Pittsburgh Pirates: Potential Pitchers for the Final Rotation Spot

Wil Crowe

Wil Crowe is an interesting option for the 5th spot for several reasons, and in my opinion, he and one other have the most legitimate shot at getting the 5th spot. There’s no question that Crowe struggled during his three starts in 2020. Opponents had a hard hit rate of 44.8%, he posted a WHIP of 1.57 and an xFIP of 7.75.

Crowe was due for a change of scenery, if you ask me. I’m very curious to see how Oscar Marin handles this 26-year-old hurler from Tennesee. Marin seems to preach analytics, and I think this approach can help a guy like Crowe tremendously.

One thing I want to mention is I think Crowe has the potential to be a mid-rotation guy. His fastball sits around 92-93. His change up has a 55 value, curveball has a 55 future value, and he has a decent slider. His one major concern is walks. In just 8.1 innings pitched last season he walked eight batters which is why FanGraphs has his command at a 45 future value.

Crowe came to the Pittsburgh Pirates as part of the Josh Bell trade. Entering the 2020 season, the right-handed pitcher was a top 5 prospect in the Washington Nationals’ farm system. There is no denying that the talent is there for Crowe, he just needs to harness it.

JT Brubaker

Right-handed pitcher JT Brubaker has pitched successfully as a starting pitcher in the Majors. In fact, he did just that last season. Opposing batters hit for an average exit velocity off of Brubaker of 87.1 MPH, which was below MLB average. The hard hit rate was at 32.8%, which needs to improve, and his xFIP was 4.14, which is a little too high for my taste. Despite being 27, this will just be Brubaker’s second season in the Majors, and honestly, I’m not sure how to feel about that.

Brubaker has shown flashes of brilliance, like in his debut against the Cardinals, where he struck out four in 2 innings of work. In this outing, he showcased his plus slider. Overall, Brubaker finished the season with a 4.94 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 8.3% walk rate and a 23.4% strikeout rate.

To be honest with you, I like Brubaker better in the bullpen as a setup guy or possibly a long reliever, but I will admit Brubaker very well could be a starter. He and Crowe are the two front runners, in my opinion.

If Brubaker can maintain his command and continue that very good strikeout rate of 23.4%, we could be seeing him out there every 5th day until a certain pitcher or two is called up. (I’m saving those names for later.)

Cody Ponce

Right-hander Cody Ponce is a dark horse candidate for this role, and I think he’s a little under the radar, which I like. Ponce started in three of his five appearances during the 2020 season and showed us a little bit of everything. We know that Ponce will give you his four-seam, curve and cutter more times than not with all three above 23% usage.

Statcast gave him some interesting comparisons to guys like Jordan Lyles and Ponce De Leon due to them having similar stuff. In 17.0 innings pitched last Ponce limited opponents t just a .200 batting average while posting a 1.06 WHIP. Overall, Ponce showed promise, but he may be destined for a bullpen role just like Brubaker.

Ponce did have some deceiving numbers, and it may show that he was more of a lucky pitcher last year more than anything, but again, he only pitched 17 innings, so it’s hard to tell. His ERA and his xFIP have two completely different outcomes: his ERA at 3.18 and his xFIP at 5.67. He had 16 hard hit events, which means the exit velocity was 95 MPH or higher, so maybe he was lucky, maybe not. 2021 will tell more of the tale for Ponce.

Miguel Yajure

This is more of a reality further down in the year than it is on opening week, but crazier things have happened, and if there is an injury, I think Miguel Yajure is a good candidate. Yajure was acquired through the Tailon trade from the New York Yankees, and Yajure, as of now, was the biggest part of that trade.

Yajure spent the 2020 season on the Yankee taxi squad and even made three appearances for them at the age of 22. Now I know last year was an anomaly, but there has to be something said at a 22-year-old pitching for the Yankees, pandemic or not. He did have his issues, so I think he will spend the beginning of the season in the minors to work out some kinks. We have to remember he went from Double-A to the Majors.

Despite Yajure’s 1.29 ERA, his xFIP tells a different tale which stood at 5.41. Another concerning stat for Yajure was his hard hit rate which stood at a frightening 73.3%, along with an average exit velo at 94.6 MPH. These numbers are quite concerning, but I think most of this is due to nerves and being only 22. They also came in a very, very small sample size.

If you look at his 2019 stats, he was extremely impressive in high A with 127.2 innings pitched, 2.26 ERA, 2.88 xFIP, .214 opponent BA, and a WHIP of 1.00. This kid has the stuff, and I fully expect him to make an impact this year, just unsure if it will be at the beginning or the middle of the year.

Cody Bolton

This one is an extreme long shot, and a lot of injuries would have to happen for Cody Bolton to be the 5th starter at the beginning of the season. Bolton, however, is very close to the Major League level, and I expect both he and Yajure to be the first wave to the big club this year. Bolton, according to FanGraphs, is the 12th ranked Pirate prospect and is set to make his debut at some point this year.

Bolton in 2019 started in High-A and posted very impressive numbers in 12 starts. He had a 1.61 ERA, 2.46 xFIP, 10.07 K/9 and 2.04 BB/9. Opponents were held to a .173 average, and he posted a ridiculous 0.86 WHIP. His stuff is ranked rather well, too, with a 55 graded slider along with a 50 for control. The one issue that Bolton has is his health, and with a shoulder injury, you become a little apprehensive.

Here is FanGraphs Erc Longenhagen’s assessment of Bolton:

“Bolton had a strong start to his 2018 season before he was shut down in July with a shoulder issue and didn’t pitch for the rest of the summer. While a groin injury interrupted an otherwise healthy 2019, his stuff was wholly intact when he pitched, and his velocity was actually up a tick from the year before. He touched 97. He sat 86-90 as a rising high school senior but has since altered the timing of his arm swing for the better, and the resulting velo is fairly new, which makes Bolton’s cogent strike-throwing more impressive. He will also show you a plus slider and average changeup. Bolton’s stuff was down a tick at the alt site where he was maxing out at 95, often sitting just 91-92, and his arm action remains concerningly long. Because his delivery is somewhat grotesque and Bolton has had a shoulder problem, there’s apprehension about his health, but his ability to execute his sweeping breaking ball and tumbling changeup give him a No. 4/5 starter shot, and probably soon.”

Conclusion

It’s no secret the Pittsburgh Pirates are likely going to struggle this season. The main thing that Pirate fans should be concerned with is development, and the five pitchers I’ve mentioned will have plenty of eyeballs glued on them to see if they can continue to make progress for the better.

I’m extremely excited to see guys like Yajure, Brubaker, Ponce, Bolton and Crowe pitch this year. Competition is at the heart of every good season, and if you ask me, the pitching competition is going to be one of the more exciting things to watch this year.