Pittsburgh Pirates: The 2016 First-Round Draft Pick That Got Away

During the summer of 2016 the Pittsburgh Pirates had a less than stellar draft that could have been much better had they signed a first-round pick that got away

Four years later, the 2016 draft for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Their first-round pick, Will Craig, didn’t develop like they had hoped and was recently designated for assignment by the Pirates.

Currently, FanGraphs only ranks two prospects from that draft in their top 40, that being Travis MacGregor at number 21 and Blake Cederlind at number 29. However, the Pittsburgh Pirates could have salvaged their 2016 draft if they were able to sign their second first-round draft selection, pitcher Nick Lodolo.

The Pittsburgh Pirates took a risk selecting Lodolo with the 41st overall selection in the draft. He was only ranked by MLB Pipeline as the 85th best prospect entering the draft while Perfect Game ranked him as the 48th best high school prospect. Pipeline even calls him a high-risk, high-reward player in their overview from 2016.

With a 6-foot-6, 180 pound frame, Lodolo was a very projectable arm coming out of high school. Pipeline identified his fastball was averaging out around 92-93 MPH. His curveball was seen as a potential out pitch and occasionally threw a change up to mix things up. Pipeline said that his control over his fastball was decent, able to throw it on both sides of the plate.

Lodolo was a very raw talent at the time, but the Pittsburgh Pirates seemed to know what they had in him. Pipeline didn’t even have him in the top 50 and he was barely even in the top 50 of high schoolers. They took him with the 41st overall pick in the draft but were unable to sign him as he decided to go to Texas Christian University instead.

Lodolo would continue to improve in college. During his last year at university in 2019, Lodolo pitched 103 innings with a 2.36 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 2.35 FIP. Lodolo faced 418 batters and struck out 131 of them for a 31.3% strikeout rate. He also posted a 6.0% walk rate, which was the best he had put up through college. Home runs weren’t much of an issue either as he surrendered just 8.

Lodolo reentered the draft in 2019 and this time around, MLB Pipeline ranked him as the 8th best prospect while FanGraphs ranked him as the 7th best prospect available. So in this draft, Lodolo was selected again, this time 7th overall by one of Pittsburgh’s divisional rivals, the Cincinnati Reds.

Lodolo has pitched 18.1 innings professionally, striking out 30 batters, allowing just a single home run, and impressively walking zero batters. Still a very projectable arm, Lodolo carries three pitches, all three of which have average or better grades. His fastball now sits in the 91-94 MPH range and tops out at 96 MPH.

Currently, FanGraphs sees it as a 50 grade pitch with a future of 55. FanGraphs identifies his breaking pitch as a curveball but MLB Pipeline sees it as a slider. Lodolo formerly threw a curveball, and FanGraphs gives his breaking pitch a 55 current and 60 future grade while Pipeline gives his slider a 55 grade. His off speed pitch is still a change up which comes in as a 50 currently, but 55 in the future. Obviously, Lodolo has great control as evident by his zero walks in 18.1 innings of work in 2019. His command grade per FanGraphs is a 55 and MLB Pipeline gives his control a 60 grade.

Lodolo is now a consensus top 100 prospect. MLB Pipeline ranks him as high as 43 while FanGraphs has him at 93. Other sources like Baseball America (77) and Baseball Prospectus (59) rank him in the top 100 as well. Still, he’s seen as one of the top left handed pitchers in the minor leagues.

This shows that under Neal Huntington the Pittsburgh Pirates had an eye for talent. Now sure, he didn’t have any misses like Pedro Alvarez, Tony Sanchez, or even the guy they picked with their first pick in the 2016 draft with Will Craig, but you could go through the Pirate drafts from 2008 to 2019 they picked some very notable players, even if they didn’t sign with the Pirates. That just happens to be the case with Nick Lodolo.