Pittsburgh Pirates 2021 Rum Bunter Staff Preview: Marty Leap

2021 Pirate MVP – Ke’Bryan Hayes

This might be the easiest prediction to make for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2021. Ke’Bryan Hayes burst onto the scene last September hitting for a .376/.442/.682 slash line to go with a wRC+ of 195 in 95 plate appearances.

Hayes entered the 2020 season as one of the top 25-50 prospects in all of baseball. After his impressive MLB debut last season, he is now a top 10 prospect in baseball. Hayes has also already become the new face of the franchise for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Entering the 2021 season, Hayes is now ready to put himself on the map across all of MLB. Hayes is an elite defensive third baseman, as evident by his back-to-back minor league Gold Glove Awards in 2018 and 2019.

While the offense has not always been there for Hayes during his minor league career an above average exit velocity and hard hit rate were. Last season Hayes improved his ground ball issues that plagued him in the minors, while keep his above average exit velocity (92.8 MPH) and hard hit rate (55.4%).

Hayes has the tools needed to become the rare player who is an elite defender and an above average hitter. He also possesses plus speed and is a great base runner who could steal 15-20 bags a season. Hayes is a five-tool player at third base and already the Pirates’ best player. Not only will he be the team’s MVP this season, he may start to emerge as a potential future league MVP.

2021 Pirate Cy Young/Rookie of the Year – Miguel Yajure

Predicting the Cy Young of the 2021 Pittsburgh Pirates is no easy task. First off, the team figures to have one of the poorest starting rotations in the National League. Second, the team’s top two returning starting pitchers – Steven Brault and Chad Kuhl – were both mentioned in trade rumors during the offseason and could be traded by July’s trade deadline.

As we mentioned in the first slide, fans of the Pittsbugrh Pirates should see some of the team’s top prospects debut in 2021. One of the prospects mentioned was right-handed pitcher Miguel Yajure who was the headliner of the Jameson Taillon trade.

Yajure is a pitcher with a very bright future who could find himself at the top of the Pirate starting rotation by the end of the season. While Yajure will likely start the season at the team’s alternate training site in Altoona before joining the starting rotation at Triple-A Indianapolis, the 22-year-old righty will likely be in the starting rotation by June or July. From that point on, look for him to pitch better than any other Pirate pitcher.

As for the Pirate Rookie of the Year part, while, yes, Hayes is techinically ROY eligible, that pick seems like a bit of a cop out. Also, while both were small sample sizes Hayes’ was larger than Yajure’s last season, making Yajure more of a true rookie than Hayes is. This combined with high expectations for Yajure makes him my pick for the 2021 Pirate Rookie of the Year.

Best Position Group – Third Base

On a team like the 2021 Pittsburgh Pirates that is expected to be bad and has plenty of holes, the position that your best player plays will often times be the team’s best position group. This will be the case with the Pirates this season.

Even aside from Hayes, the Pittsburgh Pirates have some quality depth at third base. Veteran slugger Todd Frazier was added via a minor league contract prior to the start of Spring Training games.

Frazier is a former two-time All-Star and can still hit for power. Prior to last season’s COVID-19 shortened season, Frazier had never posted an isolated power below .176 and he has hit at least 18 home runs in each of his eight full MLB seasons.

So far this spring Frazier is 3-for-11 with two walks and two home runs. So all signs point toward his bat still playing. Additionally, throughout his MLB career Frazier has been a plus defender at the hot corner as well.

The star at third base, of course, is Hayes, though. During the 2021 season Hayes could very possibly develop into one of the best all-around third basemen in baseball. Combine this with having a veteran the quality of Frazier as the primary back up to Hayes makes third base a strong position for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Worst Position Group – Shortstop

The good news is the Pittsburgh Pirates have multiple options for the shortstop position this season. The bad news is, they may lack any good options. Due to this, shortstop will be the team’s worst position group this season.

With both Erik González and Kevin Newman performing well offensively, the battle at shortstop is starting to heat up. The problem is both players have plenty of question marks around their offensive abilities.

González owns a .250/.283/.362 slash line and a wRC+ of 68 in 624 MLB plate appearances. While Newman had a strong rookie campaign in 2019 his lifetime .278/.325/.384 slash line and 88 wRC+ are both below league average. Newman’s lifetime 85.1 MPH exit velocity, 24.8% hard hit rate and 1.7% barrel rate are all well below league average as well.

