Pittsburgh Pirates: Ke’Bryan Hayes Moves up in Prospect Rankings

The best prospect the Pittsburgh Pirates had entering the 2020 season was thrid baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes who, even after his thrilling MLB debut, continues to climb prospect rankings.

Back in March 2020, FanGraphs released their first prospect lists for the year. The Pittsburgh Pirates were in a good place with six top 100 prospects. The highest of which was third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes. FanGraphs ranked the defensively gifted infielder as the 30th best prospect in baseball.

The 2019 season was a roller coaster for Hayes. He hit .265/.336/.415 with a 92 wRC+ through 480 plate appearances. Not fantastic numbers, but he did miss a little over a half of a month because of an index finger injury and when he returned, Hayes went on a hot streak.

In the second half of the season, Hayes .290/.337/.435, compared to a line of just .245/.336/.398 in the first half of the season. He also mashed at Double-A, hitting .293/.375/.444 with a 129 wRC+.

Throughout his minor league career, he proved himself to be an elite defender at the hot corner as well. FanGraphs gives his fielding a current 60 grade and future grade of 70. His arm grade sits at a 60 as well. No other third baseman entering 2020 had a fielding grade higher than 50, other than Hayes. He also was very athletic given his 60 current speed grade.

Hit wise, Hayes was given a future 55 grade for his hit tool, with a 40 future game power grade and 50 current/future raw power grade. There was never any question as to if he had the power. At Triple-A, his average exit velocity was 92 MPH. In 2019, that would have been comparable to All-Stars like D.J. LeMahieu (91.9 MPH), Bryce Harper (91.9 MPH), Juan Soto (92 MPH) and 2019 American League Rookie of the Year Yordan Alvarez (92.2 MPH).

But the question would be whether or not he could get the ball in the air enough to use that power. Hayes put up a 46.4% ground ball rate with a sub-20% line drive rate. Line drives are the best possible outcome on any hit ball, and with such a lower rate, he wasn’t able to hit to his full potential in 2019.

Eventually, he made his debut in 2020 after the Pittsburgh Pirates kept him down at their alternative site for service time reasons. When Hayes finally did make his debut with the Pittsburgh Pirates, he absolutely raked.

In 95 plate appearances, Hayes hit .376/.442/.682 with five home runs with a 202 OPS+ and 195 wRC+. Hayes was ripping the cover off the ball. His 92.8 MPH exit velocity would have ranked in the top 15th of major league baseball players had he had enough playing time to qualify. He also made hard contact 55.4% of the time, which would have ranked in the top 10 of players had he qualified. Though Hayes was hitting more ground balls, his line drive rate had climbed to 22%.

Hayes also displayed his outstanding defense at the hot corner. In just 198.1 innings, Hayes put up +4 DRS, 0.5 range runs above average and 0.5 UZR. UZR/150 essentially gives you an idea of how good a player was defensively across an entire season, and Hayes had a fantastic mark of 8.9.

Since then, Hayes has been climbing the prospect rankings. After starting out as the 30th best prospect in baseball, Fangraphs now ranks Hayes as the 15th best. His hit tool went from a future of 55 to a future of 60, with both his game power and raw power grades rising to a future of 50. His future value went from a 55 to a 60 as well. Now granted, a handful of prospects, like Gavin Lux, Jesus Luzardo, Luis Robert, and Carter Kieboom all helped Hayes reach that point, but that was far from the sole factor that helped Hayes make such a rise.

This bodes well for the future of Hayes and the Pittsburgh Pirates. The young third baseman looks like he could be a cornerstone of this franchise with a glvoe that even would envy the likes of Nolan Arenado, Matt Chapman and Manny Machado. Even if he carries on some semblance of what he showed in 2020, he could be an easy regular all-star. If the rest of the farm develops well, then we could see an extremely strong core surrounding Hayes in the very near future.