Pittsburgh Pirates: Three Goals For The Starting Rotation This Season

Goal #2: Limit the Walks

While home runs are a large issue for pitchers, most games are not won by a score of 1-0. The damage of home runs can be limited by keeping runners off the bases. Sadly, in 2020, the Pittsburgh Pirates did a really poor job of keeping runners off of the bases.

If the home runs were the main issue for the starters in 2020, free passes, or walks, were right behind it in a close second. In 2020 Pirate starters led the league with 4.23 free passes per nine innings. That is nearly double the rate of the World Champion Los Angeles Dodgers.

Walks are potentially the most damning issue that a pitching staff can face. Walking a batter has a domino like effect that can lead to progressively worse and worse scenarios later on in the game. To begin with, walks lead to longer innings with higher pitch counts.

As this happens, starters will tire quicker and batters will be able to see more pitches and pick up on future pitches better. In addition, walks can force starters into pitching from the stretch instead of the windup, can push runners into scoring position, and can also be demoralizing for other teammates.

With all of this taken into consideration, a starting rotation that can limit walks will inevitably find more success. There are many ways that pitchers as a group and individually can limit walks, but here we will just briefly cover some starters that can improve their walk rates, leading to a more successful 2021.

The first pitcher that can have a large impact on lowing the starting staff’s walk rate is Mitch Keller. Keller had a far improved 2020 posting an ERA of 2.91, but did have some concerning underlying metrics. To start Keller’s walk rate was unsustainably high at 20.7%. Thankfully, Keller’s low batting average on balls in play (.104) partially counteracted this walk rate, but BAbip is typically a volatile metric and a high walk rate will eventually outweigh a low BAbip.

A second pitcher that could help lower the staff’s walk rate is Chad Kuhl. Kuhl should be a mainstay in the Pirate rotation for 2021 and will look to build on his 2020 season in which he returned from having Tommy John surgery. Kuhl’s arsenal of pitches is above average, but he struggled with his command in 2020 and posted a walk rate of 14.3%. If Kuhl can get his walk rate under control, he could easily post a sub-4.00 ERA for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2021.

Goal #3: Find an Ace

A successful starting rotation needs a pitcher who can step up to plate and win a big game. This could be a game that stops a losing streak, a game against an opposing ace, or even a playoff game. While the Pittsburgh Pirates do not figure to be in the playoff race in 2021, the staff should still look to establish and develop an ace that they can trust in big games. Without Joe Musgrove and Jameson Taillon, the ace role is currently wide open for the Pirates.

While there are potentially a few pitchers that could fill the role of an ace for the Pirates in 2021, the two players who are most likely to step up to the plate are Brault or Keller.

Brault is coming off the best season of his career and both surface level metrics and advanced metrics agree that it was a pretty good one. Over 10 starts in 2020, Brault pitched to a 3.38 ERA and a 3.92 FIP. Brault lowered his hard hit rate from 38.4% to 27.4% and his HR/FB rate from 13.2% to 5.9%. Perhaps most encouraging was Brault’s success against right-handed pitching, which has been a problem for him in a past. In 2020 right-handers slashed .190/.307/.246 against Brault compared to career numbers of .266/.361/.429.

Keller had a decent 2020 season that is hard to get a good read on due to injuries and poor underlying metrics that contradict his 2.91 ERA. Keller’s FIP was actually 6.75 and his SIERA was 6.94 – both of which would suggest an extremely lucky season. From the eye test, I think Keller’s ERA, FIP, and SIERA are all off in properly representing Keller’s 2020 performance. In reality Keller took a step forward in 2020 by pitching 212 innings, limiting damage with runners on base, and by keeping his BABIP low (.104). However, he also took a step back with substantial control issues, posting an extremely high 7.48 BB/9 and relatively low 6.65 K/9.

Going into 2021, both Keller and Brault have the potential to be great pitchers and also have the potential to post 5+ ERAs. For the Pirates starting rotation to be effective, both pitchers will need to pitch well and at least one of them will have to establish themselves as an ace.