Pittsburgh Pirates: Projecting Top 5 Prospects at the End of 2021

Number 1 – Pitcher Quinn Priester

The first three prospects are completely interchangeable in my opinion, but I have Quinn Priester ranking as the team’s top prospect. The Pittsburgh Pirates’ first-round pick in 2019 Priester received seemingly never ending praise this offseason because of his work at instructional ball.

Priester went into 2020 unranked, but now is considered a top 50-60 prospect range by many sits. MLB Pipeline has him at #52 and FanGraphs puts him at #45. Priester saw massive improvements to his curveball which went from an offering with a 55-future grade to an offering with an 80-futue grade, which is the highest possible grade you can get for any tool. He also has a plus fastball that he can run up into the upper-90s, a slider and changeup that are projected to be average pitches at the very least.

Priester hasn’t pitched much professionally. However, in the very few innings he has thrown, he’s been impressive. In 36.2 innings in 2019, the right-hander had a 3.19 ERA, 2.83 FIP and 1.25 WHIP. He allowed just a single home run while having a healthy 25.8% strikeout rate, and 8.8% walk rate.

Priester will get a good long look in 2021. Given his improved ability, he’s easily a guy who could not only be the Pirates’ best prospect, but also be one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball.

Number 2 – Pitcher Jack Leiter

This is assuming the Pittsburgh Pirates go this direction in this summer’s MLB Draft and select Jack Leiter with the top overall pick, making him the organization’s second best prospect behind Priester. Leiter has been dominant in 2021 as Vanderbilt’s co-ace and dominant might just be the biggest understatement to describe Leiter.

He’s tossed 42 innings, but has allowed just 2 earned run while striking out nearly half of all the batters he’s faced (46.1%) and letting up just one long ball. He’s also allowed just 10 batters to get a hit off of him for a 2.1 hits/9 rate. Let’s also not forget he’s thrown a no-hitter. Walks have been a bit of an issue at times, but his 10.4% walk rate isn’t awful.

Leiter has a four pitch mix with all of his offerings grading out as above average. His fastball took major steps forward in 2021 going from a pitch that sits around 90-93 MPH to one that sits around 96-98 MPH and has even reached into triple digits. This pairs well with his curveball, slider and changeup, all of which are seen as offerings he can absolutely use to get outs in the future.

Having two pitchers with ace potential leading off your list is very impressive. Leiter could easily be up there with Priester as two of the best pitching prospects in all of baseball. What’s even more impressive is that he won’t be the last pitching prospect we take a look at today.

Number 3 – Infielder Nick Gonzales

The Pittsburgh Pirates could have a third former first-round pick in their top 3 organizational prospects in Nick Gonzales. Again, he could easily be the team’s best prospect as the first three players are as interchangeable as you can get.

The team selected Gonzales with the 7th overall selection in 2020’s draft. Gonzales absolutely mashed in college. He batted .399/.502/.747 with 37 home runs, 39 doubles and .510 wOBA through 596 trips to the plate. He rarely struckout with a 13.3% strikeout rate, but walked a ton, at a 14.9% clip. Sure, it was at a hitter friendly level, but he put many doubts to rest when he hit .340/.439/.610 with a .400 wOBA in 190 plate appearances. His plate discipline was still good at the Cape Cod League with a 10.5% walk rate and 13.2% strikeout rate.

Gonzales was seen as probably the best pure hitter available as his ability to make consistent and hard contact paired with his plate discipline make him a perfect top of the lineup hitter. He could easily be the Pirates’ number two hitter as he has the ability to drive in the lead-off man, while also being a table setter for many of the other big bats the Pittsburgh Pirates are projected to have.

The one knock on Gonzales was his fielding. Overall, he’s currently considered an average fielder with so-so range at second base. He got some work at shortstop during his final year at college ball, but doesn’t have the arm to stick at short. However, he worked with former Pirate and arguably a top 15 defensive shortstop of all-time, Jack Wilson over the offseason. Hopefully, some of Jumpin’ Jack’s advice rubbed off on Gonzales as it’s really his only potential weak spot.

Number 4 – Pitcher Brennan Malone

Now let’s take a look at the yet another pitcher we’ll talk about today, right-hander Brennan Malone. Overall, the Bucs have a ton of notable pitching prospects. Malone was considered one of the top prep arms in the 2019 draft, and up there with Priester in that category.

The Arizona Diamondbacks took the right-hander with the 33rd overall pick. However, he was projected to go a lot sooner than when he was selected, but signing concerns bumped him down a handful of spots. He was part of the Starling Marte trade and while he wasn’t the headliner, he could easily be the best of the two pieces that come out of it.

Malone has yet to even toss a whole game’s worth of professional innings yet, but definitely has shown the stuff that makes top of the line pitchers. He has a fastball with a future grade of 60, average out in the 92-96 MPH range, but has touched 99 MPH with. Both his slider and curveball grade out as above average pitches as well with a 55-future grade and his changeup is technically his worst pitch, but a fourth offering that is projected to be at least a 50-grade offering.

