2021 Pittsburgh Pirates Rum Bunter Staff Prediction: Noah Wright

Breakout Position Player: Colin Moran

Colin Moran showed potential in each of his first two seasons as a Pittsburgh Pirates, but never did it consistently. In 2019, he had a .339 wOBA, 109 wRC+ and .189 isolated slugging percentage in the first half of the season. In the second half of 2018, he had a .327 wOBA and 103 wRC+.

However, last season, Moran put on his best display of power yet. Through 200 plate appearances, the corner infielder hit .247/.325/.472 with 10 home runs, a .340 wOBA and 113 wRC+. He put up his best ISO yet at .225. In comparison to 2018-2019, Moran only had a .142 ISO and 24 home runs through 968 plate appearances.

Moran’s big power spike was because of a spike in hard it rate and exit velocity. Last year, he was in the top 89th percentile in exit velo with a 91.9 MPH mark and in the top 86th percentile of hard hit rate with a 47.2% mark.

Now Moran’s power output came at the cost of his ability to make contact with his batting average dropping from .277 to .247. This also caused a rise in his strikeout rate going from 20.6% between his first two seasons as a Pirate to 26% in 2020. But he did start walking more with a 9.5% walk rate compared to just 7.1% in the two years prior.

I believe that Moran will finally put it all together next year as the Pirates’ primary first baseman, hitting somewhere in the realm of .260/.340/.480 with 20-25 home runs. That would be similar production to the 2019 performances of Paul Goldschmidt and Christian Walker for a comparison.