Pittsburgh Pirates: Mitch Keller Continues to Struggle on The Mound

The former Pittsburgh Pirates top pitching prospect, Mitch Keller, has struggled in his brief Major League career.  Yesterday, the right-hander continued to struggle.

The Pittsburgh Pirates drafted Mitch Keller in the second round of the 2014 Major League Baseball Draft and he blossomed into the club’s top pitching prospect once Tyler Glasnow graduated, and was considered the top prospect in the system entering 2020.  In his debut season of 2019, Keller pitched to a 7.13 ERA, but there was hope 202 would be better given the 3.19 FIP, 28.6 percent strikeout rate and 7.0 percent walk rate.  The underlying numbers were there and his fastball averaged 95.4 mph with 2473 RPM and his curveball had 2770 RPM.

However, in 2020, Keller reverted despite the 2.91 ERA, the right-handed had a 6.75 FIP, 18.4 percent strikeout rate, and 20.7 percent walk rate.  His fastball velocity fell to 93.9 mph with a spin rate of 2327 RPM, his curveball fell from 2770 RPM to 2601 and his slider fell from 2661 to 2425 RPM.  The slider is now below average in spin and his stuff isn’t as good.

After a Spring start where he lasted two innings but allowed eight runs on 10 hits, one walk and three home runs.  Part of this is again because of his spin rates.  So far this Spring, Keller’s fastball has a spin rate of 2372 at 95.8 mph and his curveball 2638 RPM.  His stuff is falling and it is more average than it was before.  There is less bite and rotations, despite the velocity coming back.

Compare this to Chad Kuhl, for example, who has a high spin curveball (2777 RPM) and slider (2516 RPM).  Kuhl’s pitches get more movement and he’s more likely to miss bats and get strikeouts.  This decline in spin rate and stuff has led to worse results for Keller and the trend from 2020 is continuing.  As a result, Keller’s stuff is more hittable than other pitchers especially with the command he showed last season.

Mitch Keller’s pitchers are more hittable than some of the other pitcher’s on the team, seen in the decline in the spin rates, which are now more average than the plus they showed.  While the underlying numbers were strong in 2019, they backed up in 2020 and look to have continued so far in 2021. The new coaching staff has made a lot of strides with a lot of the young pitcher by focusing on spin rate.  For whatever reason, Keller has not been able to take his pitches to that next level. Maybe we should just once again thank the old regime….