Like Priester, Malone will get a good long look by the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2021. He’s only going into his age-20 season, so he still has two or so years before we see him reach the Majors. However, his stuff is already very highly regarded and is a third pitcher who could become one of the Bucs’ best. He could be the team’s next Priester, going unranked to a consensus top 50 prospect.

Number 5 – Infielder Liover Peguero

Liover Peguero was the main piece coming back in the Starling Marte trade. Peguero is generally considered the second best shortstop prospect in the Pirate system behind Oneil Cruz. However, it’s likely Cruz ends up playing another position other than shortstop. In my opinion, Peguero is the Pirates’ best pure shortstop and has a higher floor than Cruz.

The middle infielder spent his 2019 season with the Diamondbacks’ Low-A and Rookie-Ball affiliates. 138 of his 249 trips to the plate were taken at Rookie-Ball where he clocked in with a strong .364/.410/.559 line, .443 wOBA and 153 wRC+. When he was promoted to Low-A, he put up a much less productive, albeit still solid .262/.333/.357 line, .329 wOBA and 101 wRC+. However, one positive to come out of his promotion was an improvement in plate discipline. Peguero was able to cut down his strikeout rate from 21.8% to 18.3% while raising his walk rate from 7.7% to 8.6%.

Peguero’s hit tool is in the elite/near-elite category coming in with a 60-future grade. It’s his best tool, however not his only above average tool. His speed, fielding and arm all are projected as 55-grade abilities. There is just one question, that being his power.

Peguero only had a .159 ISO in 2019 and previously stood at just 6’1″, 160 lpounds. However, it seems he added some bulk over the off season. Now he weighed in at the same height, but at 200 pounds. Peguero had an average exit velo of a very solid 90 MPH and 42% hard hit rate. But now given his added bulk, he could see both of those take a step forward and see his overall power projections rise.

Going into the 2021 season Peguero projects as a four-tool player. He has a good hit tool, is a plus runner, can field his position well and has the arm to stick at shortstop long term. If he can just get his power to an average level, he could be one of the best shortstops in all of baseball within the next few seasons, and make for a deadly double play combo with Gonzales for years to come.

Honorable Mentions

The Pirate farm system is loaded with high-ceiling/floor prospects. There’s a lot of other names that could easily crack the top 5 Pirate prospects. With so many other players I wanted to put at the number 5 spot, I think it’s worth mentioning a few of those guys.

Oneil Cruz

2021 is a very pivotal year in Oneil Cruz’s development. His power potential is immense. He has an 80-future raw power grade and 60-future game power grade. The only question is what his final position will be and if he can improve his hit tool. However, a big year from the slugger could easily catapult him into the Pittsburgh Pirates top 5 prospects, and possibly even get him back to being a consensus top 50-100 prospect.

Travis Swaggerty

The Pittsburgh Pirates selected center fielder Travis Swaggerty with their first-round pick in 2018. His calling card is his speed and defense, having a 65-speed grade and future 60 fielding and arm grades on FanGraphs. He also has some raw power with a 60-future grade there, 89 MPH exit velo and 41% hard hit rate in 2019. He also had a really solid .266/.347 BA/OBP, but he’s yet to translate that raw power into game power. In 2019, his isolated slugging percentage was just .116. If he can continue to hit around .270/.350 while improving his ISO to the .150-.200 range in 2021, combined with his defensive value, he could be one of the Bucs’ top 5 prospects.

Hudson Head

Another center field prospect that could become one of the organization’s best prospects is Hudson Head. He was the headliner among a large prospect package coming back to the Pittsburgh Pirates in the Joe Musgrove trade (congrats to him for throwing a no hitter by the way). Head easily has the talent to be a five-tool player and could have went in the first round of the 2019 draft. However, he was picked in the third-round as scouts didn’t get a good look at him playing baseball as he was his high school team’s quarterback. In the very little time he’s played so far, he has a .375 wOBA, 119 wRC+ and has displayed solid plate discipline. Like Swags, he already has the plate discipline and consistent contact part of his game down. If he can translate that raw power into game power, you’re looking at a very valuable prospect.

Tahnaj Thomas

Tahnaj Thoams showed massive improvement to his control when he got to the Pittsburgh Pirates’ organization in 2019. He has a big fastball, one he can run into triple digits and a plus breaking ball. The only question he has remaining to answer is if he can develop his changeup into a more effective offering. With so much talent and good work ethic, that third offering could come with ease for the flamethrowing right-hander. If he can master that third pitch, look out, the Pittsburgh Pirates could have four pitchers in their inner circle of prospects.

Carmen Mlodzinski

When I said the Pittsburgh Pirates have a ton of notable pitching prospects, I wasn’t joking. Carmen Mlodzinski is a right-handed pitcher the team selected with their competitive balance pick in the 2020 draft. His numbers throughout college weren’t the greatest, but he performed well at the Cape Cod League. He also has three offerings that are projected to be, at the very least, average pitches giving him a good repertoire.