Pittsburgh Pirates: Expectations For 2021 Starting Lineup

As the Pittsburgh Pirates wrap up their offseason moves we will take an early look at what should be a pretty set in stone starting lineup. What will these players be looking to achieve in the rebuilding season?

EVen after the trade of Josh Bell, combined with the likely impending trade of Adam Frazier, the Pittsburgh Pirates will enter the 2021 season with a pretty predictable starting lineup. Unsurprisingly, this lineup will consist of mostly young, unproven players that will look to establish themselves as MLB regulars.

Let’s take a look at the predicted lineup and see what my expectations are for each player entering 2021. Assuming Frazier is traded before Opening Day, the Pirate starting lineup, agaisnt right-handed pitchers at least, should be similar to the following:

1. Kevin Newman
2. Ke’Bryan Hayes
3. Bryan Reynolds
4. Colin Moran
5. Gregory Polanco
6. Jacob Stallings
7. Cole Tucker
8. Anthony Alford/Jared Olivia
9. Pitcher

The leadoff spot is probably the most “up in the air spot” in the Pirate starting lineup entering 2021. In a short 2020 season the Pittsburgh Pirates used multiple players in the leadoff spot, with Erik Gonzalez drawing the majority of the starts (20 games). Even though Gonzalez found short stretches of success, his .241 batting average and two stolen bases over those 20 games, as well as his career numbers, should result in him playing a bench/utility role in 2021.

Instead of Gonzalez, the Pittsburgh Pirates will most likely try to re-discover the Newman of 2019 who hit .328 over 75 games from the leadoff spot. Adding to my confidence in this assumption is Newman’s contract status. Newman is under contract through 2024 (two more years than Gonzalez), making him an important player for general manager Ben Cherington and his staff to evaluate.

Since the Pittsburgh Pirates will need to figure out if Newman has any trade value, is worth signing, or is a DFA candidate, they will give him every opportunity to succeed in 2021. My goal for Newman is that he puts together a solid offensive year where he increases his ISO and hard contact rate. Whether this leads to him being traded to a contender or locking down a more consistent role with the Pirates is still unclear.

The two and three spots

The second spot in the lineup could be the most exciting spot for Pirate fans in 2021, as it could be occupied by rookie phenom Ke’Bryan Hayes. After being called up in September of the 2020 season, Hayes started a few games in the seven spot for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

It didn’t take long though for manager Derek Shelton to realize that Hayes needed to be hitting higher in the order. After moving Hayes to the two spot, he went on to hit .442/.510/.767 over a 12 game stretch. There is little doubt in my mind that Hayes should be a lock to continue hitting in the two after posting those numbers.

Hayes is the only player on the current roster that should be a lock for being part of the next winning Pirate team. My goal for Hayes is to see a solid year of growth and development at the Big League level – while maintaining his outstanding glovework.

Third in the lineup could then be outfielder Bryan Reynolds who struggled at the plate in 2020, slashing  .189/.275/.357/.632. On a better team, Reynolds might be forced to earn back a spot at the top of the lineup. But the reality is Reynolds is arguably the best pure hitter on the current Pirate roster. In 2019 he put up considerably better numbers, slashing .314/.377/.503/.880 while batting predominantly within the top three spots in the lineup.

Much like Newman, Reynolds is in an interesting spot contract-wise for the Pirates. Signed through 2025, Reynolds provides Cherington with a wide range of options during a multi-year rebuild. Cherington will want to see as much of Reynolds as possible in 2021 to determine if the 2019 Reynolds can resurface. My hope is that Reynolds can replicate some of his 2019 magic and forces Cherington to consider making Reynolds part of the winning club through an offseason contract extension.

Bottom of the lineup

Catcher Jacob Stallings provides the Pittbsurgh Pirates with a solid professional at-bat game after game. However, without outstanding speed or power, Stallings will most likely find himself batting 6th for the Pirates to start 2021. Stallings put together a second solid season in 2020, slashing for .248/.326/.376, following a breakout 2019 season when he hit for a line of .262/.325/.382. He will now look to build upon his strong 2020 with a strong 2021.

Sadly, Stallings will become a free agent in 2025 and it is unclear what another solid offensive and defensive season would mean for the catcher. There is a strong argument to be made for extending Stallings. However, an equally strong argument could be made for trading him if the catcher market is robust enough come the trade deadline.

Either way, Stallings will enter the season as the Pirates’ everyday catcher and my main hope is that he continues to provide professional at bats, extraordinary leadership, and fantastic defense to support the young pitching staff.

Cole Tucker will enter his third season at the Big League level in 2021 and will most likely slot in at the 7th spot as the team’s shortstop. One of the biggest complaints of the Pirate fanbase recently has been Tucker’s lack of playing time at the shortstop position. With a fresh season ahead of them, I expect Shelton and Cherington will be committed to giving Tucker the reigns at short and at an every day starting role in the lineup. As a former first-round pick that did show promise throughout the minors, it would surprise me if Cherington didn’t make it a priority to see what the young gun can do.

Since Tucker doesn’t hit free agency until 2026, there is a wide range of outcomes for Tucker and his future place in the Pirate organization. In 2021, Tucker doesn’t run a high risk of being traded or losing his spot on the Pirate roster – so I am mainly looking for him to establish a good offensive rhythm and to put up a stellar defensive campaign.

Rounding out the Pirate lineup will most likely be the inhabitant of center field. The two most likely candidates (let’s pray that Tucker is not a third in the conversation) are Anthony Alford and Jared Olivia. Alford was a waiver target by Cherington and was clearly a highly regarded player by the new general manager. Cherington was part of the Blue Jay organization that drafted Alford, so there is a good chance that Cherington knows what he is getting with Alford and has high expectations.

Sadly, Alford had a shortened Pirate debut and only played in five games before fracturing his elbow. It is fully expected that the young player will have his first full Big League season with the Pirates next season and could get an opening day start with a strong Spring Training performance. My hope is that Alford is able to put together a solid season and carve out a role in the Pirate outfield rotation throughout the rebuild.

Olivia is a rather underrated prospect for the Pirates and will play a large part in the Pirate outfield rotation in 2021. In 2020, Olivia had a rough Pirates debut, collecting only three hits over six games. However, in the minors Olivia was a good contact hitter with a career .274 batting average and a solid OBP of .348. Olivia’s X-factor is his speed. If Olivia was to start and hit leadoff for the Pirates, he would be a threat to steal 40 bags in one season.

My expectation for Olivia is that he will bat towards the bottom of the order until he can replicate his minor league OBP at the MLB level. As the season progresses, if things go well for Olivia, he could easily be moved up in the batting order to take better advantage of his speed. It would be a win for both the Pirates and Olivia if the young prospect could manage to stay on the Big League roster for the entire 2021 season.

That officially rounds out my projection and analysis of the potential Pirate Opening Day starting lineup! Obviously, there are still some question marks, but the majority of the lineup will be younger player looking to establish themselves as Big League regulars. While this won’t result in a postseason appearance, it will still be exciting to follow the development of a lot of these young and dynamic players.

Let’s go Bucs!