Pittsburgh Pirates: Expectations For 2021 Starting Lineup

As the Pittsburgh Pirates wrap up their offseason moves we will take an early look at what should be a pretty set in stone starting lineup. What will these players be looking to achieve in the rebuilding season?

EVen after the trade of Josh Bell, combined with the likely impending trade of Adam Frazier, the Pittsburgh Pirates will enter the 2021 season with a pretty predictable starting lineup. Unsurprisingly, this lineup will consist of mostly young, unproven players that will look to establish themselves as MLB regulars.

Let’s take a look at the predicted lineup and see what my expectations are for each player entering 2021. Assuming Frazier is traded before Opening Day, the Pirate starting lineup, agaisnt right-handed pitchers at least, should be similar to the following:

1. Kevin Newman
2. Ke’Bryan Hayes
3. Bryan Reynolds
4. Colin Moran
5. Gregory Polanco
6. Jacob Stallings
7. Cole Tucker
8. Anthony Alford/Jared Olivia
9. Pitcher

The leadoff spot is probably the most “up in the air spot” in the Pirate starting lineup entering 2021. In a short 2020 season the Pittsburgh Pirates used multiple players in the leadoff spot, with Erik Gonzalez drawing the majority of the starts (20 games). Even though Gonzalez found short stretches of success, his .241 batting average and two stolen bases over those 20 games, as well as his career numbers, should result in him playing a bench/utility role in 2021.

Instead of Gonzalez, the Pittsburgh Pirates will most likely try to re-discover the Newman of 2019 who hit .328 over 75 games from the leadoff spot. Adding to my confidence in this assumption is Newman’s contract status. Newman is under contract through 2024 (two more years than Gonzalez), making him an important player for general manager Ben Cherington and his staff to evaluate.

Since the Pittsburgh Pirates will need to figure out if Newman has any trade value, is worth signing, or is a DFA candidate, they will give him every opportunity to succeed in 2021. My goal for Newman is that he puts together a solid offensive year where he increases his ISO and hard contact rate. Whether this leads to him being traded to a contender or locking down a more consistent role with the Pirates is still unclear.

Middle of the order

Batting clean up for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2021 will likely be Colin Moran. Following the Bell trade, Moran is the best and most consistent power hitter on the Pirate roster. Seeing that Moran’s best season resulted in 13 home runs, this isn’t a great sign for the Pirates – who might honestly set a record for the fewest home runs hit in an MLB season in 2021.

However, there is a good chance that Moran is successful in the role of clean up hitter for the Pirates. Moran has always shown decent doubles power and in 2020 increased his ISO to .225. In addition, Moran has shown the ability to hit well with runners in scoring position. During the 2019 season Moran hit .328 with RISP.

With Bell out of the picture, Moran should have his first season as a Pirate where he doesn’t need to worry about being platooned. The Pirates really don’t have any other viable first base options and Moran should start every day. Signed through 2023, Moran will most likely be playing for the opportunity to be traded to a contender as he doesn’t really fit into the Pirate rebuild time frame.

Much like Moran, Gregory Polanco will get the 5th spot in the Pirates lineup because he is the best that they have for 2021. He has the potential to hit 15-20 home runs in a season, potentially more, which is honestly something that no one else has the potential to do on the roster other than Moran.

For numerous reasons, Polanco had a rough 2020 season, but this has become the normal for one of the worst signings in recent Pirate history. He also suffered a broken wrist this offseason in the Dominican Republic. The Pittsburgh Pirates will sit Polanco in the five spot and hope that he has a season that resembles his 2018 performance. In his 2018 season, Polanco hit 23 home runs, had a .245 ISO and a career high .340 on-base percentage.

If Polanco does manage to string together a half season that resembles 2018, he will most likely be quickly traded at the 2021 trade deadline. With club options in 2022 and 2023, Polanco’s value to the Pirate rebuild is purely in trade value.

If Polanco continues to struggle and hit in the mid .100s as he did in 2020, I fully expect him to be designated for free agency the moment the Pirates are ready to promote any outfield prospects to the MLB level. My hope is that Polanco is able to stay healthy and is rewarded with a chance to play in the postseason with another club after a trade that bolsters the Pirate farm system.

Bottom of the lineup

Catcher Jacob Stallings provides the Pittbsurgh Pirates with a solid professional at-bat game after game. However, without outstanding speed or power, Stallings will most likely find himself batting 6th for the Pirates to start 2021. Stallings put together a second solid season in 2020, slashing for .248/.326/.376, following a breakout 2019 season when he hit for a line of .262/.325/.382. He will now look to build upon his strong 2020 with a strong 2021.

Sadly, Stallings will become a free agent in 2025 and it is unclear what another solid offensive and defensive season would mean for the catcher. There is a strong argument to be made for extending Stallings. However, an equally strong argument could be made for trading him if the catcher market is robust enough come the trade deadline.

Either way, Stallings will enter the season as the Pirates’ everyday catcher and my main hope is that he continues to provide professional at bats, extraordinary leadership, and fantastic defense to support the young pitching staff.

Cole Tucker will enter his third season at the Big League level in 2021 and will most likely slot in at the 7th spot as the team’s shortstop. One of the biggest complaints of the Pirate fanbase recently has been Tucker’s lack of playing time at the shortstop position. With a fresh season ahead of them, I expect Shelton and Cherington will be committed to giving Tucker the reigns at short and at an every day starting role in the lineup. As a former first-round pick that did show promise throughout the minors, it would surprise me if Cherington didn’t make it a priority to see what the young gun can do.

Since Tucker doesn’t hit free agency until 2026, there is a wide range of outcomes for Tucker and his future place in the Pirate organization. In 2021, Tucker doesn’t run a high risk of being traded or losing his spot on the Pirate roster – so I am mainly looking for him to establish a good offensive rhythm and to put up a stellar defensive campaign.

Rounding out the Pirate lineup will most likely be the inhabitant of center field. The two most likely candidates (let’s pray that Tucker is not a third in the conversation) are Anthony Alford and Jared Olivia. Alford was a waiver target by Cherington and was clearly a highly regarded player by the new general manager. Cherington was part of the Blue Jay organization that drafted Alford, so there is a good chance that Cherington knows what he is getting with Alford and has high expectations.

Sadly, Alford had a shortened Pirate debut and only played in five games before fracturing his elbow. It is fully expected that the young player will have his first full Big League season with the Pirates next season and could get an opening day start with a strong Spring Training performance. My hope is that Alford is able to put together a solid season and carve out a role in the Pirate outfield rotation throughout the rebuild.

Olivia is a rather underrated prospect for the Pirates and will play a large part in the Pirate outfield rotation in 2021. In 2020, Olivia had a rough Pirates debut, collecting only three hits over six games. However, in the minors Olivia was a good contact hitter with a career .274 batting average and a solid OBP of .348. Olivia’s X-factor is his speed. If Olivia was to start and hit leadoff for the Pirates, he would be a threat to steal 40 bags in one season.

My expectation for Olivia is that he will bat towards the bottom of the order until he can replicate his minor league OBP at the MLB level. As the season progresses, if things go well for Olivia, he could easily be moved up in the batting order to take better advantage of his speed. It would be a win for both the Pirates and Olivia if the young prospect could manage to stay on the Big League roster for the entire 2021 season.

That officially rounds out my projection and analysis of the potential Pirate Opening Day starting lineup! Obviously, there are still some question marks, but the majority of the lineup will be younger player looking to establish themselves as Big League regulars. While this won’t result in a postseason appearance, it will still be exciting to follow the development of a lot of these young and dynamic players.

Let’s go Bucs!