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Pittsburgh Pirates: Three Bold Predictions For 2021

By Noah Wright |
PITTSBURGH, PA - SEPTEMBER 24: Colin Moran #19 of the Pittsburgh Pirates rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run in the first inning during the game against the Chicago Cubs at PNC Park on September 24, 2020 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images)
PITTSBURGH, PA - SEPTEMBER 24: Colin Moran #19 of the Pittsburgh Pirates rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run in the first inning during the game against the Chicago Cubs at PNC Park on September 24, 2020 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images)
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Aug 4, 2020; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates third baseman Phillip Evans (64) hits a RBI single during the ninth inning against the Minnesota Twins at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 4, 2020; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates third baseman Phillip Evans (64) hits a RBI single during the ninth inning against the Minnesota Twins at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports /

Baseball is just around the corner, so I wanted to make a few bold predictions as to what happens to the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2021.

As weird as the past year has been baseball is just around the corner. We’re in the final stretch of the offseason and we will start see baseball again later this month. This upcoming season for the Pittsburgh Pirates will be an interesting one to watch. While they’re not going to be contenders, we could see many of their young players eventually make it to the bigs.

However, like many fans, I want to make a few bold predictions as to what could happen throughout this next year. 2021 could be a big season for this rebuild and some weird stuff could happen. So let’s get into my first bold prediction for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2021.

Phillip Evans Becomes The Regular Second Baseman

Right now, Adam Frazier is on track to start at second base for the Pittsburgh Pirates. However, general manager Ben Cherington has heavily shopped him around all winter and even if he is still the Bucs’ primary second baseman to start the year, he likely will get traded at some point, especially if he gets off to a hot start.

If and/or when Frazier is traded, the Pittsburgh Pirates will likely turn to Kevin Newman to man second base. On the surface, Newman isn’t a bad candidate to take over regular duties at second. He hit pretty well during his rookie campaign posting a solid .308/.353/.446 line, .339 wOBA and 109 wRC+ in 531 plate appearances.

However, there’s a lot of concern with Newman’s bat once you look deeper into it. Newman’s career average exit velocity is just 85.1 MPH compared to the league average mark of 88.3 MPH. He also has posted a sub-25% hard hit rate in the past two seasons, including in 2019. The league average rate? 34.9%.

It also doesn’t help that he hits a ground ball nearly 50% of the time. He did have a workable .138 isolated slugging mark duing his rookie campaign, but his career minor league ISO was .100 showing that he was taking advantage of the juiced ball.

Newman heavily struggled in 2020 having just a .254 wOBA and 54 wRC+. He also isn’t a great defender at shortstop and struggled with the leather at the keystone as well in 2020. While he doesn’t strike out often, he barely walks either. Plus he only has an OPS of .734 at Triple-A.

On the other hand, you have utility man Phillip Evans. Evans was signed by the Pittsburgh Pirates last offseason to a minor league deal and looked great in 2020. In 45 plate appearances, Evans collected 14 hits, three of which went for extra bases. He also had a strong 5/7 BB/K ratio. Evans has always had the talent to be a good hitter as he put up a .276/.356/.454 line at Triple-A in 1294 plate appearances.

Evans has plenty of experience at second base, having over 1300 professional innings logged at the position. Currently, Evans is set to open the year as the right-handed platoon partner for Colin Moran at first base while also serving as a utility man all around the field. However I think that he will continue hitting well in 2021 and with Newman’s struggles, he’ll overtake the primary role at second base.

