Pittsburgh Pirates: Four Pitchers With Breakout Potential

We saw a handful of players make their debut with the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2020, but who are some of the potential arms we could see breakout in 2021?

2020 hasn’t been a normal year, especially for Major League Baseball. Despite finishing with a 19-41 record, the Pittsburgh Pirates got a lot out of the 2020 season. They got the first draft pick, and watched a handful of players show a decent amount of potential at in the Majors.

Next season, we should see a handful of the players we saw in 2020 return with the Pittsburgh Pirates. With the new pitching regime, we also saw a handful of pitchers take steps forward. Joe Musgrove had a great season and Chris Stratton had a nice breakout. Richard Rodriguez also had a strong bounce back campaign after a rough 2019. So who are some arms that we could see breakout in 2021?

Carson Fulmer

The Chicago White Sox selected Carson Fulmer with the 8th overall pick in the 2015 draft for a reason. He has some outstanding stuff. Fulmer ranked as a top 100 prospect in 2016 and 2017, but has struggled since getting to the professional stage.

Things for Fulmer’s career haven’t gone as planned when the Sox took him in the first-round. Fulmer looked good in his first few professional outings, pitching to the tune of a 1.96 ERA, 3.46 FIP and 1.13 WHIP in 23 innings. Fulmer struck out 26 batters and issued nine walks. However, he hasn’t been the same since.

Fulmer has continuously struggled with walks. In 2016, his walk rate jumped from 9.7% to 12.2% between Double-A and Triple-A. Fulmer’s high walk rate in 2016 led to a 4.63 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 3.87 FIP.

Fulmer made his professional debut in 2016 and while it was a small sample size of 11.2 innings, the walks continued, issuing seven free passes. In 2017, Fulmer’s walk rate stayed relatively the same at 11.4%, but his strikeout rate fell dramatically to a meer 16.8% after reaching 22.7% the year prior. He also gave up 18 home runs in 126 innings at Triple-A compared to just eight in 108 innings in 2016.

The righty continued to struggled in 2018 serving as a reliever part time, but he did show some promise again in 2019. He pitched 34 innings with a 4.76 ERA, but his strikeout rate reached 33.6% and he allowed only two home runs. While walks were still an issue, giving them out at a 13.8% rate, his FIP sat at 3.24.

MLB hitters have not been all that kind to him, either. He’s pitched 105 innings with a 6.34 ERA, 6.03 FIP and 1.60 WHIP. The walk and home run issues have continued to plague the right hander with a 13.9% walk rate and 1.71 HR/9. Fulmer’s strikeout percentage sits at just 18.9%. His career xFIP is 4.77 while is SIERA is 4.22.

Regardless of the numbers, Fulmer has the stuff to be a solid relief pitcher for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Fulmer’s cutter sits in the top 91st percentile in spin rate coming in with 2623 RPM. Meanwhile, his curveball averaged 2674 RPM, which sat in the top 88th percentile. If Fulmer transitions to the pen, he could focus on just two or three pitches. Not only could that help his control, but also potentially help increase his velocity.

JT Brubaker

JT Brubaker would have made his debut with the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2019 had it not been for injuries that kept him out for the majority of the season. Finally, Brubaker got to face MLB hitters in 2020.

Brubaker served mainly as a starting pitcher for the Pittsburgh Pirates where he had a 4.94 ERA, 4.08 FIP and 1.37 WHIP in 47.1 innings of work. Brubaker’s ERA predictors were overall average with a 4.14 xFIP, 4.28 SIERA and 4.51 DRA.

Brubaker showed some solid strikeout stuff posting a 23.4% strikeout rate. He put up a solid walk rate of 8.3%, and his HR/9 sat at 1.14. Overall, not bad numbers but nothing out super impressive.

What is more impressive is his five-pitch mix. Brubaker’s best pitch is his curveball which sits in the top 87th percentile of spin rate at 2857 RPM. His slider also has a decent amount of spin with 2634 RPM. His primary pitch is a sinker, but he also throws a fastball, four-seamer and change up.

What Brubaker’s role with the Pittsburgh Pirates is long term is still fairly undecided. He looked extremely impressive out of the pen. While it was just 5 innings, Brubaker struck out seven of the 20 batters he faced, showing some extremely impressive movement. Out of the rotation, he had a few solid outings, but looked way better out of the ‘pen. Still, given his above average hard hit rate and exit velocity and spin rates, I think Brubaker could be a pitcher to watch in 2021.

Cody Ponce

One of the arms the Pittsburgh Pirates have that gets over looked is right-hander Cody Ponce. Since being drafted by the Milwaukee Brewers back in 2015, Ponce’s role has changed multiple times. He started out as a starter from 2015 to 2017. In 2018, he was moved to the bullpen after struggling at the higher levels when he was coming out of the rotation.

To start 2019, Ponce was exclusively used out of the bullpen. He was pitching quite well as he put up a 3.29 ERA, 2.59 FIP and 1.17 WHIP in 38.1 innings. When he was moved to the ‘pen, Ponce’s strikeout rate rose to a strong 27.5% mark while keeping a decent 7.5% walk rate. He also only allowed one home run enroute to posting a strong 2.88 xFIP.

When the Pittsburgh Pirates acquired Ponce at the 2019 trade deadline in exchange for Jordan Lyles, they moved him back to the rotation where he had middling results.

Ponce was promoted to Triple-A Indianapolis where he had a 5.30 ERA, 5.39 FIP and 1.33 WHIP. His strikeout rates and walk rates took a bit of a hit, going to 24.4% and 8.5%, respectively, but it was the home runs that really bit Ponce. He surrendered four in 18.1 innings of work. During the offseason, Ponce pitched in the Arizona Fall League where he was used out of the rotation and put up really good numbers which included a 2.35 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 2.33 FIP in 23 innings.

The right-hander made his major league debut in 2020, his age 26 season. He pitched 17 innings posting a 3.18 ERA, but only struck out 12 batters and five of the 12 hits he surrendered went for home runs. Despite his overall lackluster results in his first taste of MLB action, there’s still a lot to like about Ponce.

FanGraphs gives Ponce two pitches with 60-grade potential, his two fastballs. He doesn’t throw particularly hard with his four-seamer coming in at 93.2 MPH, but does have 2516 RPM. His other fastball is a cutter. Right now, that grades out as a 55, but has a future of 60 because of its 2543 RPM. He also throws a sinker on occasion, which comes in with 2550 RPM. Overall, Ponce’s fastball spin rates rank at the top 95th in all of baseball. Ponce, like Brubaker, could serve multiple roles in 2021.