the starting pitching department. However, the Giants aren’t really going for it yet as some of their best prospects like Marco Luciano and Heliot Ramos are still another year or two away. Still, if they see themselves as potential contenders, they could also show some interest in a pitcher like Musgrove.

Miami Marlins

The Marlins are in a similar boat to the White Sox. They have plenty of young arms ready to take the reins for a team looking to re-enter competition. Pablo Lopez, Sixto Sanchez, Sandy Alcantara, and Elieser Hernandez are all 25 or younger. Jordan Yamamoto, Braxton Garrett and Daniel Castano are also young pitchers who could round out their rotation. They could be in the market for a good veteran presence to help solidify their rotation.

But in their current state, they might be more interested in pursuing someone like Trevor Bauer, or another top of the rotation type arm. But if they lose out on one of the other aces on the market, turning to Musgrove isn’t a bad constellation prize.