Aug 13, 2020; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates third baseman Colin Moran (19) reacts as he rounds third base after hitting a solo home run against the Cincinnati Redsduring the first inning at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 13, 2020; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates third baseman Colin Moran (19) reacts as he rounds third base after hitting a solo home run against the Cincinnati Redsduring the first inning at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports /

Colin Moran Fills The Power Void Josh Bell Leaves Behind

Speaking of Colin Moran, I think that his 2020 power surge wasn’t just a fluke, but he can continue to build off of it. Moran’s first two years in Pittsburgh were average offensively and poor defensively. He was more of a contact hitter through 2018 and 2019, hitting .277/.331/.419 with a .319 wOBA and 98 wRC+ through his first 968 plate appearances in a Bucco uniform. He didn’t show much power swatting just 24 home runs and posting a .142 isolated slugging percentage.

Then there was his defense at third base. Moran was not just the worst defender at his position, but one of the worst in all of baseball, regardless of position. Moran recorded -32 DRS, a -12.2 UZR/150 and -11.7 range runs above average at the hot corner. With star prospect Ke’Bryan Hayes looking to prove his 2020 wasn’t just a fluke, Moran will move over to the other side of the diamond.

Last season, Moran saw his power output rise significantly. In 200 plate appearances, Moran nearly hit half the total amount of home runs he had between 2018 and 2019, smacking 10 long balls. Overall, he hit .247/.325/.472 with a .340 wOBA, 113 wRC+ and .225 isolated slugging mark.

Moran demolished the baseball when he made contact posting a 91.9 MPH exit velo which was in the top 89th percentile. He also made hard contact 47.2% of the time which was in the top 86th percentile. Moran has an expected slugging percentage of .480 for the season while having an xBA that represents a near identical mark to his actual BA (.255) and xwOBA that nearly matches his actual wOBA (.336).

Moran clearly has the power to become a power hitter. I think that he takes that next step and can fill the power void that the Josh Bell trade is leaving behind. Last season, the Pittsburgh Pirates were among the worst teams in terms of power, but Moran can help boost those numbers.

Mar 12, 2020; Bradenton, Florida, USA; A general view of LECOM Park during the spring training home of the Pittsburgh Pirates against the Toronto Blue Jays . Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 12, 2020; Bradenton, Florida, USA; A general view of LECOM Park during the spring training home of the Pittsburgh Pirates against the Toronto Blue Jays . Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports /

Luis Oviedo Becomes A Long Term Building Block For The Bullpen

Rarely do Rule 5 Draft picks work out. Most of the time, it’s a low risk chance a team takes on a player who they eventually release or return sometime throughout the next season. It is not often a team will find a long term, highly reliable player, but I do think the Pittsburgh Pirates may have found one with right-handed pitcher Luis Oviedo.

Oviedo was picked by the New York Mets from the Cleveland Indians 9th pick in the draft, but was quickly shipped off to Pittsburgh. Despite being traded, Oviedo still retains Rule 5 draft status. During his 2019 season, the right-hander pitched with the Indians’ Single-A team putting up a 5.38 ERA, 4.41 FIP and 1.379 WHIP in 87 innings. While the right-hander did struggle, it was only a year ago he put up much better numbers and even reached some top 100 prospect lists.

In the season prior, Oviedo had a 2.05 ERA, 2.44 FIP and 0.98 WHIP in 57 innings at Low-A and High-A. To go with his good bottom line numbers, he also had a 29.9% strikeout rate, 7.6% walk rate and 0.5 HR/9. This earned him the 93rd spot on Baseball America’s top 100 prospects lists to start 2020.

Ovideo’s fastball works in the 90-94 MPH range, but he has been clocked in the upper-90’s, peaking at 98 MPH. It’s a pitch that could be a 60-grade pitch according to FanGraphs. His secondary pitch is a curveball. This is a 55-grade offering according to Pipeline. His curveball saw major improvements in 2019 and his change-up showed a decent amount of potential before that. He’ll also throw a slider, which is another pitch that is seen as an average to above average pitch.

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A move to the bullpen would help Oviedo’s stuff play up. He may see a small uptick in velcoity while a potential improvement to his breaking pitches. He’s going into his age-22 season and I think he could eventually find himself in talks to be one of the Pirates’ late inning arms by the end of 2021.

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