Pittsburgh Pirates 2021 Draft: Breaking Down Pick #37 and #64

The Pittsburgh Pirates are in a position to add some serious prospect talent this year in the Draft. What comes after the first pick?

The Pittsburgh Pirates have the first overall pick in the 2021 Draft.  There are three players who could be taken with that selection, Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker, or Jordan Lawlar.  If the Draft was tomorrow, Jack Leiter would likely be the pick.  If I were to put percentages on it right now I would say 75 percent Leiter, 20 percent Rocker, and 5 percent Lawlar.

Right now, a big focal point for Pittsburgh Pirates fans is how the University of Vanderbilt performs each weekend.  Rocker and Leiter typically pitch back to back every weekend, with Rocker getting the “prime time” starts.  Both are performing well, but Leiter has proven the most this year.  With that being said, a lot can change between now and July 11th.

While the first overall pick should garner the bulk of attention, the Pittsburgh Pirates will have a very high second round pick as well.  The Bucs will also select at pick 37 overall, which gives them another opportunity to add a top prospect.  This selection will also take place on July 11th giving the team two picks inside the top 40.  That means they are guaranteed two of the top 40 prospects in the Draft, if not higher, depending on who is on the board.

So who could be on the board for the Pittsburgh Pirates at pick 37?  Obviously it is hard to say right now, there are just so many variables that go into that equation.  One of those variables for any team is the Front Office.  Every team’s Front Office has a different approach to the Draft.  Some teams look for the best available talent, some look to get creative with their bonus pool, and others simply focus on specific areas depending on the year.

Last year I focused a lot of my Draft preparation on the new  guys in charge of the Front Office, General Manager Ben Cherington and Assistant General Manager Steve Sanders.  Both of them were in charge of the Toronto Blue Jays Draft process.  The Draft is a place the Blue Jays have had a lot of success in recent years, with those two being a big part of the reason why.  So what did they do in Toronto?  That was the question I wanted to answer.

To summarize, Cherington and Sanders prefer college players in the first, and even more so hitters.  Also, they seemed to prioritize highly athletic players who played multiple positions.  This is not in a utility sense, but rather a player at the college or high school level to play well at other positions shows how athletic the player is. These two also seem to like to take college early, save money and use the savings on a top prep prospect.  Also, college players are easier to project, have less risky, and save money.  Prep players are more expensive and harder to project, are more of a roll of the dice to succeed compared with the round they are drafted, and are why you see them being taken later in the Draft.

In terms of pitchers, Cherington and Sanders seem to have a similar approach.  Often they were looking at pitchers who also played in the field and/or have projectable size.  This sounds similar to the previous regimes Draft approach in terms of pitchers.  The one difference is that the new Front Office is also using spin-rates and other pitching metrics to measure these pitchers, hence why the smaller, but more electric Leiter should be the favorite at pick number one.

So what does all of that mean?  Well, reports leading up to the Pittsburgh Pirates 2020 first round pick suggested the Bucs would take Nick Gonzales (INF) or Emerson Hancock (RHP) depending on who would be available.  Gonzales was the pick, as Hancock went off the board to the Mariners right before the Bucs selection.  If the team would have had to decide between the two of them, they likely would have went with Gonzales, as the Front Office prefers hitters over pitchers.

That will not be the case for the Pittsburgh Pirates this year.  The team will take Rocker or Leiter with the first overall pick, a college arm.  Both those players will get close to their slot bonus, especially because they are college players.  In 2020, first overall pick Spencer Torkelson signed to his projected slot amount.  The two previous years saw Adley Rutschman and Casey Mize go first overall out of the college ranks, and both signed for less than their slot.

The more interesting look is Mize, the last college pitcher to be taken first overall.  His slot value was $8.1 million and he took a deal at $7.5 million, saving the Tigers about $600,000 to use towards other picks.  This allowed the Tigers to be aggressive with their second pick, prep outfielder Parker Meadows (Austin’s brother) who received an over slot deal.

Ben Cherington and Steve Sanders did this in last year’s Draft.  The team took two college players early in Gonzales and Carmen Mlodzinski, and used the slight savings to go over-slot on the 44th overall pick Jared Jones. I would expect the Pittsburgh Pirates regime to take a similar approach this year, especially given how the board looks now.

The team also has a competitive balance pick number 64, which gives the club additional bonus pool money to be creative with.  So with with the assumption that Leiter or Rocker go number one, I would expect the team two go in one of two directions.  The first would be for them to take a high-upside, athletic prep player and follow with a college player at number 64.  The other option, which could be more rewarding, would be to take another college player at number 37, and use the combined savings with the first two picks to grab that top prospect who slides due to demands.

Either way the team is in a great spot to add serious talent to their system.  The important thing to remember is that the Pittsburgh Pirates path to success is through the the minor league system.  It is crucial that Ben Cherington and Steve Sanders continue to build the system, and having success in the Draft is one of, if not the, most important element along with developing them after.  The Pittsburgh Pirates need their number overall pick to be a Franchise Player, but they also have an opportunity to add more top talent with their other picks, and that should not be over looked.