Pittsburgh Pirates: Four Pitchers With Breakout Potential

Nik Turley

Last season, Nik Turley finally resutfaced in the Majors after missing the 2018 and 2019 seasons. Turley missed both seasons because of a PED suspension and arm injuries that kept him out of actions. Before 2020, the last time he got a decent amount of playing time was with the Minnesota Twins.

In 2017, Turley pitched 92 innings with Minnesota’s Double-A and Triple A affiliates. He had stellar numbers including a 2.05 ERA, 1.98 FIP and 1.01 WHIP. Turley struck out batters at a strong rate of 34.5% while keeping walks to just 8.1%. Home runs were a non-issue for the lefty surrendering just foru. His xFIP at Double-A was a fantastic 0.84 and while it was much higher at Triple-A, it still sat at a decent 3.41 mark.

Turley reached the Big Leagues in 2017 and pitched 17.2 innings allowing 22 earned runs on five home runs, 30 hits, eight walks, and 12 strikeouts. However, despite his lackluster results in his debut season, his fastball averaged 2612 RPM and his curveball came in with 2736 RPM.

In 2020, Turley pitched 21.2 innings with the Pittsburgh Pirates. He put up sub-par numbers with a 4.98 ERA, 5.60 xFIP, 4.82 SIERA, and 5.14 DRA. He did have a 3.88 FIP and the home run suppression continued allowing just a single home run. Baseball Savant’s expected ERA was at 3.78, which was in the top 63rd percentile. Turley was above average in terms of hard hit rate, expected batting average, slugging, and wOBA.

Impressively, Turley was in the top 95th percentile of fastball spin rate averaging 2536 RPM. His other pitch, a curveball, was in the top 85th percentile of spinrate in baseball at 2815 RPM. In 2017, the southpaw threw a change up but didn’t throw a single one in 2020. Turley could take a big step forward for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2021.

JT Brubaker

JT Brubaker would have made his debut with the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2019 had it not been for injuries that kept him out for the majority of the season. Finally, Brubaker got to face MLB hitters in 2020.

Brubaker served mainly as a starting pitcher for the Pittsburgh Pirates where he had a 4.94 ERA, 4.08 FIP and 1.37 WHIP in 47.1 innings of work. Brubaker’s ERA predictors were overall average with a 4.14 xFIP, 4.28 SIERA and 4.51 DRA.

Brubaker showed some solid strikeout stuff posting a 23.4% strikeout rate. He put up a solid walk rate of 8.3%, and his HR/9 sat at 1.14. Overall, not bad numbers but nothing out super impressive.

What is more impressive is his five-pitch mix. Brubaker’s best pitch is his curveball which sits in the top 87th percentile of spin rate at 2857 RPM. His slider also has a decent amount of spin with 2634 RPM. His primary pitch is a sinker, but he also throws a fastball, four-seamer and change up.

What Brubaker’s role with the Pittsburgh Pirates is long term is still fairly undecided. He looked extremely impressive out of the pen. While it was just 5 innings, Brubaker struck out seven of the 20 batters he faced, showing some extremely impressive movement. Out of the rotation, he had a few solid outings, but looked way better out of the ‘pen. Still, given his above average hard hit rate and exit velocity and spin rates, I think Brubaker could be a pitcher to watch in 2021.

Cody Ponce

One of the arms the Pittsburgh Pirates have that gets over looked is right-hander Cody Ponce. Since being drafted by the Milwaukee Brewers back in 2015, Ponce’s role has changed multiple times. He started out as a starter from 2015 to 2017. In 2018, he was moved to the bullpen after struggling at the higher levels when he was coming out of the rotation.

To start 2019, Ponce was exclusively used out of the bullpen. He was pitching quite well as he put up a 3.29 ERA, 2.59 FIP and 1.17 WHIP in 38.1 innings. When he was moved to the ‘pen, Ponce’s strikeout rate rose to a strong 27.5% mark while keeping a decent 7.5% walk rate. He also only allowed one home run enroute to posting a strong 2.88 xFIP.

When the Pittsburgh Pirates acquired Ponce at the 2019 trade deadline in exchange for Jordan Lyles, they moved him back to the rotation where he had middling results.

Ponce was promoted to Triple-A Indianapolis where he had a 5.30 ERA, 5.39 FIP and 1.33 WHIP. His strikeout rates and walk rates took a bit of a hit, going to 24.4% and 8.5%, respectively, but it was the home runs that really bit Ponce. He surrendered four in 18.1 innings of work. During the offseason, Ponce pitched in the Arizona Fall League where he was used out of the rotation and put up really good numbers which included a 2.35 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 2.33 FIP in 23 innings.

The right-hander made his major league debut in 2020, his age 26 season. He pitched 17 innings posting a 3.18 ERA, but only struck out 12 batters and five of the 12 hits he surrendered went for home runs. Despite his overall lackluster results in his first taste of MLB action, there’s still a lot to like about Ponce.

FanGraphs gives Ponce two pitches with 60-grade potential, his two fastballs. He doesn’t throw particularly hard with his four-seamer coming in at 93.2 MPH, but does have 2516 RPM. His other fastball is a cutter. Right now, that grades out as a 55, but has a future of 60 because of its 2543 RPM. He also throws a sinker on occasion, which comes in with 2550 RPM. Overall, Ponce’s fastball spin rates rank at the top 95th in all of baseball. Ponce, like Brubaker, could serve multiple roles in 2021.