Pittsburgh Pirates: 2017 2nd Round Pick a Potential Breakout Prospect

The Pittsburgh Pirates took some notable pitching prospects in the 2017 draft with Shane Baz and Cody Bolton being the headliners. In the 2nd round of that draft, the Bucs selected right-hander Steven Jennings out of DeKalb County High School. While he hasn’t put up great numbers yet in his professional career, he could be a prospect to breakout in 2021.

Jennings has pitched 221.2 innings with a 4.67 ERA, 3.94 FIP and 1.39 WHIP. Jennings has showed decent control with a 7.9% walk rate while having a 0.89 HR/9. He only has had a 18.8% strikeout rate, but has improved so far every season.

Jennings improved his K/BB ratio by nearly a whole strikeout between 2018-2019, going from 1.96 to 2.95. He has also seen his WHIP decrease from 1.45 to 1.33. Overall, his control has also improved, walking just 7.1% of the batters he faced in 2019 compared to 8.98% in the two years prior. In terms of strikeout rate, he was only getting batters down on strike three 16% of the time in 2017-2018 compared to 20.9% in 2019. He also put up a sub-4 xFIP in 2019 at 3.99. The large gap in his ERA and FIP is also a sign he’s gotten a bit unlucky.

Jennings’s best tool is his command. FanGraphs sees it as a future 60-grade tool. His best pitch is his slider which comes in with a future 55 grade, but it’s only above average pitch. His curveball is only seen as a future 50 grade pitch and his fastball and change up are seen as only 45-grade pitches in the future.

Jennings isn’t a hard thrower, only averaging out at 88-92 MPH and topping out at 93 MPH. However, what is impressive is that Jennings averages 2500 RPM on his fastball. Spin rate started to be recorded in 2015 with the introduction of Statcast and it has become one of the most important parts of analyzing pitchers. This could be Jennings’s key to breaking out.

In a 2018 chart by Mike Petrillo, a 90 MPH fastball with 2500 RPM had a swinging strike rate of 8.4%. In comparison, a 97 MPH fastball with 2100 RPM only had a swinging strike rate of 7.8%. Essentially, despite only averaging out in the low-90s and upper-80s, Jennings’s spin rate can make up for the lack of velocity.

His curveball also averaged 3000 RPM, which helps it dart better. MLB Pipeline also said that he uses his change up to prevent batters from barreling up the ball. They also describe his slider to complement his curve very well.

Jennings’s stuff could also play up in the pen and transition into a Chris Stratton type pitcher. While he might not overwhelm batters with their velocity, they get outs using the decpivenes the spin on their pitches create.

Regardless, Jennings could be a break out prospect for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2021. The right-hander will be just 22-years-old. He’s improved every year so far and took a pretty decent step forward in 2019 at Low-A Greensboro and will look to take another big step forward going into next year.