Pittsburgh Pirates Minors: 2021 an Important Season for Michael Burrows

The future role of Pittsburgh Pirates pitching prospect Michael Burrows could be dependent on how he performs in this upcoming minor league season

The Pittsburgh Pirates used their 11th round pick in 2018 to select pitcher Michael Burrows out of Waterford High School in Connecticut. Burrows has yet to play a full season professionally. While I do believe he could potentially be part of the long-term plans for the Pirates, 2021 could be an important season in deciding what role he plays.

Burrows started his career off with an impressive 19 inning scoreless streak lasting from 2018 into the first part of 2019. In 2018, Burrows tossed 14 scoreless innings, however only had a 17.7% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate.

The following season, Burrows was promoted to Low-A West Virginia where he had a 4.33 ERA and 1.46 WHIP, but a much more solid 3.54 FIP, and 3.75 xFIP. Burrows saw his walk rate take a step backward as he walked 10.1% of all the batters he faced. His strikeout rate did improve, but to just a 22.3% rate. However, Burrows did show an ability to limit the long ball, putting up a 0.41 HR/9 rate in 43.2 innings.

However, what makes 2021 important for Burrows is determining his long-term role with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Of the 15 games the right-hander has appeared in, he’s come out of the bullpen just once. So far, his bottom line numbers have been pretty decent, having a career 3.28 ERA, 3.26 FIP and 1.28 WHIP through 57.2 innings of work. The only two home runs he gave up came in 2019, but his strikeout and walk rates aren’t too great. Burrows’ career walk rate sits at 9.8% while his strikeout rate is at 21.3%. Not awful rates, but certainly not great numbers either.

But what puts his future as a starter into question is his pitch repertoire. He’s a two-pitch pitcher. Both his fastball and curveball are considered plus pitches. His four-seam fastball sits in the 90-94 MPH range, but his lack of velo is made up by his spin rate. Burrows averages about 2550 RPM with the offering which would have put him around the top 95th+ percentile in baseball in 2020. His curveball also has plenty of spin. This offering averaged out at 2800 RPM. This would have put him well into the 85th percentile of curveball spin rate in 2020 as well.

However, he doesn’t have a true third pitch. MLB Pipeline gives him a 45-grade changeup, however states that it’s noticeably behind his first two offerings. FanGraphs doesn’t even grade a third pitch, giving him future grades of 55 and 60 for his fastball and curveball.

The Pittsburgh Pirates will definitely give Burrows a chance to prove himself as a starting pitcher. He’s yet to even throw 100 innings professionally. He’ll likely spend the 2021 season as a rotation arm for one of the Pirates’ Single-A affiliates and potentially make his way into the upper minors before the end of the season. Even if the Bucs do eventually move Burrows to the bullpen they aren’t going to be short of future rotation options, and it will give them yet another bullpen prospect with the potential to be a top tier late inning arm.