Pittsburgh Pirates: Jared Oliva’s Potential Role for 2021

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a handful of center fielders capable players, but could Jared Oliva emerge as the regular answer before the end of the season?

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a handful of candidates gunning for a starting outfield role in 2021. Among them are Anthony Alford, Dustin Fowler, Brian Goodwin and Jared Oliva, who are battling for the team’s starting center field job.

Oliva is among the top 20 prospects in the Pirate farm system. Due to him being the lone player of this quartet with minor league options remaining, the odds of him starting the season at Triple-A Indianapolis are high. That said, could he have a starting role by the end of the season?

Currently there is no clear frontrunner for the last starting outfield role. Among all the candidates Goodwin has the most MLB experience. Goodwin was brought in on a minor league deal this offseason. He was originally a first-round pick by the Washington Nationals in 2011 and made his debut in 2016. However he was a pretty solid bat for the Los Angeles Angels the past season and a half.

Through 567 plate appearances, Goodwin put up a solid .258/.327/.469 line, a .211 isolated slugging percentage while slamming 21 home runs. All told, he had a .333 wOBA and 109 wRC+. Goodwin struggled during his time with the Cincinnati Reds after a trade deadline deal to the National League Central team last year, but overall he was still above average in terms of hard hit rate (top 69th percentile) and exit velocity (top 61st percentile). Defensively, nothing to write home about with -3 DRS, -5.1 UZR/150 and -3.6 range runs above average, but he is better in center field and right field than left field.

Both Fowler and Alford are former top 100 prospects. The Pittsburgh Pirates acquired Fowler just before the start of Spring Training for cash from the Oakland Athletics. Alford was acquired when the Pittsburgh Pirates claimed Alford off waivers from the Toronto Blue Jays.

Of the two, Alford was the more highly touted prospect, ranking as high as the 25th best prospect in baseball by Baseball America in 2016. Alford has done solid throughout the minors batting .258/.358/.398 with a .336 wOBA. His .358 on-base percentage pairs well with his elite speed. Last year, he was the 13th fastest runner in all of baseball. So far, he hasn’t been nearly as good in the majors with a .228 wOBA and 37 wRC+, but this is in less than 100 plate appearances. He hasn’t been given a shot to prove himself yet and 2021 could be that chance.

Fowler was once part of the blockbuster deal that sent Sonny Gray to the New York Yankees. The former prospect hasn’t played at the big league level since 2018 when he had a .263 wOBA and 67 wRC+ in 203 plate appearances. He spent all of 2019 at Triple-A where he turned in a solid .277/.333/.477 line and .341 wOBA, albeit with a 6.9% walk rate and 23.9% strikeout rate. Overall, he only had a 93 wRC+ given he played at the hyper-offense in the Pacific Coast League.

So what about Oliva?

Oliva was drafted by the Pittsburgh Pirates in the 7th round of the 2017 draft. The outfielder first made his presence known with his first full professional season. In 454 plate appearances with the Bucs’ High-A team, he put up a .277/.354/.424 line, had a .358 wOBA and 124 wRC+. Oliva had an above average strikeout rate of 20% rate to go with a solid 8.8% walk rate. His .354 OBP paired well with his great base running which helped him steal 33 bases in 41 attempts.

Oliva was promoted to Double-A in 2019 where he continued to put up solid numbers. He almost replicated his batting average, on base percentage and strikeout/walk numbers from the year prior. Oliva had a .277 BA, .352 OBP, 8.3% walk rate and 20.5% strikeout rate. However, he did see a drop in power. His slugging percentage dipped below .400 at .398 and his ISO went from .149 to just .121. Overall though, his .343 wOBA and 123 wRC+ are very close to his 2018 marks and he stole 36 bases in 46 attempts.

Oliva did make his debut in 2020, but only stepped to the plate 16 times, had just three hits, none of which went for extra bases and struck out 6 times with no walks. Not the best start to an MLB career, but still just 16 trips to the plate. Oliva was considered a plus fielder in the minors with some raw power potential. His average exit velocity was 88 MPH and hard hit rate was 41%. Oliva is also an extremely fast runner as evident by his 29 feet/second sprint speed, the 24th fastest mark in baseball last season.

However, Oliva has something that Goodwin, Alford and Fowler don’t have. That’s minor league options. He still has three remaining and a lot of the time, that’s the deciding factor as to who makes the major league roster out of Spring Training and who doesn’t.

Oliva may not make the major league roster out of camp, but I do believe that he’ll be one of the Pirates’ starting outfielders by the time summer rolls around. Fowler and Alford do bring some upside to the table and Goodwin showed some decent power the last couple of seasons. I think they’ll give Alford and Fowler semi-regular to regular playing time, but eventually will turn to Jared Oliva as one of the team’s starting outfielders.