Pittsburgh Pirates: Projecting the Starting Rotation Entering Spring Training

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OAKLAND, CA – SEPTEMBER 20: Tyler Anderson #31 of the San Francisco Giants pitches during the game against the Oakland Athletics at RingCentral Coliseum on September 20, 2020 in Oakland, California. The Giants defeated the Athletics 14-2. (Photo by Michael Zagaris/Oakland Athletics/Getty Images) /

Throughout the offseason the potential starting rotation of the Pittsburgh Pirates has been in flux. Now with Spring Training upon us, and a recent free agent signing in the bag, let’s take yet another stab at projecting the team’s Opening Day starting rotation

Tuesday afternoon pitchers and catchers reported to Spring Training for the Pittsburgh Pirates. That same day, the team signed left-handed starting pitcher Tyler Anderson to a one-eyar, $2.5 M contract for the 2021 season.

With Anderson in the fold the Pittsburgh Pirates now have needed rotation help. After trades of Joe Musgrove and Jameson Taillon earlier this offseason, even with some of the players that were brought in, the Pirates still found themselves with holes in the starting rotation. They were also in dire need of starting pitching depth, which is another area that the addition of Anderson will help as it makes their starting pitcher options deeper.

Even though pitchers and catchers have reported to Bradenton it is still possible that the Pirates trade another starting pitcher or two before the season begins. That said, with what the team currently has at their disposal we will take another stab at predicting their Opening Day starting rotation.

Sep 22, 2020; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Steven Brault (43) delivers a pitch against the Chicago Cubs during the first inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports /

The Locks

As was the case in the previous rotation projection, lefty Steven Brault and young rigthy Mitch Keller remain locks for the rotation.

Brault is coming off a career year in 2020 during which he posted a 3.38 ERA and a 3.92 FIP in 42.2 innings across 11 games (10 starts). While his 12.4% walk rate was a career high, so was his 21.3% strikeout rate. Brault also ranked in the 89th percentile in baseball in opponent exit velocity (85.8 MPH), 83rd in opponent barrel rate (4.4%) and the 76th percentile in opponent hard hit rate (32.7%).

The run of success Brault is on dates back to May 2019. In his last 30 games, 27 starts, Brault has logged 139.2 innings for the Pittsburgh Pirates. He has posted a 4.19 ERA, 4.24 FIP, 0.77 HR/9, 10.9% walk rate and a 19.8% strikeout rate, all very respectable numbers for a middle-to-back of the rotation arm.

Unfortunately, entering the 2021 season, Brault sits at the top of the rotation for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

As for Keller, this is the most important season of the former top 25 overall prospect’s career. Keller has made 16 career MLB starts, posting a 5.81 ERA and a 4.30 FIP in 69.2 innings pitched. While his career 25.8% strikeout rate is strong, it plummeted from 28.6% in 2019 to 18.4% in 2020. Additionally, his walk rate rose from 7.0% to an abysmal 20.7%.

After a .475 batting average on balls in play, literally the highest in MLB history for a pitcher with atl east 40 innings pitched, led to a 7.13 ERA in 2019, an unsustainably low .104 BAbip led to a 2.91 ERA in 2020. His Deserved Run Average these two seasons were 4.18 and 7.06.

If he is ever going to reach his full potential and once sky high expectations, it may be now or never for Keller in 2021.

Newly signed left-handed starter Tyler Anderson is also a lock to be in the Opening Day starting rotation. If Anderson can pitch well for the Pittsburgh Pirates then he should turn into a hot trade commodity come July.

If he is not traded, Chad Kuhl will also be locked into the starting day rotation. That said, a Kuhl trade should not be ruled out just yet. However, with pitchers and catchers now in Bradenton the odds of a Kuhl trade do appear to be dwindling.

Other than Keller, Kuhl has the highest ceiling of these four pitchers. Due to this it may behoove the Pirates to hold onto Kuhl for now to see if he can start to reach this potential and really boost his trade value, or potentially even pitch his way into being a building block piece for the Bucs.

CLEVELAND, OH – SEPTEMBER 27: JT Brubaker #65 of the Pittsburgh Pirates pitches during the game against the Cleveland Indians at Progressive Field on September 27, 2020 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Kirk Irwin/Getty Images) /

Battle For The Final Spot

Prior to the Pittsburgh Pirates signing Anderson earlier this week, both JT Brubaker and Wil Crowe appeared to be on their way to cracking the Opening Day starting rotation. Now, these two may find themselves battling it out for the final rotation spot.

Both Brubaker and Crowe made their MLB debuts in 2020. The Pirates acquired Crowe in the Josh Bell trade and appear to be high on the potential of his curveball. While Brubaker had the better results of the two in 2020, Crowe only pitched in three games for the Washington Nationals.

It is likely that both Brubaker and Crowe will be on the Opening Day roster with one earning a spot in the starting rotation with the other pitching out of the bullpen. Due to his better results in 2020 and potentially higher ceiling as a starting pitcher, Brubaker may enter Spring Training with a leg up in the race for the final rotation spot.

Righty Cody Ponce, as well as fellow righty Miguel Yajure will likely be given an opportunity in Spring Training to win this final rotation spot as well. However, odds are both will start the season in the rotation at Triple-A Indianapolis. Ponce projects as more of a bullpen swing arm in the Majors, while the Pirates will likely want to see Yajure get some work in the minors.

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The newly acquire Yajure is one of the top pitching prospects in the organization and the 113th best prospect in baseball according to FanGraphs. Due to this, the Pirates will likely want to keep Yajure at the Triple-A level until they believe he is 100% MLB ready.

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Throughout the offseason the potential starting rotation of the Pittsburgh Pirates has been in flux. Now with Spring Training upon us, and a recent free agent signing in the bag, let’s take yet another stab at projecting the team’s Opening Day starting rotation

The Locks

Battle For The Final Spot

Schedule