Pittsburgh Pirates: Potential Pitchers for the Final Rotation Spot

With Opening Day quickly approaching we will take a look at the potential options the Pittsburgh Pirates have for the final spot in their starting rotation

Throughout the duration of Spring Training there will be several battles in camp for the Pittsburgh Pirates. One battle will be center field, another will be the middle of the infield. Another battle that we will discuss today is the final spot in the starting rotation.

I’m fully prepared to get the comments saying, “well, it’s the Pittsburgh Pirates aren’t they all 5th starters?” My favorite one is “We’re losing 120, so who the hell cares who the 5th starter is? He’s a bum anyway.” I just want you to know when I read things like this, it makes me chuckle. I get the bitterness towards the organization, trust me, but why are you still watching if you’re that bitter?

Anyways let’s get back to business, shall we? I think there are several options for that 5th rotation spot, and in this piece, I will give you those several options.

DISCLAIMER: These are my opinions, but if you have a better idea or think there’s a better option, let me know.

Wil Crowe

Wil Crowe is an interesting option for the 5th spot for several reasons, and in my opinion, he and one other have the most legitimate shot at getting the 5th spot. There’s no question that Crowe struggled during his three starts in 2020. Opponents had a hard hit rate of 44.8%, he posted a WHIP of 1.57 and an xFIP of 7.75.

Crowe was due for a change of scenery, if you ask me. I’m very curious to see how Oscar Marin handles this 26-year-old hurler from Tennesee. Marin seems to preach analytics, and I think this approach can help a guy like Crowe tremendously.

One thing I want to mention is I think Crowe has the potential to be a mid-rotation guy. His fastball sits around 92-93. His change up has a 55 value, curveball has a 55 future value, and he has a decent slider. His one major concern is walks. In just 8.1 innings pitched last season he walked eight batters which is why FanGraphs has his command at a 45 future value.

Crowe came to the Pittsburgh Pirates as part of the Josh Bell trade. Entering the 2020 season, the right-handed pitcher was a top 5 prospect in the Washington Nationals’ farm system. There is no denying that the talent is there for Crowe, he just needs to harness it.

JT Brubaker

Right-handed pitcher JT Brubaker has pitched successfully as a starting pitcher in the Majors. In fact, he did just that last season. Opposing batters hit for an average exit velocity off of Brubaker of 87.1 MPH, which was below MLB average. The hard hit rate was at 32.8%, which needs to improve, and his xFIP was 4.14, which is a little too high for my taste. Despite being 27, this will just be Brubaker’s second season in the Majors, and honestly, I’m not sure how to feel about that.

Brubaker has shown flashes of brilliance, like in his debut against the Cardinals, where he struck out four in 2 innings of work. In this outing, he showcased his plus slider. Overall, Brubaker finished the season with a 4.94 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 8.3% walk rate and a 23.4% strikeout rate.

To be honest with you, I like Brubaker better in the bullpen as a setup guy or possibly a long reliever, but I will admit Brubaker very well could be a starter. He and Crowe are the two front runners, in my opinion.

If Brubaker can maintain his command and continue that very good strikeout rate of 23.4%, we could be seeing him out there every 5th day until a certain pitcher or two is called up. (I’m saving those names for later.)

Cody Ponce

Right-hander Cody Ponce is a dark horse candidate for this role, and I think he’s a little under the radar, which I like. Ponce started in three of his five appearances during the 2020 season and showed us a little bit of everything. We know that Ponce will give you his four-seam, curve and cutter more times than not with all three above 23% usage.

Statcast gave him some interesting comparisons to guys like Jordan Lyles and Ponce De Leon due to them having similar stuff. In 17.0 innings pitched last Ponce limited opponents t just a .200 batting average while posting a 1.06 WHIP. Overall, Ponce showed promise, but he may be destined for a bullpen role just like Brubaker.

Ponce did have some deceiving numbers, and it may show that he was more of a lucky pitcher last year more than anything, but again, he only pitched 17 innings, so it’s hard to tell. His ERA and his xFIP have two completely different outcomes: his ERA at 3.18 and his xFIP at 5.67. He had 16 hard hit events, which means the exit velocity was 95 MPH or higher, so maybe he was lucky, maybe not. 2021 will tell more of the tale for Ponce.

Miguel Yajure

This is more of a reality further down in the year than it is on opening week, but crazier things have happened, and if there is an injury, I think Miguel Yajure is a good candidate. Yajure was acquired through the Tailon trade from the New York Yankees, and Yajure, as of now, was the biggest part of that trade.

Yajure spent the 2020 season on the Yankee taxi squad and even made three appearances for them at the age of 22. Now I know last year was an anomaly, but there has to be something said at a 22-year-old pitching for the Yankees, pandemic or not. He did have his issues, so I think he will spend the beginning of the season in the minors to work out some kinks. We have to remember he went from Double-A to the Majors.

Despite Yajure’s 1.29 ERA, his xFIP tells a different tale which stood at 5.41. Another concerning stat for Yajure was his hard hit rate which stood at a frightening 73.3%, along with an average exit velo at 94.6 MPH. These numbers are quite concerning, but I think most of this is due to nerves and being only 22. They also came in a very, very small sample size.

If you look at his 2019 stats, he was extremely impressive in high A with 127.2 innings pitched, 2.26 ERA, 2.88 xFIP, .214 opponent BA, and a WHIP of 1.00. This kid has the stuff, and I fully expect him to make an impact this year, just unsure if it will be at the beginning or the middle of the year.