Pittsburgh Pirates: Three Goals For The Starting Rotation This Season

The Pittsburgh Pirates are coming off of a terrible shortened 2020 season where they finished with the worst record in MLB. Almost every aspect of the team’s performance ranked at the bottom of the league, however, the starting pitchers did provide a few bright spots.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are entering the 2021 season with low expectations, but do have a group of young players that can provide some upside for the starting rotation. If this young rotation hits its stride in 2021, the group can easily rank in the middle of the pack of MLB starting rotations. Here are three goals for the starters that if met, will lead to some great 2021 results.

Goal #1: Limit the Home Runs

2019 was the year of the home run for MLB and 2020 wasn’t too far behind. Over 5% of baseballs that were thrown by starters and hit by batters across the league left the ball park. On average, this led to a HR/9 rate of 1.36 and a HR/FB rate of 15.8%, both numbers which rank easily towards the top of their respective categories in the annals of MLB history.

Home runs were arguably the largest problem for the Pittsburgh Pirates starters in 2020 as the group actually posted a decent ERA and good strikeout rates. The starters posted an ERA of 4.74, which was relatively close to league average and a K/9 rate of 8.78 which was above league average.

During the 2020 season the Pirate starting rotation ranked poorly in all home run related metrics. 19.3% of fly balls hit off of Pirate starting pitchers went for home runs in 2019 – well above the 15.8% league average rate. 19.3% was actually the second worst rate in the league.

The Pittsburgh Pirates did slightly better in the HR/9 inning category, giving up 1.69 home runs on average every nine innings. This was still above the league average, but at least the Pirates stayed out of the bottom five teams, ranking 6th in the metric.

So how can the Pittsburgh Pirates address the home run issue in 2021?

Well, part of the issue may have been solved with the offseason moves that the Pirates made. Derek Holland was a hopeful reclamation project acquisition by the Pirates in 2020. Sadly, Holland struggled tremendously with the Pirates and led the team in most home run related metrics. Holland posted a 3.42 HR/9 and a 29.4% HR/FB rate. Trevor Williams has always struggled with giving up home runs, but last year was especially rough. A 24.2% HR/FB rate and a 2.44 HR/9 put Williams right up there with Holland. With both Williams and Holland no longer with the Pirates, the starters will have a chance to limit opposing home runs more efficiently right out of the gate.

A second solution to the home run issue of 2020 is a repeat Steven Brault performance in 2021. Brault did a fantastic job in 2020 limiting opposing hitters from sending the ball into cutout filled bleachers. Brault posted a career low 5.9% HR/FB rate and a 0.42 HR/9. If some of the Pirates can take pointers from Brault and get the staff’s home run rates closer to league average than Oscar Marin should be extremely pleased.

Goal #3: Find an Ace

A successful starting rotation needs a pitcher who can step up to plate and win a big game. This could be a game that stops a losing streak, a game against an opposing ace, or even a playoff game. While the Pittsburgh Pirates do not figure to be in the playoff race in 2021, the staff should still look to establish and develop an ace that they can trust in big games. Without Joe Musgrove and Jameson Taillon, the ace role is currently wide open for the Pirates.

While there are potentially a few pitchers that could fill the role of an ace for the Pirates in 2021, the two players who are most likely to step up to the plate are Brault or Keller.

Brault is coming off the best season of his career and both surface level metrics and advanced metrics agree that it was a pretty good one. Over 10 starts in 2020, Brault pitched to a 3.38 ERA and a 3.92 FIP. Brault lowered his hard hit rate from 38.4% to 27.4% and his HR/FB rate from 13.2% to 5.9%. Perhaps most encouraging was Brault’s success against right-handed pitching, which has been a problem for him in a past. In 2020 right-handers slashed .190/.307/.246 against Brault compared to career numbers of .266/.361/.429.

Keller had a decent 2020 season that is hard to get a good read on due to injuries and poor underlying metrics that contradict his 2.91 ERA. Keller’s FIP was actually 6.75 and his SIERA was 6.94 – both of which would suggest an extremely lucky season. From the eye test, I think Keller’s ERA, FIP, and SIERA are all off in properly representing Keller’s 2020 performance. In reality Keller took a step forward in 2020 by pitching 212 innings, limiting damage with runners on base, and by keeping his BABIP low (.104). However, he also took a step back with substantial control issues, posting an extremely high 7.48 BB/9 and relatively low 6.65 K/9.

Going into 2021, both Keller and Brault have the potential to be great pitchers and also have the potential to post 5+ ERAs. For the Pirates starting rotation to be effective, both pitchers will need to pitch well and at least one of them will have to establish themselves as an ace.