To go with his offensive struggles, Newman is also a poor defensive shortstop. While González is a plus defender at the position, his offense is far too poor to play on a daily basis at the Major League level.

Cole Tucker entered Spring Training in the mix at shortstop as well, but due to a thumb issue he has only appeared in one game. Tucker also has minor league options remaining, which makes it likely he will not start the roster on the active roster. Additionally, Tucker, like González, is a plus defender but very poor offensive player.

Thankfully, the Pittsburgh Pirates have plenty of shortstop talent in the farm system. The problem is, out side of potentially Oneil Cruz late in the season, none of these players will reach the Majors in 2021 making shortstop the team’s worst position this season.

2021 Pirate Breakout Player – Outfielder Dustin Fowler

Being the pick for 2021 Pirate Rookie of the Year, obviously, Yajure could have also been the pick for 2021’s breakout player. But for the sake of having both a breakout pitcher (Yajure) and hitter, this nod goes to outfielder Dustin Fowler.

Earlier this mont the Pittsburgh Pirates acquired Fowler from the Oakland A’s in exchange for cash considerations. On many teams Fowler would have gotten a look on the active roster to start the 2021 season, but with the A’s outfield being crowded it led to Fowler being designated for assignment and the Pirates swooping in.

Fowler is a former top 100 prospect who headlined the Sonny Gray trade during the 2017-2018 offseason. During the 2018 season Fowler got a short look with the A’s, hitting for a .224/.256/.354 slash line to go with a wRC+ of 67 in 203 plate appearances.

Then during the 2019 season Fowler hit well at the Triple-A level. That season, Fowler hit for a .277/.333/.477 slash line to go with a 93 wRC+. He hit 25 home runs, posted a .200 ISO and collected 54 extra base hits.

So far this spring Fowler is 2-for-8 with a double. He has seen time both at designated hitter and in the outfield. Fowler is currently competing with Anthony Alford, Brian Goodwin and Jared Oliva for the starting job in center field. Of these four players, Fowler has the highest ceiling of the three.

It appears that Fowler is a safe bet to crack the Opening Day roster. If the Pirates were not interested in Fowler and did not have plans for him on the Opening Day roster, odds are, they would not have acquired him when he was DFA’d. Especially with the team arleady have three other options for just two open spots (center field and fourth outfielder) on the roster in the outfield.

Fowler also remains under team control through the 2023 season. With a breakout season in 2021, Fowler could hit his way into being part of both the Pirates’ present and future. As Fowler gets his first extended look in the Majors this season, look for him to put together a breakout season with the Pittsburgh Pirates.

2021 Record Prediction – 64-98

The Pittsburgh Pirates will not be a good team. That said, as we have discussed, there are some exciting elements to this team and that will emerge for the ball club as the 2021 season progresses.

While it will be a rough season for the Pirates in terms of their record, look for the team to trending upward by the end of the season. Young players such as Ke’Bryan Hayes, Mitch Keller, Dustin Fowler and David Bednar continue to grow as MLB players, and assuming Bryan Reynolds bounces back this season, would go a long way in the team trneding upward at the end of the season.

Adding to this upward trajectory will be the debuts of prospects such as Cody Bolton and Miguel Yajure, young relievers such as Blake Cederlind, Blake Weiman and Nick Mears locking down full-tim spots in the bullpen, and top hitting prospects such as Travis Swaggerty and Oneil Cruz reaching the Majors.

Additionally, it will be fun to watch the highly touted Pirate farm system continue to grow and develop this season. Not only will the team’s prospects continue to develop and get closer to the Majors, but the Pirates will be able to add another wave of talent to the farm system via the draft, especially with owning the top overall pick. Ben Cherington should also be able to continue to add to the farm system with more trades of veterans such as a Adam Frazier, Chad Kuhl, Chris Stratton, Todd Frazier and Richard Rodriguez, among others, being a real possiblity during the season.

There is still a little ways to go. The Pittsburgh Pirates are still going to take their lumps and have some bad, bad moments. That said, there is light at the end of this rebuilding tunnel. By the end of the 2021 season, that light should be even brighter than it is now.