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The 2021 PECOTA projected standings have been released all across baseball. The Pittsburgh Pirates are projected to finish in last place.
The Pittsburgh Pirates are coming off a last place finish in which they will receive the first overall pick in 2021. The club saw promising results from Ke’Bryan Hayes in September, where he posted a .376/.442/.682 line with plus defense. He was a bright spot for the Pirates, who have since traded away Josh Bell, Joe Musgrove, and Jameson Taillon. While FanGraphs had projected the National League central to have no teams above .500, they did project a last place finish for. the Pittsburgh Pirates.
PECOTA, Baseball Prospectus’ version of a projection system, has released their 2021 standings. They have the Pirates in last place in the National League at 61 wins, only one game better than the Colorado Rockies for the worst in baseball. For the Pirates, this represents a chance to continue to add to their farm system with a likely top pick in the 2022 MLB Draft. The organization is in the midst of the rebuild, and can use all the talent they can get, which a projected last place finish puts the franchise in a position to do this.
In terms of player projections, JT Brubaker projects as an above average starting pitcher at a 96 DRA- and 4.28 ERA. Former top prospect Mitch Keller projects for a 4.58 ERA in 129 innings. For the club to take a step forward in the future, Keller needs to pitch better than a league average starting pitcher. Trade candidates Steven Brault and Chad Kuhl project at a 5.08 ERA and 4.73 ERA respectively.
The Pirates bullpen has some interesting pieces, as Richard Rodriguez projects for a 3.32 ERA and along with Chris Stratton, Kyle Crick, Michael Feliz, David Bednar, Sam Howard and Austin Davis all project for at least an above average DRA.
On the hitters side, Ke’Bryan Hayes projects at .254/.327/.414 with Bryan Reynolds at .251/.326/.430 and a team leading 2.2 WARP. Adam Frazier is the only other projected average hitter, with a projection of .265/.336/.416 and 2.1 WARP. The Pirates second baseman has seen his name in trade rumors and he projects as a league average player.
Overall, the Pittsburgh Pirates are facing a tough road ahead of them in 2021, with another likely first overall pick in 2022. The biggest keys for the Pirates is seeing Reynolds rebound and Keller to develop into a top of the rotation arm while letting the prospects continue to develop.