Pittsburgh Pirates: Setting Expectations For 2021 Season

With the start of the 2021 regular season just around the corner, what are some expectations we can set for this Pittsburgh Pirates team?

Opening Day is just around the corner and, hopefully, we get to watch a full, 162 game season of baseball. Sure, there’s going to be some rules MLB is trying out, some of which I am not a huge fan of, but regardless, regular season baseball will be back very soon. With that comes another season of Pittsburgh Pirates baseball. So what are some expectations we can set for this upcoming season?

For one, we should not be expecting a good team, obviously, but not as bad as many are suggesting. Some people have suggested that this is a 120 loss team. That would make the 2021 Pittsburgh Pirates the second worst MLB team ever assembled, trailing the 134-loss 1899 Cleveland Spiders and 1962 New York Mets who had 120 losses.

Now sure, they traded Jameson Taillon, Josh Bell and Joe Musgrove. However, Taillon has pitched 150 innings just a single time in his career, missed most of 2019 and all of 2020, and will be coming back from his second Tommy John surgery. Bell has been extremely inconsistent throughout his career and has a career bWAR and fWAR below 5 in well over 500 career games in the MLB. Out of the three major trades, Musgrove had the highest chance of making a large impact with the team, however one player isn’t going to be a game changer in the sport of baseball.

You also have to consider the division. This National League Central division is going to be a very tight race simply because all four other teams could finish right around .500. The Chicago Cubs, St. Louis Cardinals, Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds all have major holes in their rosters. The Pittsburgh Pirates may be just as bad as the Colorado Rockies, Baltimore Orioles and Texas Rangers on paper, but each of those teams have multiple juggernaut’s in their division.

The Rockies will have to face the World Series winning Los Angeles Dodgers and massively improved San Diego Padres. The Orioles have to play the New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays. The Rangers will play the Los Angeles Angels, Oakland Athletics, Houston Astros and possibly even the Seattle Mariners.

I predicted this team to finish with a 67-95 record. I stand by that prediction for another expectation for the Bucs this season. I expect to start seeing the arrival of young players and production from some of them. Ke’Bryan Hayes won’t keep up his 11 WAR pace from 2020, but I still think he will be Rookie Of The Year candidate and maybe even get some MVP votes. Bryan Reynolds has looked like he’s ready to bounce back after a rough season with the bat in 2020. Kevin Newman is starting to drive the ball with authority, one of the biggest knocks on him previously. They’ll also have some young pitchers in Wil Crowe, Miguel Yajure, and Cody Bolton, all of whom may have locked down rotation spots by the end of the season. For his sake, hopefully, Mitch Keller has a more normal season. Don’t forget about the bullpen with Luis Oviedo, David Bednar and Nick Mears. That trio could start seeing innings in high leverage situations by the end of the year.

However, that’s also a lot of ‘if’s’ going into 2021. If Kevin Newman can continue to drive the ball out of Spring and if the young pitchers are able to pitch well in their first taste of big league action. Some will come to fruition but overall there’s still a handful of question marks surrounding the team.

Can Gregory Polanco stay healthy and can he be productive, even to a league average level? What will the middle infield produce this year? Can Colin Moran keep his 2020 pace up throughout an entire season? Will this be the year Mitch Keller can breakout? Who’s going to play centerfield and how productive will that be?

I also expect the overall team to be better because of addition by subtraction. Between Josh Bell, Jarrod Dyson and JT Riddle, the trio had a -1.5 fWAR through a total of 347 plate appearances, or just about 16.3% of all the plate appearances taken by Pirates batters in 2020. On the pitching side of things, Trevor Williams, Dovydas Neverauskas, Derek Holland and Miguel Del Pozo tossed 118.2 innings and had a -1.1 fWAR.

Their total innings accounted for 22.9% of all innings tossed among Pirate pitchers in 2020. It’s also worth mentioning that Neverauskas, Del Pozo, Nik Turley, Yacksel Rios and Robbie Erlin accounted for 15% of all  earned runs the Pittsburgh Pirates gave up, yet the total numbers of batters they faced accounted for just 10.7% of all batters faced in 2020.

Now sure, the 2021 Pirates aren’t going to be devoid of negative-WAR guys who will see a notable amount of playing time. However there’s a lot more upside going into 2021. There is no Miguel Del Pozo on the roster. There is no J.T. Riddle taking up playing time. Instead of Del Pozo taking up one of the last bullpen spots, it’s going to be someone like Geoff Hartlieb, Sam Howard, or Clay Holmes. Instead of Riddle serving as one of the utility men, it’s going to be Phillip Evans, Cole Tucker or Erik Gonzalez.

The 2021 Pittsburgh Pirates aren’t going to be good, but I expect them to be average bad. They’re not going to lose 110 games, nor are they going to be a .500 team. I expect them to be a 95-98 loss team when you consider the division they are in and the players coming up through the farm system.